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Global Grabbers

'Spot play' plans from around the world

Jon Hudson

 

Because we're all in the same boat (often a leaky one!), punters around the world are united
in a common cause. How can we pick horses that win at good-enough prices to enable us to make a profit?

From time to time in PPM we've published details of systems and staking ideas from around
the world, mostly from the United States and Britain. (There seems to be a void of ideas
where South African racing is concerned!)

Many of our home-grown ideas are just as good as those we import. Race ratings have probably
been as deep-rooted in Australian racing as anywhere else, if not more so. When applied to
system making, ratings can be a most useful tool.

The following is a ratings approach that combines the elements of three ratings plans I have
collected over the years, from Australia, Britain and America; a real United Nations, in fact.

THE GLOBAL GRABBER

(1) Operate on any city race meeting. If operating at the provincials, or country meetings,
bet only on Open, Welter and Class 6 races.

(2) Consider only the top six horses in the betting.

(3) Eliminate any of these horses who have not raced for 29 days or more.

(4) Apply the following rating points based on each contender's last four starts:

1st 2nd 3rd 4th LAST START 80 60 40 20; TWO BACK 60 40 20 10; THREE BACK 50 20 10
10; FOUR BACK 35 20 10 0.

Let's say a contender has run 1st-5th-4th-3rd at its last four starts. The points would be
allotted as follows: 80-0-10-10, a total of 100. If a horse had run 2nd-2nd-3rd-1st, then
the points would be 60-40-1035, totalling 145.

(5) Once you have a points score for each of the contending runners, you then reduce the
total to 10 per cent (i.e. 100 score would reduce to 10, 145 would reduce to 14.5).

(6) Now, deduct each runner's pre-race price from its total and that outcome becomes the
final rating score. For example: Six contenders with the following points scores:

(1) 15 at 13/4 11.75 pts (2) 14.5 at 4/1 10.5 pts (3) 11 at 7/1 4 pts (4) 11 at 7/1
4 pts (5) 21 at 13/2 14.5 pts (6) 9 at 10/1 1 pt.

The selections, then, would be: 5-1-2. The approach takes into account order of betting,
fitness and recent form; three very valuable form factors.

This is as good as any short ratings approach I have seen in sorting out the top contenders in the betting. Naturally, there will be races where the
winner comes from outside the top six but in 85-plus per cent of races the winner will be
among the six horses you have rated.

If there are more than six horses on the first six lines of betting, you consider all of them. A
point to remember, of course, is that the more contenders there are, the harder it'll be to
nail the winner!

NOW TO THE UK

Now let's take a look at a system from Britain, which I've noticed doing rather well down
through the years. It's a typical easy-to-follow, spot-play method that will appeal, I'm sure,
to the small-bet punters among you who like a bit of fun, and who are always looking for
'wildcat' selections to pop into your trifectas.

The system, which I call The Three-Coder Plan, can be operated at the dogs and trots as well
as the gallops. It examines some of the best runners in any race and comes up with sensible
selections.

THE THREE-CODER PLAN

(1) Operate on any race, any meetings, gallops, trots or dogs.

(2) The various codes:

HORSES: Consider only the first six horses in the handicap, or in the case of Set Weights
races, the first six in the betting.

TROTS: Consider only the first five in barrier order.

DOGS: Consider only the dogs drawn in boxes 1-2-3-7-8.

(3) To become a bet, a runner must have had ONE WIN only in its last three starts, plus two
other placings (2nds or 3rds).

(4) If there is more than one selection, back the horse (or dog) which is the most fancied in
the pre-race betting market.

AND BACK HOME...

Now we come to one of my favourite systems. As we know, Welters are considered by
professionals to be the best betting races. Form from these races usually works out
consistently.

Weight comparisons mostly work out accurately when runners are lined up against each
other from previous races. This system will suit bettors who like to back favourites
because it concentrates its attention on pre-post favs in the Welters, but only if they are
carrying 57kg or less (ignore apprentice claims). So if a pre-race fav has 57.5kg or more,
it's not a bet.

THE WELTER WONDERS PLAN

(1) Operate on Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan races on Wednesdays and Saturdays.

(2) Operate on Welter races only.

(3) Consider only the pre-race favourite in your morning newspaper guide.

(4) The favourite becomes a selection if it is carrying 57kg or less (ignore allowances for
apprentices).

You'll often find that when betting ceases, your selection has not ended up as favourite. When
we did a test for our Treasury of World Racing Plans a few years ago, winners arrived paying
7/1 and 5/1 in the test period. Further testing has shown that the system works better on
Sydney racing than on Melbourne's.

If you wanted to, you could axe Melbourne altogether and simply concentrate on the Sydney Welters.

Prizemoney has often featured in systems through the years and it can certainly be a great
help in pinpointing top chances in a race. It's not the be-all and end-all (what is??) but it's
a great starting point when you are trying to determine the class of one horse against the
others.

The more money a horse has earned, the better it can be considered. If you look for horses
with high earning power and align this angle with some sensible elimination factors, you are
well on your way to finding winners.

THE PRIZEMONEY PLAN

(1) Operate on city meetings, and STRONG provincial meetings.

(2) Operate only on Open handicaps, Welters and Group 1, 2 and 3 races (WFA, Set Weights
and Handicaps).

(3) The contender is the horse with the highest total prizemoney.

(4) If the horse is 15/4 or lower in the betting, ignore it. If it's 4/1 or longer, it remains a
contender.

(5) The contender must have a win-strike rate of 25 per cent or more. If not, pass the race.
If it does, it remains a contender.

(6) The contender must be ridden by a GOOD senior jockey.

The system, then, is interested in a top-prizemoney earner only when it can fulfil the other
aspects, like value odds, good win strike and top rider. What a great combination! How could
you not be on a good bet?

AND OFF TO THE UK AGAIN...

Finally, a system from the UK which was published in a book in the late '40s called One
Hundred Famous Racing Systems. It's the Simplicity Form System, designed to give sound
selections with just a glance at the morning newspaper formguide.

THE SIMPLICITY PLAN

(1) Operate on any race meeting.

(2) The system selection is the highest-weighted last-start winner.

All you do, then, is look for a last start winner carrying the biggest weight in a race. Simple
as that, and yet it comes up with lots of winners and placegetters.

It's an ideal system for finding a value runner to throw into your doubles or trifectas.

Practical Punting - February 1999

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