Welcome to "On the Punt" with the Optimist

BIG QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED.

Many questions could start to be answered this weekend, re the big future racing.

The demise of Our Aqaleem has opened the Australian Cup right up. Specialist Sirmione is targeting this race, but then others are using it as a springboard for the future Sydney riches. Bart or the rest? An interesting call. We should learn much.

Beneteau, one of the Big Four for the Golden Slipper (and the only male!) has to impress the punters and the bookies in the Skyline Stakes at Randwick. How good is he? He'll be at virtually unbackable odds, but how will a win affect his Golden Slipper price?

Denman is expected to blow his lot away in the Guineas. Then what?

And so on.

Over the next few weeks, there will be several of these important revelations. You can have an opinion now, but that's all it will be when you look back in a fortnight.

We'll be roosters or feather dusters.

So, the usual caveat: Bet, but treat it as part of a long-range program to come out on top.

And here's an old cliche but a good one: Rome wasn't built in a day.

This weekend the testing continues and the race being watched is The Australian Cup. The horses are Sirmione and Miss Maren.

MORE BIG TIMES A-COMIN'

After the Blue Diamond and the sad demise of Newmarket Day, we'll get the Guineas and the Australian Cup on Saturday then all our attention will switch north.

Randwick has some very exciting races this coming weekend, then Rosehill turns on the fully monty.

After this, Randwick offers the Derby, the Doncaster and the Sydney Cup on consecutive weekends, so it takes us right through to May.

Needless to say, there are many races on all seven racedays to whet the appetites of all punters. From the world's biggest kidstuff through to some of the best mile racing you'll ever see, and the classics led by the BMW and the Sydney Cup. The latter has been much tarnished over recent times but it's still got a ring about it.

The Todman and the Reisling (she was a great filly and it means "angel", for the benefit of those who insist on pronouncing it like the wine), then the Slipper itself.

The Sires' and the T.J.Smith.

The Coolmore. The Queen of the Turf.

The Ranvet and the BMW.

The Galaxy.

The George Ryder and the Doncaster. Toss in the All-Aged Stakes.

The Guineas then the Derby and the Oaks.

And that's merely a start! And after about sixty or so of these crack races, we head to Brisbane for a month or so.

Is it any wonder I still get excited about the autumn?

GROUPS GALORE

Saturday at Flemington is probably their second biggest day of the year, group-wise.

It's all go, from start to finish, with three of the nine races at the very top level:

a Group One weight for age race,

a Group One Handicap,

and a Group One Fixed Weights three year old classic.

And six others, Groups Two, Three and "Four" (listed).

Not unlike Derby Day is it?

Everyone is trying VERY hard, if you get my drift. Horses have been targeted at these races for months.

Punters have invested over the past three months, trying to out-think the bookmakers on the class and the conditions.

There'll be easier races to win on.

All year.

But the prices about your fancies in the big events are often the honey dripping from the vine. They can be hard to ignore and even harder to resist.

My advice? If you like something, have a go. Of course be sensible about it, but remember that the prices could be wonderfully rewarding.

It's one day for you in a year of racing. Theoretically that means 1/364th of your bank goes on it (they don't race on Christmas Day).

And you and I know that this isn't how it works anyway.

So how about an additional 1% of your annual bank for those "must have" bets?

Comfortable, secure, without any angst later on.

Give it a run, and whatever happens you'll still feel OK after the day - win or lose!

nb. The testing continues and this weekend it will be watching the VRC Sires' Produce Stakes, with In Faith and Willow Creek.

DON'T BELIEVE IN CLIMATE CHANGE? WELL WHAT ABOUT TRACK BIAS?

How You Feel About Track Bias?

It seems to me that there are some things you can have opinions about, and that there are other things which are cut and dried.
Let's have a look at Rosehill on Saturday.
If you weren't running 1-2-3 on the turn, or at least just after the horses straightened, you might as well have stayed at home. The two inside lanes were the only game in town.
Of course, as always, the trick was to calculate which horses were going to find those favourable spots.

