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Novel Ways To Attack The Form

System rev-up

'Red' Carley

With this article, we introduce a new contributor, 'Red' Carley, a Melbourne based freelance writer who has been following racing, and betting his own systems, for more than 25 years.

How can an ordinary punter get to grips with drawing up his or her own system of selection and betting? It's probably not as difficult as it may seem - and for those who tackle it, there can be lots of fun checking out the progress ... without investing a cent!

System rules can be contained in three categories: Power Factors, Essentials and Tighteners.

It's among the 'tighteners' that we find a great many questionable or 'kidding yourself' rules, such as 'minimum strike rate of 25%', 'no more than 50% places' or 'no females against males', etc.

The best systems attempt to steer clear of too many tightener rules. I have always believed that if a system contains too many rules it is usually leading only to those horses that everyone else is going to find!

 

BEING DIFFERENT

And surely the idea of a system is to find the bets that others don't want or are happy to ignore.

The following are some of the best power factors I have used in my systems' creating:

- Good form cycle

- Comfortable last-start winner

- Big drop in weight in high-class race

- Favourable jockey switch

- Last race within 15 days

- Course and distance winner

- Winning horse-jockey combination

- Good trackwork hitouts

Bearing all these power factors in mind, you can easily move on to designing a handicapping approach which incorporates two or more of them.

 

MULTIPLE POWER FACTORS

Let's say that to be a selection, a horse must have multiple power factors, meaning two or more, preferably three, from the above rules.

I think any selection should have a 'good form cycle'. Whenever I start devising a system - and it's something I do as a hobby all the time - I always use that factor. I strongly believe that without good form in recent starts a horse has a lot against it. Facts and figures prove that to be so.

You can make a system out of any of the power factors. The following is one of my own favourites. It's a plan I drew up many years back and it has served me well since then, enabling me to strike a lot of big trifectas and doubles.

 

THE REV-UP PLAN

(1) Check only Open Handicaps and Welters at city tracks. Do not consider any other races or meetings.

(2) Each horse starts off with 10 points.

(3) Eliminate any runner who has not won five or more races. Most starters in these races will have achieved five wins at least but sometimes there are runners who don't have that many wins to their name.

(4) If a horse has a top jockey aboard, it gets one bonus point.

(5) If there has been a significant jockey switch, add one more bonus point.

(6) If a horse has a good form cycle (three latest runs containing 1, 2, 3 or 4 in the form figures), then allot two bonus points.

(7) Last-start winners get one bonus point.

(8) Horses beaten five lengths or more last start are penalised two points.

(9) If a horse is on the first three lines of betting, it gets one bonus point.

(10) If a horse hasn't raced for 22 days or longer, it is penalised two points.

(11) If a horse ran a placing (1st, 2nd or 3rd) last start at odds of 15/1 or longer, it gets one bonus point.

(12) If a horse is quoted at a shorter price for the current race than it started last start, it gets one bonus point.

 

IT TAKES TIME, BUT ONLY FOR A FEW RACES

This is a system that takes a little time to work out but that should not be a worry because you are not operating it on a lot of races. Remember, you are interested only in Open Handicaps and Welters. Usually, there will not be more than three races on a card to worry about, mostly only two.

If you try to play all the races, you will be spending a great deal of time working out the selections and you will end up having too many bets. It's much better, I have found, to confine yourself to the better quality races.

I'm a man who would rather have two bets of $6 than eight bets of $1.50. It's as simple as that. Two bets can make me a lot more money than eight bets at a reduced stake.

When it comes to backing your system selections, my advice is that you bet small and try to win big. For me, this means betting in doubles mainly, and then throwing in the occasional trifecta.

I like to use a system selection in one race as a 'banker' and then link it with two or three others in another leg, again selections from a system. This is a $3 linkup for a 1 x 3 bet, and if I don't have any more action at the meeting I'll double the stake for a $6 outlay.

As you can see, I am not a big bettor. I bet for fun. If I lose, well, there's no real damage done. But when I win I can turn my little dollars into a healthy windfall. I've struck doubles worth up to $300 with my small outlay - and all thanks to the various systems I have dreamed up.

In the coming months, I hope to contribute more to PPM, and to bring you the details of the systems I consider to be my best.

Practical Punting - April 1997

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