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The 20's Revival!

Tired of the same old approach to betting?

Damien Whitchurch

 

New ways to bet? New ways to pick out potential winners? New ways about handling an old subject like form? I guess that, like me, you've considered answering these questions from time to time, especially when the method you use is going through a bad patch.

My view is that every punter needs, at some stage, to sit back and reconsider his or her betting approach. Take the time to think about what you're doing, and consider doing things another way. A change can be a cure for ills.

So are there many new ways of looking at punting? I think there are certainly some twists that can be added to lots of the "old stuff". In this series I'll talk about 20 of them ... let's call it

The 20s Revival!

(1) Why not take a conscious decision to stop backing favourites? After all, they lose seven times out of 10, so why should you take them seriously? I feel that far too much consideration is afforded the race favourites. You are forced to accept short odds and you'll lose twice as many times as you win. So what's great about that?

Turn your attention, instead, to those well-credentialled runners who you feel are more than able to knock off the favourite. You'll get better value and if your assessments are sound you will put yourself into a solid winning position.

(2) To get your selection pattern into some sort of order, why not split your "assumptions" into varying degrees of form for each horse? "A" class horses are those that have won at least 6 races and have a win strike of 33 per cent or more; "B" class horses are those that have won at least 4 races and have a strike rate of 25 per cent or more; "C" class horses are those that have won it least 3 races from less than 10 starts.

The beauty of this is that you can work out your final selections . . .and then split them using the A, B, C class figures.

(3) Test out various spot-plans; we've published hundreds and hundreds of useful spot-plans, or mini-systems, since we began publication in 1985. Check out back copies, pick out the ones you like and give them all dry-run tests. You never know, you could strike a ripper.

(4) Why not try out betting on international racing? It's easy now to bet on New Zealand and Hong Kong racing. Even UK racing is within reach now.

There are lots of Internet-based bookmakers, and you can watch the races live if you're prepared to stay up to the early hours!

(5) Check out an approach based on beaten margins. You look at the last six runs for each horse. Of the six runs, eliminate the best and worst margins. A win is given a negative value; i.e. 3-length win is regarded as -3. Add the remaining beaten/winning margins, add them up, then divide by 4. This will give you an average for the horse. Back the horse with the LOWEST margin figure.

(6) We've said it before, and let me say it one more time. Learn how to compile your own price assessments on each runner. By doing this, you can measure one runner against the next, and you'll know when you are getting a fair price. Test out new ways of producing the prices, and see what works best for you.

(7) Make "recent form" the keynote factor of your entire form analysis method. Forget about first-uppers, and horses that haven't raced for three weeks or more. Concentrate on GOOD form horses. Rule out horses facing steep rises in class, and horses you anticipate will not be able to handle the current track or distance. Minimise your guesswork.

(8) Centre your attention on certain types of races. Specialise on them. Maybe you like Opens and Welters, or maybe you feel you do better on the weaker midweek races? Classes 1 through to 6, maybe, at the provincials?

A lot of punters believe that it's easier to pick a winner at Warrnambool on a weekday than it
is to pick a winner at Flemington on Saturday. So if you haven't had a lot of luck with your city race betting, why not try the switch?

(9) Eliminate PANIC from your betting. Too many punters go into a panic mode during a bad run. Make a promise to yourself to always keep a calm head on your shoulders. Don't be panicked into silly bets just to "get out" on the day. Your new resolution is that to be successful you need to tough things out when the going gets hard and rocky.

(10) Become a video expert! There's enough racing on Sky to satisfy any video junkie. Make sure you record all the races, then find the time to watch them, or as many as you need to watch. Check out all the runs but especially be on the lookout for horses with ACCELERATION in the
final stages. Horses that can come under pressure and then quicken are usually worth following. I like to check out all the winners to see if they possess this characteristic. You'll soon get the knack of spotting these acceleration horses.

(11) Have a go at SELECTIVE betting. Instead of beating your brains out betting on just about every race you can find, why not become much more selective? You don't need to bet on too many races.

All it means is that you need to make more profit to come out ahead. The man who bets on one race needs only an even-money winner to make 100 per cent profit. Remember that. The punter who bets two horses needs at least one of them as a 3/1 winner to make 100 per cent profit. Remember that. Back three horses and you have an outlay of 3, so you'll need a 5/1winner to make 100 per cent profit if only one of them wins.

(12) Get to know all there is to know about money management. Sounds boring, I know, but what it means is that you discover the BEST WAYS to invest your money. There are lots of ways to bet. Are you doing it the best way possible? Do you boost your bets when you are losing in order to get back into the black? And do you ease off after you win?

Many bettors, when they're out in front, get conservative and forget that everything runs in streaks and a streak of good fortune should be capitalised on. Many punters, on a losing streak, throw caution to the wind and try to force a winner, making larger bets in the hope of recouping previous losses with one killing. Level-stakes betting is usually always the safest route, but that shouldn't stop you experimenting with all angles of staking. But when you do, test yourself out with NO MONEY for a decent trial period.

(13) Try on-course betting! Now ask yourself this: How long is it since I've seen a racehorse "live" in the flesh at a racecourse? How many years have you spent betting on the TAB and watching the races on TV? Why not make a decision to start attending race meetings. Get back into the exciting atmosphere, think about betting with the bookies again, go chasing some real value on the track. It could revolutionise your betting, and inject some fun and daring into your weekend life.

TRY THIS WINDFALL BUSTER

If you really must back favourites, this plan, known as The Windfall Buster, could be the one for you. It tries to eliminate false favourites. And it does a pretty good job of it, too.

(1) Check out only the pre-race favourite.

(2) Operate only in races with between 10 and 16 runners.

(3) Contender must have had its last start in the last 6 to 23 days.

(4) Contender must have finished lst to 5th last start.

(5) Contender must have finished no more than 2 lengths from the winner at its second-last start, but must NOT have been the winner.

(6) Contender must be carrying 53.5kg or more.

 

THE DOWST THEORY PLAN

Robert Saunders Dowst ... the name still rings bells for many serious punters in Australia, and around the world. Professional punters learn many of their tricks from this man. You could do much worse than to read all you can about the Dowst theories concerning form analysis and staking.

His simple rating theory is evidence enough of his skill, for it manages to encompass much with very little expenditure of brain power. Dowst rated horses like this.

Rating of 1 (the highest) for a horse that has won 70 per cent or more of its races.

Rating of 2 for a consistency of wins between 40 and 70 per cent.

Rating of 3 requires a win percentage from 20 to 40 per cent.

Rating of 4 is for horses below 20 per cent win consistency.

A good idea is to assign these ratings to each horse in a race BEFORE you do the form analysis. They'll give you a good idea of the consistency qualities of each runner.

 

Practical Punting - August 2002

 

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