Welcome to "On the Punt" with the Optimist

A Simple Plan

As we know from the movie, simple plans can also have their potholes. However, this is one of the easiest half-minutes I know of and it's sometimes amazingly effective.

Take Flemington on New Year's Day. Three races exceed $100,000 in prizemoney. The others all come in at $75K or less.

Randwick has six at $40K and two at $100K and $101K respectively.

The Gold Coast has one at $100K and all others struggle to get serious.

Perth hosts its Cup. One at $40, six at 50K, one at $101K and the Cup at $424,000.

Suddenly instead of about three dozen races we have reduced the survey to eight.

Assumedly the class is in those eight. If you like class above the other, there's your thirty seconds well spent.

It isn't perfect, but it's often a great start if you want to do a "stage one cull".

Happy New Year!

Not too many features for you, Just a handful I believe we might keep thinking about for 2010.

1. The whip.

Well, my information is that most horses won't race at their ultimate speed without it. We live in a punter's world and we've allowed non-punters to call the shots. OK, fine, but ultimately it will all need to be radically revisited, or else we'll have a real "form means nothing" mess.

2. The jumpers.

Same comment as above. Bye-bye most slow thoroughbred horses. Race until you drop, then off to the knackery. Was this what the do-gooders really wanted? I doubt it. But did we have real and meaningful consultation? No need to answer that.

3. Prepost Betting.

I have a whisper that one major player (a recent one) has been bailed out twice now. Odd that, since I can't make a consistent go of prepost at all. Even my good results, such as Sniper's Bullet at Ascot, go to the post at either the same price or LONGER than I was offered early. Maybe the shorties are the way to go. If so, that's for the very big players. Not much use to us.

4. Benchmarks.

This may just turn out to be an absolute winner. I'll wait with bated breath and watch it unfold.

5. Best Riders are Best Bets

No doubt about that. Proved again by the results most of the year. In 2010 you could do worse than home in on two, maybe three riders and focus your betting on them. If they are riding on-pace horse, the bet is probably a better one. Fewer worries when you're up near the front!

6. Best Trainers too

They win. Bart, of course, but others do too. Again maybe half a dozen of them. You'll miss winners (of course!) but you'll become familiar with the tactics of the best. That should be a big bonus.

There we go. Just a handful to pop in the diary. So...

Happy New Year to All of You out there, and thanks so much for being the most important part of our show.

You Wanted to Know

For most of last year, we regularly received requests to stay with the progress of the pure white Newcastle filly, THE OPERA HOUSE.

She races early on the program today at her home track.

Not a tip, and anyway there'll be a heck of a lot of sentimental cash on her.

Just info for our many enquirers!

T.O.

Merry Christmas and A Happy Boxing Day!

I do hope your Chrissie Day was a bottler, and that it all ended safely and happily.

So what's on the agenda for the weekend?

A special bet?

One you've been sweating on?

Or the usual?

If it's the usual, let's hope you're doing most things the right way.

Right way? Well I guess I mean winning, not losing...

As it's nearly New Year and the time for those resolutions, let's suggest just TWO "right approaches" for 2010. We can practise this weekend, as we're a mere six days away!

1. STICK TO ONE, TWO OR THREE PROGRAMS MAXIMUM.

2. DETERMINE YOUR PREFERRED BETTING TYPES AND STICK.

Programs:

Well, if you have a smorgasbord of 200 races or more, limit your focus to the two or three tracks you know and understand best. To use an old fashioned cliche, you can beat a race but you can't beat the races. Try to pick the winner of every race on those three programs (your best three programs!!!) and watch the results. They're unlikely to be flattering. It's not easy.

Preferred Betting Types:

If you have a diary, see where your successes have come. Win? Place? Multiples? Exotics?

Stick to what you KNOW you do best, and jettison the rest.

Just two then, no more, as we don't keep them when we make too many promises to ourselves.

