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VDW - The Way It Works

Under scrutiny for 25 years, it won't go away . . .

By Russell Hart

 

PPM has run several articles on the controversial opinions of the late Cher Van Der Wheil (VDW) and in this article UK contributor Russell Hart takes an insightful and critical look at what the VDW claims really mean. This article first appeared in Smartsig magazine in Britain. VDW is skewed to UK and Irish racing but his ideas have fascinating implications world-wide.

Like it or hate it, the VDW approach is different and thought-provoking. Russell Hart suggests some modifications at the end of this article: these too may or may not appeal to all readers, but again they contain very insightful ideas.

The UK Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book was medium for a number of letters back in the late 1970s from Cher Van Der Wheil, in which he stated he would be prepared to offer proven winning ideas.

VDW wrote, in February 1978, of a staking plan. His idea was based on the concept of increasing the stake after a loser.

The well-informed current consensus, however, cannot support this proposal.

He then wrote a letter in which he suggested that the combination of two factors would narrow any field to three horses. He suggested that:

- Consistent horses win a high percentage of races;
- The first five in the betting forecast (the prepost market) in non-handicaps produce a high percentage of winners.

He gave the example of a Champion Hurdle race in Ireland where his analysis and race reading gave the 6/1 winner.

He continued with another letter in which he gave his analysis of the impact of the last three results on percentage win next time, with 111 winning 33 per cent of the time.

Recent analysis differs from this, showing the figure to be more like 23 per cent.

At this time, VDW claimed to have 29 winners from 32 runners on the Flat in Britain. In early 1979, he explained his approach for calculating consistency for National Hunt (jumps) racing; he only considered a horse's finishing positions, ignoring Fell, Pulled Up and all the other reasons for not completing a race.

In May 1979, he produced the concept of:

CONSTANT FORM+ABILITY+CAPABILITY+PROBABILITY+HARD WORK = WINNERS.

He offered no worked examples.

Later he had another attempt at introducing a staking plan based on the concept of increasing stakes after a loser.

He wrote a letter wherein he advocated the following way of working:

- From the last two placings of a horse, mark with an * all those with a one to four in either race;

- Select in days the horses with the five most recent results;

- Select from the above the three most consistent horses, using the sum of the last three outings.

He gave the example of a selling handicap at Newmarket, a race he had reduced to three contenders. With some "race reading" he pointed out the winner.

He later repeated his views on consistency with no new worked examples.

He suggested selecting, from the first five in the betting, the three runners which had been off the course the shortest period, with bets on all three qualifiers.

He followed this with a letter in which he defined ability as the value of the race won divided by (number of races won x 100).

This was an extension to his concept, now rewritten as:

CONSISTENT FORM +ABILITY+ CAPABILITY+ PROBABILTY+HARD WORK = WINNERS.

Thus, "consistent form" had replaced the previous "constant form".

In 1981, VDW put forward yet another method. He suggested the following:

- From the principal meeting, select the most valuable race;

- Consider the second most valuable race;

- Select most valuable race from the other cards;

- Rate entire field for ability;

- Select most consistent from the first five or six in the field;

- Apply selected rating method to entire field.

He then gave examples of five races. The "days since last run" had disappeared from this approach.

VDW then sent another letter concentrating on Consistent Form and Ability.

There followed an exchange of letters which ended with him challenging someone to start talking with his chequebook.

My conclusions: VDW created an approach that had some mathematical elements and some judgement.

"Days since last run" was important at one stage and then later was apparently no longer part of the equation.

Using a formguide of your choice, you too can do a VDW!

- Calculating Ability by looking up the value of races won, dividing by the number of races won and dividing by 100;

- Calculating Consistent Form by adding up the last three form figures;

- Selecting the first five or six from the betting forecast (the prepost newspaper market in Australia);

- Noting the ratings (maybe use Zipform in Sportsman).

Add a dash of your own "race reading" and you might be picking 29 winners from 32 runners!

VDW paid no formal heed to Going, Weight Allotted and Distance, all of which seem to be important.

Does this mean his analysis was incomplete? Or did he know something we don't?

I offer the following specification to produce a system for rating a race VDW style:

For a race, indicate if it is a handicap or non-handicap and enter the details of each horse as follows:

- Enter form from last six finishes; Enter total value of races won;

- Enter number of races won;

- Enter speed ratings;

- Enter form ratings;

- Enter forecast starting price;

- Continue until all runners are included.

Then we go to the next level:

- Calculate Consistent Form by adding the places for the last three starts with 0 having the value of 10, e.g. 123 would equal 1+2+3 equals 6. 120 would equal 1+2+10 equals 13.

- Calculate Ability by dividing total value of- races won by the number of races won;

- Award 10 points to the horse with the lowest Consistent Form figure, nine to the next, eight to the third best;

- Award 10 points to the horse with the highest Ability, nine to the next and so on until the 5th highest Ability;

- Award 10 points to the horse with the highest Form ratings, nine to the next and so on until the 5th highest;

- Award 10 points to each horse in the top six in the betting forecast for handicap races and the top five in non-handicaps;

- Award 10 points to the horse with the highest Speed ratings; award nine to the next and so until the 5th highest.

PRACTICAL PUNTING - March 2006

 

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