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Using The Weight Lines

Jon Hudson

 

The first system is an application of a plan The Optimist introduced some years ago. To add some "oomph" to his rules I have added a weight factor and I believe this makes the system well worthwhile.

WEIGHTING PLAN

- Restrict betting to horses in barriers 1 to 5 inclusive in Handicap races.
- Contender must be on the top weight or second top weight line.
- Contender must NOT be favourite in pre-post market.
- Contender must have run in the first three at latest two outings.
- Contender must have had at least two runs back from a spell.

This is a system that will not provide you with a lot of selections but those that crop up will be solid, formful conveyances.

Remember that you operate the system only in handicap races (not Set Weights or WFA races).

Weight is used again in my next mini-system. With this one, The Echo Plan, the aim is to back last start winners who meet several key rules.

THE BOTTOM WEIGHTS PLAN

- Operate on handicap races only.
- The only runners to be considered are those carrying the lowest handicapped weights (do not take apprentice allowances into account).
- Eliminate any contender at 20/1 or longer in the pre-race market.
- Contender must be a winner at the track.
- Contender must be a winner at the distance of the current race.
- Contender must have won or run 2nd at its latest start.
- If more than one contender, back both or up to three in one race.
- If ONE final contender has an apprentice aboard, claiming, double the usual bet.

THE ECHO PLAN

- Operate on handicap races, city or provincial/country tracks.
- The only runners to be considered are horses who WON last start and who are now 4/1 or under in the pre-race market.
- Contender must be DROPPING in weight in the current race. If not, pass the race.
- Distance of today's race must be the same or no more than 200m difference, either way, from last start.

So, this system aims to find repeat winners. We want the horse to be carrying less weight (which will mean it's gone up in class, or has an apprentice claiming) than last start, we want it to be well-fancied in the betting (4/1 or under) and we want it to be racing at a distance the same as, or close to (up to 200m) the distance it won over last start.

The third system looks at price and weight. It's all about UP in weight and DOWN in price. That is, up in weight to be carried on last start, and down (shorter) in price. I call it The Up and Down Plan.

UP AND DOWN PLAN

- The only runners to be considered are those that were UNPLACED (4th or worse) last start.
- Contender must be carrying more weight in today's race than it did last start.
- Contender must be at a shorter quote in the pre-race market than it started at last start. (For example, started 10/1 last start, is now 5/1, or perhaps started 4/1 last start and is now 2/1 etc.)

There's a simple philosophy about this idea - that a horse who failed last start and is now up in weight and is at a shorter market price than last start, must have something going for it.

Usually, it will be a drop in class, and if this is coupled with perhaps an unlucky run last start, you have the makings of a decent proposition.


Practical Punting - January 2008


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