With only two, we just might.

How NOT to Win the Quaddie

Sunday was a slow day, and after the ordeal of the long Villiers drive home the night before, I amused myself keeping an eye on the races and on the selections.

No names. no pack drills, but at the end of it all I offer you these revealing figures, just in case you're considering following the tipsters to your fortune.

Top paper, mind you, but no names or anything like that. Remember they all had four goes to name the winner in each leg.

Hawkesbury quaddie (five tipsters making four tips every race): no winner, one winner, five winners (2/1 on), no winners, $2800.

Cranbourne: winner, second selection, fourth seln, fourth seln ($800).

Sunshine Coast: none, none, third seln, fourth seln ($13,000).

Port Lincoln: third seln, fourth seln, third seln, third seln ($6000).

Hobart: nothing, second seln, nothing, nothing ($9800).

New Zealand: nothing, nothing, nothing, won (not won).

Bunbury: nothing, third seln, fourth seln, nothing.($2800).

Horsham: nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing ($26,000).

Taree: fourth seln, nothing, nothing, nothing ($4100).

Taking the four selections in every quaddie leg (we have to ignore Hawkesbury as there were five tipsters) would have cost $256. Nine meetings, so over $2000. For that we'd have managed to haul in Port Lincoln and Cranbourne ($800). Maybe that return of less than 2/1 is OK by you.

You had to have access to Port Lincoln and Cranbourne and be prepared to outlay on all nine venues. In my view, that way lies madness.

Comments welcome.

A Brief Thought.

I've been doing the form for the weekend. So what's new, you ask.

Well, it's the number of races I was able to strike a pen through within ten to fifteen seconds.

And it's Villiers Day in Sydney, no less.

All the usual suspects. Only in the early couple of races are there any likely new rays of sunshine, and apart from one in Race 2, I can't see any possible bet in them anyway.

Flemington and Doomben offer the same sort of fare, apart from the (impossible to unravel) Lough Neagh Stakes at Doomben with its amazingly inflated prizemoney. Morphettville's prizemoney tells its tale.

If you're still around at about a quarter to seven (EDT), the Ascot (WA) C.B.Cox Stakes is worth a look. But that's mainly owing to the presence of the topweight, Scenic Shot. Take that one out and, um...

There are some very good movies on in town at present...

HOWEVER...

I have always argued that a moderate-class winner at $8 pays the same as an $8 winner of the Melbourne Cup. And is much easier to get.

Maybe there's one in there somewhere this weekend.

Just, as I say, a brief thought.

Every Race? Sorree!

Can't be done. When you listen to the tipsters, or watch them, remember they are PAID (and handsomely at that) to pick horses- up to four or more- in every race on their program. Maidens, two year olds, events full of first starters, races for grey horses, and so forth.

Horses they would never (one hopes) support with real cash. Horses that even their own mothers could not back.

After the race we have to listen to why the winner won, and why it was all so logical and could have been foreseen.

I believe that it helps the ordinary punter to realise that these selectors are compelled to go this line. They MUST name four chances (some name seven or eight!) and they MUST comment positively on the results. Some folk find it exasperating that all the losers named are rarely mentioned afterwards, but the odd winner is accompanied by so much congratulatory applause. Well, it's a game in which we all like to be proved right (even if we weren't).

SO... what to do?

Don't take it seriously. You'll get clues, and some good points. But winners will be hard to come by. Imagine for a moment. A panel of this lot pick for a race. They name four different winners. And amongst their four tips each, we have maybe ten horses.

What can a punter do?

As I say, we will hear things that matter and can be used. We have to get rid of all the "I think" , "As I said".and "I hope" comments (they are sometimes hard to identify but practice helps: you'll sense that the tipster is desperate to talk us into something because it's his personal crossed-fingers pick).

But by and large, why not just ignore the tips - all ten thousand of them - and listen for the possible insights?

Then analyse them, and dispense with the rest.

