Welcome to "On the Punt" with the Optimist

THE WAY I SEE IT

Well, for what it's worth, here's my thinking on the big race. Yes, it's 48 hours ahead, but then we've been thinking about it since late last year. Maybe that will pay off, maybe not.
1. Americain: Won last year with a foot in the air and won at his only run here this year (but he really had to if he was to have any chance on Tuesday with 58). It's the weight that worries me, not the horse. On the other hand, see my previous blog. Now we're told that barrier 15 is a hoodoo. Fiddlesticks!
2. Jukebox Jury: Has to carry a big weight and may not get the favours in front as he's had back home (and for that matter all over the place).
3. Dunaden: Tie me to a tree and make me pick and I'm hard pressed to go around this chap. Again see my previous blog, and this is the weight good horses win with. He's in top form and if Craig Williams manages to get off the country races charge (words fail me there except "what the heck was he doing riding in that meeting at such a crucial time?") then I expect a big go on him in the markets.
4. Drunken Sailor: Doesn't give anything away on the training track. Hard to assess but goes the trip and ran on a bit (just a bit) in the Caulfield Cup.
5. Glass Harmonium: Gee I can't see him getting 3200 metres. He's a top class middle distance horses isn't he?
6. Manighar: Another Cumani and is strong at the distance. Can't see a win there but the Caulfield Cup run was powerful and he did hold on well.
7. Unusual Suspect: Just behind Manighar at Caulfield. An American horse that was being offered around to prospective share buyers a couple of weeks back.
8. Fox Hunt: You could say about most of them "don't underestimate". Well, here's a case in point. I don't know where you'd fit him in, but that German win looks good on paper.
9. Lucas Cranach: I don't mind admitting to having taken a bit at nice odds a month or so back. I watched with my pocket in the first Cup and the run was super. Lee Freedman knows more about these runners than most of the training fraternity, and while his brother would reap the glory Lee put in the hard yards picking this one out.
10. Mourayan: Has run a third at only try 3200, but never won at further than 1800 metres. He'll make his own luck.
11. Precedence: Bart. Need one say more? Look I fell into this bloke three times and got burnt. So no, I won't be there cheering, and he hasn't won for a year. Bart says he's the best he's ever been.
12. Red Cadeaux: Anybody who doesn't know that I'm a Michael Rodd fan didn't read my articles over the last decade. Goes the distance and third in an important lead-up in Ireland.
13. Hawk Island: Giant killer Chris Waller has this bloke and when it was brought here two years ago this race was the reason. Hard to be confident after Caulfield and he fell in the Sydney Cup (but then the track was appalling).
14. Illo: Bart again. Big run at Moonee Valley. Bart felt he was too soft and fed him up when he took over. Got to be a chance.
15. Lost in the Moment: BB likes this one a lot, and there's no better judge. That Goodwood second was a hell of good run.
16. Modun: A huge inexperienced sort. Beaten in the Ebor by a stronger horse. Doesn't look seasoned enough, does he?
17. At First Sight: A one-race winner that's a huge chance at the weights after his last two screamers. Hasn't won for more than two years but then only had eleven starts all up.
18. Moyenne Corniche: I stand or fall on a couple of 40/1 bets I took early. I did my homework, then watched the Ebor. Sure, two wins from 26 tries (another ten minor placings), but he's a big chance and I'm very pleased they've got Brett Prebble, who rides so well here, on top. The run at Caulfield in the Herbert Power could hardly be missed from a staying point of view.
19. Saptapadi: Same trainer. Even worse strike rate. Fifth behind stablemate at York (Ebor Handicap). Awful run in the Caulfield Cup.
20. Shamrocker: There was a time... and I loved her for that Derby win... but you'd have to make a gigantic leap of faith to have her now, wouldn't you? On past efforts she doesn't like mud, either.
21. The Verminator: Of course there are arguments for him. Most wins, and this isn't weight for age (as the Mackinnon was), but isn't he aiming just a little too high?
22. Tullamore: Third in the Caulfield Cup, second in the Valley Cup... meets Americain at much better weights... There's form in those runs and the rider's a winner.
23. Niwot: Didn't really come out of nowhere. Strong win/place record and one of only two to win over course and distance. Saturday's run reminded me of some other "Hotham" Handicaps. Believe me, he's in the mix.
24. Older than Time: I recall when they ran the Sydney Cup she was a young and inexperienced mare but stayed on well for second (a weak cup, though, and the favourite Hawk Island fell). That Lexus run was awful after a being right up on the pace. Maybe it was not the place to be Saturday. Gai has two near the bottom (Tullamore and this one) and she never stops trying.

