Free newsletter sign up

Get our latest horse racing news, reviews, exclusives and more direct to your email inbox.
Sign up here

PP Blog

Read our Horse Racing Blog, keeping you up to date with all the latest horse race betting info & horse racing systems.

PP TV

Watch the TVN coverage of today's horse racing and view video replays through BigPond.

PP Radio

Listen to the day's racing through Sky Racing Radio. Plus racing news, previews and horse racing tips.

The Hunt For "HOT" Horse

Class, form and intuition

By Richard Hartley Jnr.

 

In this article, long- time contributor Richard Hartley Jr argues the case for a "class and form" plan to provide a high percentage of success with likely hot favourites. The plan has stood the test of time and is as fresh as when he wrote it five years back.

A friend of mine remarked the other day, "If you want a hot horse, then go for the horse in form." We were at a BBQ and several of us were discussing ways to win, and relating tales of wins and near-misses (as you do ... ).

GO FOR THE HORSE IN FORM

I find that whenever punters get together, the subject inevitably arises of "big bets" and what constitutes a horse that will encourage a bet of sizeable proportions.

There is usually a general agreement that if a lot of money is going to be plastered around then the horse in question surely has to pass some very stern tests. There seems to be no room for too much "risk factor" when it comes to big bets.

My pal Joe is a punter who isn't afraid to bet big but he doesn't do it often. He likes to latch on to "champion horses" and follow them right through to the end. Sometimes a bitter end, other times a happy end.

Lonhro and Northerly have been recent big bet horses.

"When I put a lot of money on I don't want to risk it on an inferior horse," he says. "The horse has to have real qualities, really good form. I suppose I more or less stick to the horses we call champions or superstars."

The average bettor, as we know, doesn't really like to hang around waiting for champions that might be worth a gamble three or four times a year. He wants action at least on a weekly basis. If we take a quick look at recent race meetings, I'll point out the horses that would have qualified for big bets.

CHAMPIONS AND BIG BETS

As I write this, the most recent weekend of racing was at Warwick Farm, and one horse stood out like a beacon light. Why? He was beautifully suited at weight-for-age at Group I level, his opposition was only moderate (for that type of race, anyway) and his latest formlines were strong - a win in the 2000m Queen Elizabeth Stks at the last run of his previous campaign, and then a first-up second in a Group 2 over 1300m, carrying 60kg and conceding the winner, a very smart galloper, 8kg. Grand Armee was beaten only 1.5 lengths.

Only bad luck could have defeated him, and that never became an issue. He won, albeit at odds-on, in rather comfortable fashion, despite a strong challenge by the former Kiwi King's Chapel.

Had you placed a big bet on Grand Armee, the investment was never really in danger.

Of course, this is all hindsight. Would you have been prepared to lay down $ 1,000 to win at 10 / 9 ON? On the one hand, it looked like an easy pickup of $900, but on the other hand, what could go wrong? Were you over-estimating the horse's chance in the race? What if bad luck intervened?

These are the sorts of doubting questions that invariably run through one's mind when contemplating such a bet. If you can remain positive, you'll put the money on, and pat yourself on the back after the race for being clever and courageous.

AND YET IT'S STILL A RISKY BUSINESS!

Grand Armee was definitely a hot horse. There were no real negatives looming over him. When you looked at his form the positive messages rang loud and clear. The doubt, if you can call it that, hovered over the price. Was he worth taking 9/10?

If you answered "yes" to that final question, then the big bet was a goer and after a couple of minutes you were $900 richer.

Was there another big bet horse at that Warwick Farm meeting? Yes, I think there was and the name? Besame Mucho. Once again, here was a galloper with virtually impeccable credentials.

Winner of five of her nine starts, and a breathtaking first-up winner over 1200m in a Group 3 on September 11, she was in against Mares over the same distance, at which she had raced four times for four wins. Add to this the fact that she'd won her only start at Warwick Farm and you can see how the picture develops.

Let's see what other positives there were for Besame Mucho: (1) drawn well, (2) top jockey Darren Beadman aboard, (3) top trainer Bart Cummings, (4) fit and well, and although second-up has won before in such a situation, (5) suited by the track conditions.

