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Seven Steps To Success - Part 2

The riddle of peak performance

Damien Whitchurch

 

Last month, I took you through my ideas on analysing fitness and recent form and conditions. I am winding up the series with my views on other areas of the form.

As I stated then, our task as punters is to recognise the key steps, or factors, that can help to keep us a step or two ahead of the pack, thus stealing an "edge" on our fellow punters. We can only do this by adopting sensible selection approaches.

Each horse is different. Some will do better early in a campaign: others might take three, four or even five runs to build to peak condition. Because we just can't accurately predict these performance patterns, we have to adopt some rules that attempt to cover the whole situation.

My general belief is that MOST horses are unlikely to win before their third or fourth run in a preparation. That means I am downplaying the likelihood of wins by first-uppers and second-uppers. So I think we have to look for horses that have at least two form figures following a spell (thus, say, x44, or x37, etc.). The "x" signifies a spell (sometimes an "s" is used).

The following are the rules I use to try to get the picture as accurately pinned down as possible.

MY FINING-DOWN RULES

(1) If a horse is resuming from a spell, it attracts no bonus or penalty. I just leave that area alone. Some horses may have shown a tendency to race well fresh from a spell but this is a factor that we cannot rely on as being repeatable.

(2) If a horse has had one run back from a spell, I give it a bonus of 1kg.

(3) If a horse has had two runs back from a spell, I give it a bonus of 2kg.

(4) If a horse has had three to five starts back from a spell, I give it a bonus of 2.5kg.

(5) If a horse has had six or more starts back from a spell, I usually give it a bonus of 3kg.

You can use these figures in conjunction with the information and "scores" I listed in the

November PPM article.

THE GOING

Now we come to the critical "ability to handle the going". This is dealt with very easily:

(1) If a horse has won in similar going before, it gets a 2kg bonus.

(2) If a horse has had three or more starts in similar going and has not won or placed, it is penalised 2kg.

BARRIERS

Barrier positions are next up and I never make too much of a fuss of them. I do think horses drawn wider are disadvantaged to some degree but it varies from race to race according to the size of the fields. I have compiled the following scoreline:

(1) If a horse is drawn in the outside 4 in the field, with runners totalling 13 or more, it is penalised 1kg.

This enables us to cover the big fields. As an example, in a 20-horse field, the only runners penalised are those in 17, 18, 19 and 20, but I must point out that the penalty does not apply in the straight-course races at Flemington.

Horses can come down either side and win, so an outside draw is not necessarily a disadvantage.

THE COURSE

Ability to handle the course is a most important aspect of racing and my assessment is that course winners deserve a bonus, albeit a smallish one unless they have really proven themselves as specialists.

(1) If a horse is a winner at the track (one or two wins), it receives a bonus of 2kg.

(2) If a horse is a winner at the track (three or four wins), it receives a bonus of 1.5kg.

(3) If a horse is a winner at the track five or more times, it receives a bonus of 2kg.

WEIGHT

Finally, we have to consider the impact of weight. I can only stress what others have said before, that "weight can stop a train". Despite this, I feel we must take a measured look at the impact and do not rush in and madly penalise horses set to carry big weights. The following are my suggestions:

(1) Any horse carrying 6kg or more ABOVE the handicapped minimum is given a penalty of 1kg. Ignore apprentice claims.

(2) Any horse carrying 5kg or 5.5kg above the handicapped minimum is given a penalty of 1.5kg. Ignore apprentice claims.

These, then, are the factors I believe we can look at to enable us to examine a race and come up with the main chances.

I suggest you draw up a chart which can cover these factors. This will enable you to fill in the "squares" as you look at the form of each horse and then you'll be able to easily add up the points to determine the main selections.

Let's just do a quick review of what we've covered:

AN OVERALL REVIEW

Last month, I gave you the bonuses, etc. for the "days since" angle. You can use the bonuses, etc in conjunction with class and weight ratings.

I also gave you the details of bonuses and penalties for the form angles in our analysis. These let you allot the "kilos" or "points" for a runner's recent form.

Put all these factors together and you can see that we are giving ourselves a very neat overview of each runner.

Is its form okay, has it had recent form, how far into its campaign is it, can it handle the going, is it drawn poorly or drawn well, how does it figure on weight and can it handle the track where the race is to be run?

I cannot stress enough how important it is that we make an attempt to get all these things right. After all, as punters and form students what is it we are trying to do when we sit down and pore over the formguide?

We are trying to assess each runner's good and bad points, and to measure them against each other. Some horses will immediately stand out; others will be clearly indicated as having suspect claims to fame.

You'll be able to tell with some authority which are the top chances in a race. All it needs to achieve this analysis is to follow the steps I've outlined. It's power analysis without too much grief.

My own approach for the important Saturday meetings, at which I do most of my betting, is to settle down on Friday evening with my Sportsman formguide. I have all the charts specially laid out and then I set to work.

Because all the factors are readily available in the formguide, it doesn't take me long to work out every race I am looking at, which is usually three or four on a normal card.

In winding up this series, I want to leave you with one or two important thoughts.

REMEMBER THESE!

Firstly, always remember that horses have to be fit if they're to have any chance of winning a race. Consideration of factors like "days since last start" and "recent win consistency" are absolutely vital if you're going to give yourself a fighting chance of separating the fit runners from those that are not so fit.

Many punters place less importance on fitness than they should and this is a big mistake; but it also means that those punters who do take heed of it when making selections are given a better chance of securing good-priced winners.

The winning theory, believe me, is always that if you do something different from everyone else and what you do is RIGHT, then the prices of your selections will be much better than the ones that every man and his dog rushes to back.

Being different, marching to the beat of a different drummer, is often profitable and it's probably the only thing that's going to lift you head and shoulders above the crowd from a betting perspective.

This handful of factors I have outlined gives you the opportunity to make money, provided you are prepared to put in the hard yards and to do the workouts. I wish you good luck and, as always, I will be delighted to hear from any reader who takes up the cudgel and has a go.

 

Practical Punting - December 2001

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