Just looking at our two Frogs:

Americain has done it, whilst Dunaden hasn't had the chance yet.

They've met twice this year and Dunaden has beaten Americain home twice, including a win at 3000+.

While Americain has a proven great rider, Dunaden has the man of the moment and surely someone who knows Flemington better. Who would you back at the moment to win any race? (of course this is up in the air as I type it - we can only hope Craig is on his best legal legs).

Americain has 58kg (a BIG weight) and Dunaden has 54.5kg, including a penalty, which is more or less the weight Cup horses win at. In fact in the past 50 years only three repeaters have won with 58 or more. On the other hand, this is a repeater!

If Americain hadn't won last weekend you'd have said he had little hope on Tuesday. He virtually had to beat that mob. On the other hand it was a romp. Dunaden's win was very similar to that of Americain's in 2010.

TAB Number One isn't a great number.

Dunaden is six, a sparse winner, whilst Americain at seven seems ironically better off statistically.

Last start winners that go up in distance are repeaters.

Americain is a scarce commodity at $4.30, whilst you can get Dunaden at $8.50 with one major group at present, and you can bet each way with FOUR places.Check around. He's placed 20 of 27 races.

Americain has placed 16 of 26 but has a higher win rate of 38.4% as against 25.9%.

Highly regarded ace racing journalist John Michael has provided me with more interesting factors:

Dunaden ran the same time as Americain did to win the Geelong Cup.

Dunaden now carries the same weight, 54.5kg, that Americain carried to win the Melbourne Cup last year.

The handicapper hasn't gone overboard with Dunaden's weight rise owing to the fact "he hasn't done it".

Craig Williams can ride a wooden horse from K-mart and win the Melbourne Cup.

No one would ever take into account the Moonee Valley Cup winner, yet now the experts want to tell you that this time it's different. Only three horses have done theMoonee Valley Cup/Melbourne Cup double, the most recent Kingston Rule (but he did have The Man training him).

Is it because of the hype and hysteria of the internationals that the bookmakers are pushing us into Americain, or are the Australian horses just that inferior?

Do you really want to take 13/4 about Americain, when he has to break several records to succeed?

Don't forget the Lexus and Mackinnon with all those trying to force their way into slots 22-23-24. Apparently the experts are already saying that what wins Saturday cannot back up on Tuesday and win. It's been done, and a lot more than once.

Showers are forecast again.

Thanks JM. On Monday I'll get around to another free blog, this time assessing the entire field for the Cup.

PUNTERS HAVE GOOD BRAINS... BUT SOMETIMES...

I wonder how long you'll spend on assessing the Run to the Rose at the Rosehill track Saturday afternoon. Speaking for myself, I took somewhere between five and ten minutes.

Then I abandoned it as totally hopeless.

It's hopeless on three grounds: in the first place, any attempt to line up the top three horses (in fact the top four, if you include Karuta Queen) will be marred by lack of knowledge on any number of counts.

Secondly, the early markets suggest that bookmakers are determined to make a killing by brainwashing the poor old punters about the incredible quality of the favourite.

Don't get me wrong, the favourite may win easily. But then, you're going to expect that aren't you, from an odds on proposition?

Thirdly, there's also the question of the barrier. I fell about laughing when I read in a major racing paper that "Glen Boss will more than make up for a fact that the horse has drawn barrier eight in a field of eight".

Remember that's over 1200 metres at Rosehill. There are probably worse places in Australia to draw the outside of the field, but I can't think of any.

