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Winning with the Dosage
How to understand the secrets of bloodlines

By Julian Mould

When it comes to the issue of punting practically many punters tend to put the subject of how a horse is bred, in relation to his or her punting, to one side.

Most punters, naturally enough, stick to the formbook and with good reason. There can be no doubt that knowing the form of any horse before it races is imperative before any hard-earned cash is frittered away on it.

However, if a punter takes the time to build a little knowledge about an animal’s pedigree, before he or she decides to bet on it, then they may be spared a considerable amount of headache and wallet-ache before parting with their hard-earned cash.

Finding a starting point and getting to grips with the subject of a thoroughbred’s pedigree does, nevertheless, present its problems so it’s not surprising that many people like to sweep it under the carpet or stick the whole matter in the “too hard” basket.

But once you have acquired a bit of information on pedigrees you will never want to bet without it again. Pedigree knowledge might just be the last piece of weaponry that you need within your punting armoury and one of the neatest ways to understand whether a horse’s pedigree is right for punting with is to use a system known as Dosage.

THE DOSAGE SYSTEM
Dosage is quite a well-known tool for discerning the impact of a racehorse’s pedigree and has been around in its current form since the early 1970s.

Initially created in the 1920s by a Frenchman called Vuillier, dosage was invented to discover which sires were the most prevalent within thoroughbred pedigrees. The idea was sound but suffered from certain flaws and so its popularity waned but it was revitalised in the 1970s by an American called Dr Steve Roman.
His aim was to “track the decline of the thoroughbred” but astute members of the American punting community seized upon it very quickly as a useful way of categorising a thoroughbred and their potential to win certain races.

Dr Roman took Vuillier’s dosage ideas and changed the dosage rules, coming up with a much more accurate points system. His first move was to concentrate solely on the first four generations in a pedigree and the chef-de-race stallions were assigned points values dependent upon what generation they occurred in.

Next he devised a points system. The first generation chefs-de-race were given 16 points; second generation chefs-de-race were given eight points; third generation chefs-de-race were given four points and fourth generation were given two points. If a stallion fell into two categories (a frequent occurrence) then it was decided that the points should be evenly split.

To find out exactly which sires have been nominated as a chef-de-race then you need look no further than the website www.chef-de-race.com. It will tell you how to calculate dosage too.

The quick way to get your hands on the dosage of most Aussie horses is to go to an alternative website called www.pedigreequery.com, where you can type in the name of the horse you’re after and it will invariably give you its details. No membership or login details are required – it’s all free. Just hit the site and type the name in. It contains the vast majority of Australian Group and Listed performers and, importantly, the website is kept well up-to-date.

When you’re assessing the dosage of a horse then the information should be presented to you with three keyselements; Dosage Profile, Dosage Index and Centre of Distribution.

The Dosage Profile contains points spread across five categories. The Dosage Index is a number that is derived from a simple calculation obtained from the profile and acts as a stamina index. The Centre of Distribution is a number derived from a slightly more complex calculation. This single number indicates all the combined influences of the chefs-de-race within the pedigree.

DOSAGE PROFILE, DOSAGE INDEX AND CENTRE OF DISTRIBUTION

Try not to be put off by these terms. They seem a bit weighty simply because scientists created them – and geeks love big words.

Let’s define these three terms and then look at the dosages of some well-known racehorses so that they help you to get the feel of things more easily. Let us define the three dosage terms to a level that we can all understand and keep the attention limited to the dosages of older Group 1 winners.

An older Group 1 winner’s dosage offers the best insight into the pedigree of a horse and can be classified as a mature three-year-old and ages upwards from there.

Dosage Profile (DP) – These are five separate numbers where each number represents a category.
The categories are (from left to right) Brilliant-Intermediate-Classic-Solid-Professional.

• “Brilliant” and “Intermediate” are about speed.
• “Classic” is about classic potential at the “classic distances” (1600m-2400m) – a quality that requires both speed and stamina. Virtually all modern thoroughbreds have a numerical entry in this category.
• ”Solid” and “Professional” are all about stamina.

Dosage Index (DI) – The Dosage Index (DI) is a number obtained from the profile to reflect the ratio of speed-to-stamina in a pedigree. This is calculated by adding points from the two “speed” categories (Brilliant and Intermediate) plus half of those from the Classic category.

Next, the two stamina categories (Solid and Professional) and the other half of the Classic points are added together. The “speed” total is then divided by the “stamina” total to give a Dosage Index (DI). The higher the DI, the more speed is supposedly present in the pedigree. There is no limit to the size of this number.

Centre of Distribution (CD) – Centre of Distribution (CD) is a more complicated calculation derived from the profile. The calculation doesn’t necessarily need to be known but the CD figure should convey the general picture of the combined influences of the chefs-de-race.

