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Three Rules Make The 'Formula'

Tim Eagan

 

Years ago, reading three books, Winning, The Winning Way and Winning More, all written by the late Don Scott, I devised a betting system which I called The Scott Formula, since it was Don Scott who inspired it.

Don Scott's story is widely known. He'd been a student of Theology and Law at Sydney University before abandoning his studies in favour of a career as a professional punter. For more than 20 years, Don was able to win consistently every year and had the tax records to prove it.

He started with a bank of $2,000 and won a fortune. He was the brains behind the legendary syndicate of punters which became known as the Legal Eagles. Using Scott's betting methods, this exclusive syndicate, which included other turf identities Clyde Packer, brother of the late Kerry Packer and Bob Charley, a former chairman of the AJC, took the Sydney betting scene by storm, ripping a fortune from the bookmakers' bags.

Scott's three books revolutionised punting in Australia, but in sharing his secrets with so many he ultimately destroyed the value edge he himself had enjoyed over bookmakers for so long.

In my opinion, Scott was a mathematical genius, something I have never been. Although I read his books, I never had the time , dedication or math skills to implement all the betting secrets he shared.

What did stick in my mind was something that Don wrote to the effect that, "Winners keep on winning, while losers keep on losing." It was this one statement that gave me the idea for The Scott Formula. I reasoned that if winners keep on winning, then they must be the most consistent racehorses.

I decided to concentrate on the consistency factor.

THE CONSISTENCY FACTOR

I didn't believe in backing a horse too early in its career. I wanted to be backing horses which had proven themselves to be consistent winners over a significant number of starts. Accordingly, I decided that in order to qualify as a selection a horse had to have had a minimum of 20 starts. This, then, became the first rule.

The next thing I needed to determine was what winning percentage would indicate true consistency. A winning percentage of 25 per cent is not bad, but I decided to raise the bar a little higher and make the minimum winning percentage 30 per cent. I now had rule two.

The third rule was that the system would be applied only to Saturday and public holiday meetings held at metropolitan tracks in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. The reason for this was that I wanted to be concentrating on the better class of racehorses and they race on Saturdays and public holidays and not at midweek meetings.

In summary then, The Scott Formula has just three rules:

THE SYSTEM

- Consider only metropolitan meetings conducted in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane on a Saturday or public holiday.
- Consider only horses which have had 20 starts or more.
- Of these, consider only those with a win percentage of 30 per cent or better.

Selections can be found in just a few minutes.

So much for rules, what about results?

During the trial period I never deviated from my rules. If a horse had 19 starts with a win percentage of 40 per cent, I left it alone. It did not meet my criteria. Similarly, if a horse had 20 starts or more and had a win percentage of 29 per cent, it too would be left alone. If you are going to make rules you have to be prepared to stick to them, even if it means missing out on the occasional winner.

At the end of the trial period, there had been 260 selections, which meant plenty of action with an average of just under 12 selections per week. Even the longshot selections, those starting at 10/1 or better, averaged four selections per week.

USUALLY ONE SELECTION REMAINED

In most cases there was just one selection per race, with one notable exception - the Epsom Handicap at Randwick. The field contained five horses which qualified as Scott Formula selections.

Three of these selections, Chanteclair 66/1, (1st), Ma Chiquita 9/1 (2nd) and Kui Kong 66/1 (3rd), brought up the trifecta which paid a staggering $34,112.

Did I back it? Of course not. I'm just another punting tragic. Anyway, I won't dwell on that, it is too depressing.

Back to the issue of results. When I analysed these, I found that :

- A $10 bet each way on every selection had shown a profit of 34.8 per cent.
- A $20 win bet on every selection had shown a profit of 34.6 per cent.
- A $10 each way bet on every selection starting at 10/1 or better, had shown a profit of 56 per cent.
Then came the real surprise.

- A $20 win bet on every selection starting at 10/1 or better, had shown a profit of 82.4 per cent.

While the return of 82.4 per cent from the longshot selections (those horses starting at 10/1 or better) suggests that this might be the way to go, there is a downside. In this case it's the inevitable long losing sequences. If you were to decide to back only the longshot selections, you would need to prepare yourself for losing sequences of up to 20.

On the other hand, if you were to back all The Scott Formula selections you would be receiving regular dividends and reducing the losing sequences. I realise that you would also be reducing your returns, based on the results above, but there are not too many investments where you can get a return of 30 per cent or more.

BUT WHAT ABOUT NOW???

Now some of you may be looking at the above results and thinking they were 20 years ago, and you'll be asking. "how is The Scott Formula performing these days?"

Well, the fact is that the winners just keep rolling in.

Back in April, for example, Babinda Half scored at Doomben and paid a very attractive dividend of $13.40 the win and $4.60 the place. In May, Approach The Bench won at Randwick and returned the fantastic dividend of $40.80 the win and $6.90 the place. In June, Devil Inside saluted at Eagle Farm paying $18.70 the win and $5.50 the place.

And it is not just the winners that are returning great dividends. When Ice Chariot recently recorded a first-up 3rd at Rosehill, he returned a place dividend of $10.20 His starting price was $91.00.

Such place dividends pose the question as to whether or not these longshots would be better backed each way rather than win only, but of course the win only versus each way debate is one that has been argued for years. Ultimately, it comes down to personal preference.

In devising the system I initially disregarded races in Adelaide and Perth. Just recently, however, I have started to take a look at Adelaide and early indications suggest that I may have been wrong to ignore it.

Whilst there is not much action there, what little there has been has proven profitable. St Trinians was a recent Scott Formula winner, which paid the juicy odds of $10.20 the win and $3.00 the place. Another was Capecover, which paid $8.10 the win and $2.70 the place.

On the other hand, nothing has happened in Perth to change my mind. On the few occasions I have checked out race meetings there I have not found a single horse that has qualified as a Scott Formula selection.

I have no doubt that The Scott Formula has the potential to be refined to a far greater degree than I have done. For example, I have never taken into consideration factors such as track conditions, barriers, jockeys, form patterns etc.

Perhaps one day someone with the time, dedication and database to research the system in depth will come up with a way of eliminating a good number of the losing bets and so make this system even more profitable.

Finally, whether you back your own selections or use a betting system such as The Scott Formula, it is advisable to have a staking plan or money management plan.

The best staking plans that I have seen have advocated that you bet to a set percentage of your bank. This enables you to hopefully cover those inevitable losing streaks.

If you want to cover a losing sequence of 50 bets you would need to bet two per cent of your bank each time you place a bet. If your betting bank is $200, then your starting bet would be $4.00.

I say starting bet, because the size of each bet will increase or decrease according to the size of your betting bank. The important thing is that you continue to bet on a level stakes basis.

The results I quoted earlier for The Scott Formula were based on level stakes betting.

Practical Punting - November 2008

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