Negatives? Not many of any great consequence. Perhaps you might question the weight she had, 58.5kg, a rise of 4kg on the weight she'd carried last start, but that was a Group 3 race and now she's in a Listed Quality.

You might also ruminate on her ability to get away from the barriers swiftly. In the Doomben 10,000 in May she got away slowly, settled down 12th and wound up seventh, a great run in reality but one that might have been all that much getter with a clean getaway.

The odds problem wasn't too bad a one for those who might have been looking at a $1,000 wager on Besame Mucho. She ended up at 5/4 but maybe there was a little bit more available with the bookies.

Was she worth it? If you'd won that $900 on Grand Armee perhaps it was tempting to play up the profit on Besame Mucho at 5/4? Let's say you put $800 on to win $1,000. The money was more or less in the bag after the first 200m.
Beadman allowed the mare to rail up after a tardy start (!) and when the straight was reached she bounded clear. In pops another $1,000 into your pocket.

The day's big bets, then, on two standout hot horses? Investment $1,800, return $1,900 on Grand Armee and $1,800 on Besame Mucho, for a profit of $1,900. I call that a good day's work.

Well, you might say, we're all millionaires betting with hindsight, and that's very true. But think carefully at the lessons to be learned from these two bets.

What stands out with both of them?

SO WHERE'S THE CLUE?

FORM for a start. It was very good form in top-class races. Once you have that form to stack up you can give yourself some real comfort as a punter.

Form means a great deal. A horse with form means a FIT horse. A horse in form and beating CLASS gallopers is a good racehorse. And when these three factors (FORM, FITNESS, CLASS) are rolled into one, and when other factors are positive, suddenly you see a HOT HORSE in front of you.

What restrictions should you place on yourself when hunting down these hot horses? 1 think field size is most important. If the field is too big then forget about the big bets.

Ten or eleven runners should be the maximum when you are looking at throwing on major bucks. In fields with more runners than that all sorts of problems can arise. Even in small fields, there can be problems.

THE SUPER-HOT SYSTEM

(1) Operate only on Open Handicaps (must be top-class), Group 1-2-3 and
Listed Races at wfa or set weights.
(2) Operate only when the field has 11 or fewer runners.
(3) Contender must be the pre-post favourite.
(4) Contender must have very good recent form.
(5) Contender must be proven in the Class of the race.
(6) Contender must be drawn well.
(7) Contender must be 100% certain to handle the track and distance.
(8) Contender must have a TOP CLASS jockey and come from a TOP-CLASS stable.
(9) Contender must be able to handle the prevailing track conditions.

 

Practical Punting - November 2004

Free Gifts – Sign Up

Welcome to Practical Punting. Everything you're looking for to become a great punter and increase your profits is right here.

Get FREE, INSTANT ACCESS to our:

• FREE Picking Midweek Winners:
  The essentials of midweek analysis and how to land those midweek winners and increase your profits.
• FREE Punting Calculator:
  A brilliant tool that enables you to bet on multiple selections so that whichever one wins, you win, too.
• FREE Staking e-Book:
  Staking - the crucial element to punting success. Great strategies to profitable betting.
• FREE Subscription to our "Enjoy Winning" newsletter:
  Packed with all the information you'll need to win.
• FREE Special Report:
  "50 Ways to Hit Top Gear." Winning ideas and profit making secrets.
  Just enter your information in the boxes below and you'll receive all the details instantly.

Sign up for your FREE GIFTS NOW!

• YES, please give me access to your FREE Punting Calculator, FREE Staking e-Book, FREE Special Report and email me your FREE "Enjoy Winning" Newsletter packed with useful punting tips and secrets.

Name :

E-Mail :

  

Please provide a valid e-mail address.

This feature requires registration with Practical Punting. Simply type in your email address and name and you can download your free gifts immediately. You'll also receive periodic special offers from us that we think may interest you and help you win.

Privacy Information

We will use your email address only to keep you informed about updates to our monthly magazine, websites and about other products and services that we think might interest you. We respect your privacy and your details will not be supplied to any other party.

If at any time you want to stop receiving them, you can easily unsubscribe. Every email we send provides an address that you can contact to withdraw your consent (unsubscribe).