Besieged By Races!

Yes, I headed this blog "racing" but maybe it's racES.

Great Jumpin' Jehosaphat! HOW MANY?

There are dozens today (Friday), both metropolitan and other, and (it seems) hundreds of trots and dog races. As for Saturday, then Sunday, well you just lose count.

Never was there a better argument for regulation, for a new SKY station dedicated to city gallops, and not looking like the dog's breakfast (after he's eaten it too fast and we're now inspecting the returns).

As to the form guides, well, how can they possibly cope?

It's a sign of greed and to hell with the punter. So... what can you, the sensible and controlled investor, do?

I suggest you start by working out just what your best chances of winning are. I mean, for example, what kind of races are best FOR YOU?

Then put a ###*** big red diagonal line through all the rest.

It is imperative that at all times we remember why we are here.

To make money.

If there's anyone reading this who doesn't agree with that, either (a) you're on the wrong page or (b) you just don't get it. It's what racing is all about. No betting, no racing. Good betting, good racing. Great betting... see the steps?

SO I reckon you don't need anything that you are not thoroughly familar with. Or that you don't trust your chances in.

My regulars all know that I won't touch two year olds until the Golden Slipper carnival, and that I only dip in then because of the anomalies on offer. Call it learning the hard way. I couldn't beat the kids' races, so I walked away. I don't even try to assess the fields. Sure I watch these races, but that's with an eye on the future. I CANNOT win on two year olds, so, knowing that, I don't even consider the chances.

Rarely will I stray outside Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. Maybe Adelaide and Perth when there's an opportunity, but not (for example) Sha Tin or Dubai. Not even (for example) Toowoomba, because I can't be sure of my assessment procedures and I don't have access to anyone that I regard as a course expert.

Be selective.

Know your selectors and the limits of your own abilities.

Scorn all the other races.

There's only one game in town: it's the money game.You cannot, you will not, win this game, unless you follow these fundamental principles.

A Sea Change? It's Allowed

A sea change is a major shift in position. Many of us watched that marvellous show on ABCTV in the 1990's and vividly recall the shift undertaken by the major character and her family.

Well. mine is nowhere near that magnitude; however, for some time I've been dishing it out to a form of exotic betting (one of a line of crackpot ideas). I was seeking a way of insuring my "AB" Trifecta bet that I have championed for years (AB/AB/Field). In races that suit the bet, of course.

That very fine and much-missed American writer, Dick Mitchell, also supported the fundamentals of the AB concept and wrote many chapters about it.

I realised last week that I can go close- I DO go close- and just miss out too often to ignore. So, the duet might have a role to play.

Yes you read that correctly. I've slammed duets, spinners and the like for years. But, if I can get second and third, as against first and second, or first and third, the duet will insure me (and anyway, first and second/ first and third still pays the duet).

Say we had a dollar on an AB trifecta with twelve runners ($20), with $30 on each of the two (A and B) to win (that's $60), and then $20 on the duet. A $5 (4/1) duet covers the entire bet if I run second and third.

It doesn't exactly rival Einstein, Archimedes or Newton, but it might be just what I need. The "so close" syndrome can be a killer for confidence, and this simple if much-maligned bet just might be the support needed.

I am fond of the Running Double as a strategy. You can bet it on most TABs these days.

There are times when I know a horse in the second leg will be fancied, and when I agree with the assessment. Sometimes I can try to lock up a decent bet by taking two or three in the previous race, into my own pick. It's always worth thinking about, but of course the choices in that first leg need to be made very carefully. Otherwise it can be more profitable just to back the horse you like in the second leg straight out.

And there's no point in starting your Running Doubles with the one you really like, as the chances are everyone will be on it. You're hoping that it won't be in everyone's sights, on their radar if you like, when there's another race to be decided first.

It's a forgotten art, the Running Double. And some of the "overs" are quite surprising.

Keep an eye on it.