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Seven Steps To Success - Part 1

Pick out the key factors

Damien Whitchurch

 

There are "steps" I could mention as making up the pathway to success. Some have more oomph than others.

Our task as punters is to recognise the key steps, or factors, that can put us a step ahead of the pack on the road to profits.

Knowing how to read your formguide properly is a skill that can only come from practice. I admit to spending a lifetime poring over the form. It's something I have thoroughly enjoyed. Others may prefer a game of golf. For me, it's a Sportsman in my hands!

FITNESS

For me, FITNESS is the first step along the way. Unfortunately, there really isn't one clear statistic in the form that can tell you whether a horse is fit or not. The punter must make that assumption himself.

What are the most important factors? Recency of latest start and the number of wins and placings a horse has put together in recent starts. I hold the belief that recency of latest start has to be regarded as most important.

A horse whose last start was within the previous seven days is much more likely to be fitter than a horse that had its last start 14 or 21 days ago.

Horses resuming from a spell, or even a letup, will always have a question mark over their fitness, though a percentage of them do win (most don't).

Horses that do win first-up are usually specifically trained to do just that when resuming. They are easily recognisable from the formguide particulars (just take a look at the first-up comments).

To make use of our definition of "fitness" we must apportion a figure to it for ratings purposes, or for simply working off a horse's handicapped weight.

I use a bonus of 0.5 to 1kg for horses that have raced within the last 7 days. If the last start was between 8 and 21 days ago I give a bonus of 0.5kg. If you're using a ratings figure on each horse, then the bonus is ADDED to the rating figure; if you are going to work off the handicapped weights, then you DEDUCT the bonus from the allotted weight.

Now, for horses that haven't raced for at least 22 days, I give them a penalty which equals half a kilo for every week they've been away from the track. That is, then, 1.5kg for 3 weeks off, 2kg for 4 weeks off, 2.5kg for 5 weeks, 3kg for 6 weeks, and so on.

These penalties, using ratings, are deducted from the rating figure but if you are using the handicapped weight (e.g. 57) as the "base", then the penalty is ADDED to the weight.

This approach has served me well for a long time and I recommend it to you.

CONSISTENCY AND RECENCY

Now we come to the second step of our journey, which centres on consistency, or a horse's win-strike percentage. These stats are readily available in our formguides.

I like to take "recent consistency" as the best indicator of a horse's win-strike ability. What he did two years ago is not really relevant (that's my view, anyway).

What I do is look it a horse's last eight starts but more particularly its last four starts. This helps to tie in fitness with consistency, two crucial elements in the form.

So how do we apportion the "form points" for this aspect of things? My approach is based on win and place consistency and goes as follows:

(1) If the horse hasn't won or run a place in its 1st 4 starts it is penalised 2kg.

(2) A win and one placing in its last 4 starts equals 1kg bonus.

(3) Two wins out of its last 4 starts, or 3 placings from the last 4 starts, gets a bonus of 1.5kg.

(4) Three wins from the last 4 starts, or 4 placings, gets a bonus, of 2.5kg.

(5) Four wins from list 4 starts merits a 1.5kg bonus.

Now we are starting to really get "into" the form. We have tested the runners for fitness and recent consistency and we have penalised them or given them bonuses.

After this is done, we start to get a new angle on which horses are starting to look solid prospects, and which ones have only negatives going for them.

In regards to point (5), it is often the case that a horse that has been able to win four in a row is unable to win the fifth race. This is why I hand out a bonus of only 1.5kg. My experience has been that we often are just chasing dreams if expecting a horse to deliver five successive wins.

But we still need to appreciate what the horse has done, and so a bonus is given, though below what might have been anticipated.

Next week in Punting Tutor, I will conclude this series with a look at the remaining five steps. This will complete the jigsaw and enable us to analyse any race, any track.

 

Practical Punting - November 2001

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