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The 'Key' Factor Boom

We revive an approach that stands tall after 14 years

By Richard Hartley Jnr

Among the many letters I've received from readers over the last 18 years have been several from a dedicated punter named Fred Ingram, who lives in Melbourne.

Fred first got in touch with me back in 1989 after I had written an article called "Profit By Key Factor" (October). Being a "systemite" from way back, Fred was keen to discuss various aspects of the plan I had put forward, and since then has kept in contact.

Amazingly, he is still using the Key Factor Plan today! I have written to him to praise his dedication to the ideas in that system, and his reply has always been along the lines of "if it's winning, don't drop it".

Fred is the first to admit that he is not a big bettor. Like most punters in Australia, he bets in anything from a dollar to $20 and that's about it. For him, it's a fun thing, an interest that keeps him busy every day (he's now well into his 60s and retired).

A recent letter from Fred spurred me into having another look at the Key Factor. It reignited my own interest, so I thought it would be a good idea to go over it again, firstly for new readers who never saw the original article, and for those of you who may have read the article but have since forgotten it or lost your copy of the magazine.

Here's how it went:
Dabbling around recently and putting statistics through my computer, I discovered that a combination of certain factors relating to favourites often led to wonderful results.

It's a method I believe will help raise your winning average by backing the No. 1 choice in the betting. In fact, it comprises a rather simple qualifying test which you apply about five minutes from start time. The results of this test determine whether you back the favourite or not.

You decide whether you want to bet or give the race a miss. What you're doing is running a checklist over the favourite to see if it comes up to a required standard.

You are seeking to determine if the favourite is a "proven winner" as well as being a "likely" winner. Therefore, it must have class, form and condition to warrant you placing a bet.

I have eliminated Maiden races because there's no winning form and I am also avoiding 2YO races, at least for the first half of the season.

Ratings points are applied as each factor is considered. The rules are very clearcut and you should not have any problems coping with them.

In fact, you can operate on the pre-post betting market if you wish, instead of waiting for the final five minutes of betting. My recom­mendation, though, is the latter.

Now, let's examine the Key Factor Method. Study the rules closely so that when you start operating the approach you know exactly what you are doing.

THE KEY FACTOR METHOD

(1) Which horses to assess: The ruling favourite with five minutes to go OR the listed pre-post favourite in the morning news­paper market.
If you wish, you can extend the analysis to the first two or three favourites and go with the one that collects the highest rating points figure.

(2) Win-strike record: Give ONE point to any contender with a strike rate of 20 per cent or better. Give HALF A POINT to any contender that has notched a win, or wins, in its last six starts (including those without a 20 per cent or more win strike).

(3) Future potential: Allot ONE point to any contender that finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd at both its last two starts. Give HALF A POINT to any contender which ran 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th at only one of its latest two starts. Eliminate any contender which cannot fit either of these two factors.

(4) Recent races: Give ONE point to a horse which had its last race within the previous 10 days (inclusive). Give HALF A POINT to a horse which had its last race between 11 and 21 days ago (inclusive).

(5) Size of the field: This is an important part of the approach. If there are nine or fewer horses in the race, a horse with TWO ratings points or more becomes a bet. With a field of 10 or more runners, a horse needs to have at least 2.5 points to qualify as a bet.

Fred Ingram tells me that he has consistently applied the rules to the first three favourites in the betting, and reports great success. He bets only at city meetings, usually on Saturdays and any weekdays they are held.

Fred told me: "It's a good way to help you decide which of the better-fancied runners you should back. It's right more often that it's wrong, I can tell you! I don't know why other punters don't use it."

Well, Fred, a lot of punters don't have the time or inclination to work out things like this. Which is a pity. I have often felt that a systematic "deconstruction" of pre-race favourites would help all of us to throw out potentially false favourites.

I think this approach does just that. It steers you onto a favourite with positive factors.

Let's look at a couple of examples. Let's say a horse has a 25 per cent win-strike rate, and the form figures 1-2 at its latest two starts. Its last start was 11 days ago and it's now running in a field of 15.

It gains 1 point for its win-strike rate, half a point for having a win in its last six starts, it gets 1 point for having been in the first three at its last two starts and it gets half a point for the days since last start. It has, then, a total of 3 points.

Because it's running in a field of 15 it becomes a bet. Now, another example: A contender has a 15 per cent win-strike rate, its latest form 3-5-5-9-5-6, its previous start was 21 days ago and the field comprises nine runners.

This horse's strike rate is below the 20 per cent required, so no points there. No points, either, for not having a win in its last six starts. It gets no points for its last two placings of 5th and 6th and thus is eliminated from contention altogether.

I trust you can gather from all this that you are exercising a wide degree of choice over the horses you will support with your money. You are not blindly jumping aboard the so-called "favourites bandwagon"; instead, you are putting each of them through the form wringer in a bid to ensure that they are more than likely to give you a decent run for your money.

Looking back on the Key Factor, after a break of some 14 years, I am confident the rules stand up to scrutiny, even after all the changes that racing has undergone in those intervening years.

The basics of the game remain very much the same. Form is as important as ever, consistency remains vital, recency of latest start is a constant, and where a horse has finished at its recent starts is as all-important as it ever was.

These are the things you need to check up on. Remember that favourites only win three out of every 10 races, or 30 in 100, so 70 of them are going to let us down. This approach tries to cut back on the false favourites. If we can get that winning strike rate up to 40 per cent, we can start seriously thinking about making a profit.

This is what the game is all about. Profit. That means you are putting extra cash in the pocket. I think this revisited Key Factor Method will give you a chance to re-assess what you are doing, and will help you nail some solid favourite winners.

THE "AVERAGE WEIGHT" PLAN

At the same time I revealed details of the Key Factor Method in 1989, I was also toying around with an approach I called The Average Weight Horse Plan.

It's an easy-to-follow approach that helps you isolate good prospects. To find this "awh" runner, you merely add all the weights together of all the runners in a race and then divide the total by the number of runners.

You then bet the horse closest to that average weight figure . . . but below it. Let's say you have a field of 10 and the weights are as follows: 62.5, 59.5, 56, 56, 55.5, 55, 55, 53, 53, 53.

You add all the weights, which in this example comes to 558.5. You divide this by 10, which gives you 55.85.

You are now looking for the horse closest to this total but BELOW it, not above it. In this instance, that would be the horse on 55.5kg.

If you get races where there are two or more runners qualifying as a selection, my recommendation is that you back the best-fancied of them. If you prefer, you can back up to two runners in a race.

I said in my original article not to back a selection at 15/1 and above. If this happens, move down the card to the next weighted runner to see if it's at less than 10/1. If so, it can become the selection.

Alternatively, you can ignore the race.

By Richard Hartley Jnr

 

PRACTICAL PUNTING - January 2004

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