The CD will always be a number between +2 and -2. The number essentially signifies the balancing point of the mass of numbers in the dosage profile. It should pinpoint where the animal stands as a likely sprinter, classic contender or stayer.

The +2 end corresponds to the sprinter end of the scale while -2 is the stayers’ end of the scale. CDs around 1.00 usually indicate a heavy speed influence while CDs around 0.00 down to -1.00 are considered to be a heavy influence of stamina.

Here is an example of the dosage information for Tie The Knot.

TIE THE KNOT DP = 8-1-13-2-2 (26) DI = 1.48 CD = 0.42
The dosage profile has points displayed in all the categories. The total number of points is displayed in brackets just after the profile. His dosage index is 1.48 and his centre of distribution is 0.42. His DI and CD are typical of a strong middle distance horse.

INTERPRETATION OF THE DOSAGE PROFILE

The dosage profile, DI and CD of a horse should have enough information in them to begin to describe the pedigree of the horse you might be dealing with.

The points displayed should give a sufficient interpretation of the animal’s likely tendencies. However, there are three other things you might see in a horse’s dosage information that should be considered too:

1. The total number of points in a dosage profile.
2. Dominant classicity.
3. Points representation within all the categories.

If any one of these items is seen then you may be confronting a superior animal. If these items are seen in combination then you may be looking at a very superior animal. If an animal possesses all of them then it is not only likely to excel on the track but it is also likely that the horse will go on to be a success at stud.

TOTAL NUMBER OF POINTS IN DOSAGE PROFILE

Another good indication that a horse you are dealing with is potently bred is by the total number of dosage points in the profile.

Over 90 per cent of the winners of Group races have point totals in excess of 10 but when a dosage profile drops below seven points in total then a horse may struggle in the very competitive Sydney/Melbourne races as most of these horses have a much greater leaning these days towards northern hemisphere bloodlines.

Thanks to Danehill and his sire sons, plus the advent of large numbers of shuttle sires coming into Australia, these bloodlines are taking over in Australia’s major Group races.

However, in the metropolitan cities outside of Melbourne and Sydney (and on Australian country tracks) the number of horses bred with northern hemisphere sires in their pedigree drops so the dosage profile stops being very helpful.

A good example of this is a pattern-class Perth horse Local Legend. He is by Rory’s Jester out of an Old Spice mare (so he has a very potent pedigree) but the dosage is offering no real information on this. His dosage profile looks like this:

LOCAL LEGEND DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.50

This isn’t telling us very much but we know that Rory’s Jester’s progeny make terrific sprinters. If you’re assessing a non-Melbourne/Sydney horse then a judgement will have to be made as to whether the horse you’re looking at has a sufficient Northern Hemisphere bias to allow scrutiny with a dosage profile.

DOMINANT CLASSICITY

Another “geek” term I’m afraid. Dominant classicity is a phenomenon within the dosage profile where the points for the Classic category of the dosage profile (the number in the middle) exceed all the other points in the profile put together.

Horses with this dosage feature are found in only 18 per cent of the total thoroughbred population but the percentage of winners of pattern races who have dominant classicity is around 35 per cent. Its effect on performance can be dramatic.

Dominant classicity is associated with tenacity and a will-to-win and can allow for greater flexibility with a horse’s best winning distance. This is a tremendous asset within a dosage profile and usually it means that you’ve found a good’un. Horses with this asset can cope with all kinds of ground and distances even in the absence of stamina contributions from the Solid and Professional categories. Here are some examples of dominant classicity at work:

• MAKYBE DIVA DP = 7-8-23-0-0 (38) DI = 2.30 CD = 0.58
• EREMEIN DP = 4-1-9-0-0 (14) DI = 2.11 CD = 0.64
• CHOISIR DP = 3-5-10-0-0 (18) DI = 2.60 CD = 0.61

Notice how dominant classicity is a phenomenon that is unrelated to the DI or the CD. Dominant classicity can occur in any profile whether the horse is a sprinter or a stayer.

REPRESENTATION WITHIN ALL CATEGORIES

When a dosage profile has points in all the categories then the horse is likely to have a large amount of talent. It will be receiving all kinds of high-class attributes from very potent stallions. The pedigree mix will be a dynamic blend of speed and stamina that will allow it to be a threat at all sorts of distances in all types of ground.

We saw earlier in the article that Tie The Knot has this trait, a remarkable horse that won at Group 1 level at 1600m and 3200m. Here he is again with some other good examples – Redoute’s Choice and Starcraft.

• TIE THE KNOT DP = 8-1-13-2-2 (26) DI = 1.48 CD = 0.42
• REDOUTE’S CHOICE DP = 3-5-17-2-1(28) DI = 1.43 CD = 0.25
• STARCRAFT DP = 2-1-15-2-2 (22) DI = 0.91 CD = -0.05

PUTTING DOSAGE TO USE IN A RACE FIELD

Listed below are some top-class performers from recent years. It is simply there to illustrate dosages for sprinters and stayers. It is listed in descending Dosage Index order.