Not only that, but the entire field inside him all appear to be leaders or on-pace runners. Not one of them will willingly surrender an inch to allow Boss to place the favourite anywhere nearer to the fence.

There's a scenario in which he could be five or six wide for the first two or three hundred metres. Quite possibly he could still be there as they swing into the straight, five or so hundred metres from home.

It happens.

Often.

Are you going to take odds on to find out? But wait, there's more.

Fourthly, both of the top two have black marks against their stable manners. I'm sure you know all about this, and the black marks are serious. Sure, everything's been fixed up and it can't possibly happen again.

Funny thing that, but you know I like to actually see that it's been taken care of. The only way I will see it is in a real race. As things stand, we've got one serious delinquent and one that could do with some kind of satellite tracking device.

Against this, you've got one of the fastest fillies in Australia (down at the very bottom of the field) and she'll probably be in front when they swing. It looks as though she isn't as good as first thought, but there won't want to be any shenanigans and jostling behind her, because Tommy Berry just might grab the opportunity to say au revoir as they straighten up.

My view, for what it's worth is, that the race will be a fascinating spectacle, and that any punter with something approaching a genuine racing brain will avoid having any financial interest whatsoever.

Now for other bit...

As I will advise my good friends in the next PPM, I've finally decided to retire, although I may afterwards be offered some work on a part-time basis, including perhaps this blog. For the time being, however, this is it. It's been a wonderful trip and I've met so many great friends. I'd like to think that I've been able to help punters by perhaps pointing them in the right direction at times, and to thank you all for putting up with my ramblings, week in/week out.

Tommy Berry was referred to above with regard to a very famous "till we meet again" tentative farewell, so I now say to you,

"Au Revoir, My Friends". But do say hello if our paths happen to meet, would you please?

EARLY BIRDS AND WORMS.

There's nothing wrong with a few early bets on the Cups and the Plate - provided you keep a sense of perspective.

If you feel that something is over the odds (i.e. you're being offered better than the real chance) then sure, have a slap at it.

BUT...

Remember that it's a GAMBLE.

A gamble on fitness.

A gamble on placement.

A gamble on a gamble on a gamble.

So remember that your bet should be around 0.0001% of your usual betting level.

That's just a figure but I want to make the point that you're probably going to lose the bet.

There'll be times when you win though.

The way to make sure they count is to assess the risk and bet accordingly.

For instance, much as you might like Scarlett Lady, she's NOT a proposition.

Horses go wrong. Every day. I sure hope she doesn't, but at $10 or so she's not my idea of an early bet.

But two horses are.

They're in the Cox Plate.

Sincero and Ilovethiscity.

I agree they may both miss the race. But they are the types that can improve enough to be real chances.

Now for the tricky bit, as Basil Fawlty once said.

The prices vary greatly online.

I've seen Sincero at up to $31 and around the $26 generally.

But Ilovethiscity is $31 with two bookmakers, $41 with another, $51 with three others and (wait for it) $81 with another.

I can't advertise here, but you've got eyes and fingers, so check before you buy, before you choose YOUR horse, whatever it is.

True, the horse can still lose/not run; but those ten minutes could repay you massively.

OMENS

A day or so back a horse called Doctor Doom won in Sydney.

So?

Well, a few pages before I got to the races in my paper, the financial section had a heading with "Doctor Doom says..."

I have no idea who that is, or what he said, not being interested enough to go any further. Besides which, stock market types have always seemed to me to be merely speculators and punters who dress themselves up and give themselves airs and graces (they call themselves "investors"... if they are, they're not very good at what they do, are they?).

But it was an OMEN.

I didn't take the hint and my wife would say I missed a winner as a result, but then I can't go with that sort of thing. A feeling? Sure, I've had those.

I won a 100/1 bet on La Neige in 1976 because I "felt", several nights before, she would win the big race. You remember those.

Long time ago, though.

My wife won a decent amount some years ago with a nag called Key Issue in Sydney. It then tried to repeat the dose in four states and so far as I know never managed it.

We'd lost our housekeys about six months before at a friend's weekender. We went back for another quick break, and there they were on the table - our friend had found them during a massive clean-up. So my wife insisted I find a horse with a clue to all that, and Key Issue was in the first at Randwick.