What were the rewards?

Eight from eight.
Old Spinney found his way through in the opening race, and finally broke his duck at Rosehill.
Then Brilliant Light destroyed his opposition in the second race, finding a remarkable gap on the inside as they turned.
Strike One ambled along in front, smoking his pipe, and just kept going.
Montana Flyer showed guts and clung to the lead on the rails. She looked like going down, but that was the place to be.
Chance Bye made a bit of a joke of the two-year-olds pitted against her. In retrospect, the price was one of the early Christmas gifts of 2010.
Monton got the right break. The runner-up, Shoot Out? Well, let's put this so I know you'll understand what I'm saying: he should have shot it in, but nothing won from way out there.
Winter King won again, a course and distance winner within seven days at double-figure odds (and exactly where he sat last week, and he held on again, just like that).
And then Sophistication stole the final race with a wonderfully-judged inside burst to save the bacon of all the favourite-backers.

More convinced than you were?

Think back to the last running of the Golden Slipper, and the ride of pure genius to get Phelan Ready through on the inside.
The name of the game on this track is so often "faith and patience".

Believe.

An Old Warning

Nothing's certain in racing.

Surprised at this comment? Of course not.

But for many years now I've warned against the outside barriers in sprints at Rosehill.

Except when it's wet. Then all bets are off anyway.

I suggest you use Saturday's meeting as a theoretical practice run for the big races ahead. Circle the two outside draws in all races of 1100, 1200 and 1300 metres.

Ignore the races with eight or nine starters, as obviously the issue becomes irrelevant.

See if anything comes of this simple test manoeuvre.

We can have a look afterwards. The fields are small this weekend but there might still be a noticeable trend.

The Golden Slipper is one race where I've saved a lot of money by avoiding those outside barriers. It's quite true that the statistics say some races ARE won from out there, but it would be interesting to know if many - or ANY - of the BIG ones have been!

I doubt it very much.

The handicap is too great, even for the early speedsters.

We're testing a few ideas at the moment. Saturday's idea concerns My Bentley and Bentonic in Race 5 at Caulfield.

Interesting Changes

I think something of great value could have come out of that last blog. You'd have seen that your horse was either 1-2-3 on the turn or forget it... well, there's more to it than that.

Two previously hugely-fancied chances for Flemington on March 6 went out the betting gate after failing on Saturday.

Sirmione ran nowhere and fell from $9 to (best) $18.

He's had fourteen runs at Caulfield and he's a maiden there.

His second-up performances are equally stunning.

None from eight, in fact.

He usually runs a big race first up, then has a leisurely run afterwards.

Nature of the beast.

Yet the bookies have dropped him to $18.

He excels at Flemington, where they'll run the Australian Cup.

And...

Headway ran a blinder first up, then got herself all tangled up on the turn at Caulfield.

One from five there now.

That first up run, and her Group One success, were both at Flemington.

Where they'll run the Newmarket.

And she's gone out to $26 from around $15.

Well, if they both lose ingloriously I guess it's the nature of the game.

But isn't it interesting?

A Track to Be Wary Of...?

Remember that little girl with the curl? I now unofficially dub Caulfield that "lttle girl" of the Australian turf.

When she's good, she's very, very good.

You know the alternative.

Of course there are no fast lanes at Caulfield.

Eh?

Of course there are not programs when front runners win all afternoon.

Eh??

Of course there are not other days when to race in front, or on the pace, is certain death for your chances.

Eh???

And of course the jockeys work this out early in the day.

EH????

If you baulked at each of the above statements and fell in with the "Eh" group, you're in strong company. It can be a wonderful track. All the problems were going to be solved a few years back when all sorts of gardening renovations were carried out.

I call it as I see it, and I see Caulfield as the hardest track I've ever known to assess accurately.

Saturday brings marvellous racing. A couple of my colleagues had coffee with me this morning and they're excited as all-out about the big racing there.

I agree.

I just can't bring myself to open my wallet very far.

Your money, your choice.