At the top we have the sprinters and at the bottom we have the stayers. These horses can serve as dosage benchmarks. Horses like Schillaci and Spinning Hill were very skilled over the 1000m – 1200m range.
Horses like Lonhro and Yell help to bridge the gap from sprinter to middle distance horse. As the DI and CD decrease so does a horse’s most effective distance get further.

Incidentally, THIS LIST IS A GUIDELINE ONLY and is not meant to illustrate the best horses at a given distance. As you investigate guideline dosages further you will find that not all horses fit your ideas as you might imagine. Nevertheless, the dosage can offer important clues but the question that must be borne in mind is “What kind of race is this horse trying to win?” and “Is stamina required within the context of this race?”.

Here’s the list:

• SPINNING HILL 5-3-4-0-0(12) DI = 5.00 CD = 1.08
• SCHILLACI 3-7-6-0-0(16) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.81
• TAKEOVER TARGET 5-0-3-0-0(8) DI = 4.33 CD = 1.25
• GLAMOUR PUSS 5-1-4-0-0(10) DI = 4.00 CD = 1.10
• BELLE DU JOUR 2-4-4-0-0(10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.80
• DEFIER 2-5-5-0-0(12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.75
• LONHRO 5-2-7-0-0(14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.86
• YELL 3-6-10-0-1(20) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.50
• EREMEIN 4-1-9-0-0(14) DI = 2.11 CD = 0.64
• SHOGUN LODGE 5-8-6-4-1(24) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50
• DESERT WAR 2-3-11-0-0(16) DI = 1.91 CD = 0.44
• ELVSTROEM 2-5-14-0-1(22) DI = 1.75 CD = 0.32
• SUNLINE 2-3-7-2-0(14) DI = 1.55 CD = 0.36
• NORTHERLY 7-2-11-4-0(24) DI = 1.53 CD = 0.50
• COUNTY TYRONE 1-4-14-0-1(20) DI = 1.50 CD = 0.20
• OCTAGONAL 1-3-8-2-0(14) DI = 1.33 CD = 0.21
• MIGHT AND POWER 3-3-8-4-0(18) DI = 1.25 CD = 0.28
• MAHTOUM 2-4-6-6-0(18) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.11
• HENDERSON BAY 4-2-0-6-2(14) DI = 0.75 CD = 0.00

WHAT MAKES A STAMINA CONTEST?
Three factors, above all others, are going to call upon the stamina reserves of a racehorse. They are:

1. Confronting wetter ground.
2. Racing in a big field of runners, i.e 12 runners or more.
3. Confronting more distance.

These factors are the most likely to accent the call for stamina in a horse’s pedigree. If the ground is wet then a race gets tougher. If the number of runners in a horse race increase then a race dynamic changes radically.

In a race size of less than 12 runners a race can be raced in quite a different way. In a small field horses mostly dawdle until the 600m and then suddenly sprint for home.

If the field size is over 12 runners then the stamina quotient is increased significantly because the pace will be made fast and constant as on-pace horses vie for the lead.

Extra stamina will also be required for a horse that steps up in distance. An example of this might be when, say, a horse wins an 1100m race in a small field on good ground. Stepping up to a 1300m race on slow ground in a big field would be quite a different stamina challenge altogether.

This year there have been plenty of examples where dosage has proved a useful ally in both positive and negative roles. A positive example was Eremein (see list). His form sells itself it’s true but the added knowledge that he had a dosage that fitted in well with middle distances (and displayed dominant classicity) meant he could be betted with, over middle distances, with confidence.

His autumn campaigns of 2005 and 2006 should have been highly profitable for dosage students who followed him. A favoured negative example from this year’s Sydney carnival was Primus. His dosage is set out below:

PRIMUS 6-4-10-0-0(20) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.80

His dosage did not seem to have the stamina required within it to see out either a Rosehill Guineas or an AJC Derby.

The next major step once you’ve finished reading this article is to take some time matching up a horse’s form with its dosage. Start with the Group 1 horses first. Over time definite patterns will begin to emerge in your mind. Try to take the information given here and apply it to various horses you know.

There are a plenty of times in the recent past when a quick look at a horse’s dosage would have suggested whether you were dealing with a speedily-bred horse or more a staying type.

Or perhaps a horse might have a really eye-catching dosage with dominant classicity (and points in all categories) giving it a very classy look. Equally, you might look up a favourite’s dosage and find that it doesn’t seem to measure up at all.

Once a favourite looks suspect then you may well be on the way to finding a decent-priced winner.

By Julian Mould
Practical Punting

 

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