Ten each way at 30/1.

Ian Craig called the horse a distinct last at the furlong but it swept home.

Amazing, but true.

I'm still not a believer, but Doctor Doom made me think and remember: I guess there are worse ways to make a buck.

Just ask the stockbrokers.

BABIES GALORE!

New season, new names.

BUT what do we know about them?

In one word, nothing.

Well of course we know what most of them cost.

Trouble is, the pricey ones sometimes aren't what they're cracked up to be.

And some of the kids from the poor sections of town are budding champs.

I've just written a major article for the September issue of PPM on this topic.

I'm confident that it's important, especially for anyone who is either starting out, or is still at their L-Plate stage, in this difficult game.

Come to think of it, aren't we all?

Anyway, this isn't an advertisement: no, the thought just struck me this morning that there will be readers amongst you who accept what you read without considering how much evidence lies behind what is printed.

That's something to be very careful about where the new season babies are concerned.

RAIN, RAIN and MORE RAIN.

Sydney's had the worst July week of rain in years and years. It means, for the punter, one word.

It means DON'T.

Two words?

DON'T BET!!!

IF they race, and personally I couldn't care less at this stage, because form has gone for a (literal) bath, then ignore them and look interstate.

Or live to regret it on Sunday...

SOME EQUINE EVIDENCE.

On Saturday at Rosehill, BRAYROAN was backed as if unbeatable.

All Friday and half of Saturday.

He eased a little on track as the smart operators offered temptations.

Looked beautiful as they paraded.

He started from Barrier 8 of 11 at the difficult Rosehill 1500 run.

And he stayed wide through out.

Even from 8.

And he retained his proud record of not winning in six tries first and second up from a spell.

You had to take around $3 to support him, with those threats hanging over his head.

Have another look at that earlier blog...

WHAT YOU KNOW... AND WHAT YOU DON'T KNOW...

It's too easy to let the papers do your work for you.

So simple. You read about a horse you've never heard of, starting at an unfamliar venue, and with a half-page write-up.

And it will be $3.00 favourite.

Money for jam.

I often wonder if the writer has heard of the horse either.

Or even (often) the trainer.

Where did he get the story?

Oh please, leave me out of these page-fillers!!!

Thursday early afternoon, and a huge rush to get the stuff ready for the Friday editions.

Aha! A filler! Beauty!!!

OK, so here are your criteria:

1. If you've never heard of it, DON'T BACK IT.

2. If you aren't totally familiar with the venue, FORGET IT.

3. Focus on what you know and understand.

You'll miss a handful of winners, but you'll also miss a hell of a lot of losers!!!!!

THE BEST IN THREE PLEASE.

I stress that these are MY three and that they will vary according to whom you ask. Anyway here we go: one, two and three

ONE

The horse. Simple as that, really. There are horses I know and trust, others that I don't. Consistency is a big factor in earning my trust, as is the ability in a sprinter to sustain a sprint, or even better to sprint twice in a race. Some of the middle distance stayers I know and trust also have that rare ability to find another gear (So You Think is an ultimate example of this).

TWO

The rider. Years ago I'd have denied much interest in this, arguing that a decent jockey can ride the required race on a decent horse. I don't say that any more. Now I like to be with the very best if it's at all possible, and much of the time it is.

THREE

The barrier position. This one has been a vital factor for me all my life, regardless of the distance of the race. Diffferent horses are of course suited by different draws, but several metropolitan tracks destroy the chances of anything outside barrier eight or so in races up to a mile. In addition to this, I can eliminate a significant percentage of contenders in most races just by studying this factor. Obviously there are exceptions (the Melbourne Cup, an exceptionally long race, is one such anomaly).

So there we have them: HRB, the three factors I'lll tend to look at first.

A rider I don't regard as top of the heap? Out goes that horse.

A barrier draw I see as disadvantageous? No further need to examine that horse's chances today.

And most of all, the horse itself. I must both know the horse and respect the horse. If I do not, then the horse will never carry my money.