I just hope you're more confident than I am about your chances of reading the signs.

hoofnote: We're testing a few ideas at the moment. Saturday's idea concerns Rangirangdoo and McClintock in Sydney (Race 6, the Apollo Stakes).

Deep Pockets Required.

They fell over themselves to tell you of the certainties racing on Saturday.

Manhattan Rain at blood-red odds (jumped in the air and found yet another way to lose his race), How many times is that he's let punters down?

Nicconi (couldn't be beaten, they said- ran an awful race... probably off to Europe after this... now what's in store for him? The Newmarket?)

Alverta creamed the mares again.

Hindsight, that wonderful sense, struck again as I sat in the gloom of Randwick.

My goodness, that mare stretched Takeover Target - was it early last year?

And she was in proven hard form, and she was being offered at sevens in some quarters.

A Randwick duck put me off (none from three, but one was that run behind the champion). I wonder when I'll learn about class...

Speaking of class: top-class mare Zarita mashed the ordinary lot at the Valley. Now that was expected.

The Jackal was again slipped north and again beat a decent field. He did it last year.

Henry Ford once said "History is bunk".

He was wrong, of course, and, in the case of racehorses, very wrong.

They'll go on doing what they do. The winners will repeat, and so will the losers most of the time.

Those words of Steve SImpson (Always Back Winners) so many years back should haunt us after yesterday:

Back a horse to do exactly what it has done before. Winners will continue to win and losers... well, we know the rest.

It's Usually Easier the Day After.

Ah hindsight!. A wonderful sense, that.

Anyway Growl won, easily as it turned out, from De Fine Lago. So that formline analysis came through, at least for two of the five. The other three?

Rathsallagh, the mare which had been racing against mares and had scored one other win in umpteen starts, proved to be out of her depth and ran last. We were right to be very cautious about the class here. Her rider, Glen Boss, had expressed genuine surprise that she'd come up favourite. Bangerang Quikpic led but he had to do much to get there, and then was given no peace by something that caved in. Playwright ran a big race too but was sooled along early.

The track was never going to be heavy. Ultimately declared a dead 4, even that was playing safe. It's a lovely track and enjoys a marvellous setting.

I guess I'm an old school type, but if the frivolities were passed over in favour of the real reason for being there, I'd be happier. But then those 18,000-odd people would be 8,000, and the coffers and all racing would suffer. Maybe some of those young'uns who flitted around will come back...

What did we learn? That it's often all there for us on paper before we go, and we can at least usually fine a field down. That's a BIG start.

Hobart's Hard to Beat

I'm in Hobart for the running of the big race at Elwick. Surely one of the world's prettiest sites, with the hills and the Derwent just beyond the back straight, this is a racing man's delight.

The track itself is designated a Heavy 8. That's hard to work out, given the marvellous weather that's been beaming down all weekend. Ista Kareem loves the wet. Maybe the paper's wrong? Of course, it did rain overnight a couple of nights ago, but there's still a lot of dryness to the north of Hobart (where the track is). We shall see!

The race has some very interesting entries. Remember that Oaks in Brisbane in the slush, when Riva San swept home for PPM readers at about 25/1? Well, she beat Rathsallagh, which also looked the goods.

Neither did another thing all spring.

Rathsallagh came back into training and won two Sandown races in a breeze. Mares events, but easy for her. However, prior to those two wins she had one win from about twenty starts. Now there's a dilemma! She's favourite here, too.

Bangerang Quikpic is every bit as interesting, for different reasons. His trainer Darren Weir is shooting for three successes in four years and Craig Williams is going for the hat trick. The horse looked decidedly unlucky last start and is obviously a very promising sort. If you check the formlines of De Fine Lago, Growl and Playwright you'll see that they can all be compared: a useful punter's tool.

The local hope Assent has drawn way out. That makes it harder still for a horse that doesn't come into the race with the qualifications of the northerners.

So, even if we're not betting, we can always learn by analysing both before and AFTER the race.

Give it a few minutes both sides of its running, if you can.