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Bet Your Own Prices

A beginner's guide to framing a betting market . . .

Denton Jardine

 

Regular contributor Denton Jardine analyses the entire process of 'framing a betting market' from a punter's angle. Now can you draw up your own reliable set of prices, so you can bet the overlays with the bookies or on the tote? Denton takes you through the necessary steps in this beginner's guide to producing a betting market.

There is a misguided belief among rank-and-file punters that bookmakers know something they don't know when they compile a betting market. I can tell you that basically this is a myth. When a bookie puts up his prices, he is merely offering an opinion. Nothing more.

Most bookies employ price-setters who, using their opinion, provide a set of prices. But what happens from that point is up to the punters. Prices can fluctuate madly, as we all know, when the law of supply and demand sets to work before a race.

So, having said all this, I now say that you have nothing to fear but fear itself as far as framing your own market goes. There's no great mystery to it. You do not need to have 'inside information' or be at trackwork at 5 am every day. You don't need a law degree to work out the percentages.

THE TIME AND THE PATIENCE... GOT THOSE?

What you do need is the time and the patience to sit down, study the form, draw up your main chances - and then set about putting prices on their chances. Ask yourself if Horse A was to run in the race 100 times, how many times could it be expected to win it? You might say, well, his form is okay but not that good, he might just get away with a few of those 100 races. In this case, you can start looking at 25/1 or 33/1 about Horse A. But this is just a general overview, a sort of summing up of what is required. If you have enough knowledge, you should be able to assess quite accurately, overall, what price is reasonable about every horse in a race.

You will know from your experience of racing that Horse B, say, is not a bad conveyance, but not one you would want to back at less than around 3/1. Another horse might make stronger appeal; you might feel happy and confident accepting 2/1 about it.

In drawing up a market on a race, you have to put yourself in a bookmaker's shoes, so to speak. He sets prices in a way which enables him to bet what is called "over round" - now, in racing terms, 'round' means 100 per cent and 'over round' means the figure the bookie sets his prices to, in a bid to make a profit. Let's say it's 120 per cent. That 20 per cent is his hoped-for margin, or he takes in $120 in bets and pays out only $100 to the punters.

It doesn't always work out that way, of course, and the bookie is grateful if he can get away with 6 to 10 per cent on a regular basis. The truth is that bookies often bet to 'losing' figures; they gamble, in fact, and take risks in a bid to attract business.

RISKS? WHY TAKE THEM?

You do not have to take risks. The 'book' as far as you are concerned is completely within your hands. You don't have to worry about turnover tax, or paying betting clerks. Your sole task is to work out your selections and then put a price on them. It's a bit like deciding to sell your car - you know how much you want and you also know you won't go below a certain price. It's the same with your selections.

You are valuing them in the market place. If you cannot get your price, then don't bother. If, in reality, you can pick a certain amount of winners, at a certain average price, and you always obtain better than your predicted price, then you will end up winning.

Let's say you can pick 30 winners which you price at 5/2 in every 100 bets. If you achieved the 5/2, you would bet 100 units for a return of 30 x 3.5 equalling 105, a small 5 per cent profit. But if you were able to secure the overlay average of 7/2 about each winner, then your return would be 30 x 4.5, equalling 135 units. Your profit has shot up enormously.

The main point to be aware of when you sit down to compile your prices is that you must be sure of your facts - that is, do all you can to ensure the selections you have made, in order of preference, are as solid as you can make them.

And don't get all concerned if you see that the morning newspaper market doesn't agree with you. This is usually a good sign that you could be on to value runners!

By this point, you will have decided which approach suits you best. On this page I have given two clear examples of how you can easily frame a market, based on your own judgment, and also with the help of strong 'factors' which always influence the outcome of a race.

It helps, I have found, if you can identify 5 or 6 main chances in each race. Once you have done this, you can price this group then worry briefly about the horses you consider have only rough chances. The group you select should make up the main portion of your market percentages.

You can work to 100 per cent, or frame your market to a lower or higher percentage. To be realistic, I always feel that a market should be set to around 115 to 120 per cent. The way things are in the betting market place, a set of prices framed to this percentage mark is going to reflect 'virtual reality' much more than one set to 90 or 100 per cent.

Practical Punting - August 1995

 

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