Welcome to "On the Punt" with the Optimist

Prepost Prices - How Can They STILL Be So Unreliable?

OK they come out Thursday so the Friday papers can print them late on Thursday evening.

True.

But by Friday morning at least two major bookmakers are advertising their assessments and they are frequently quite notably different.

And more accurate, as it turns out.

Maybe the paper prepost "speculations" should be treated as someone's ideas of how things ought to be?

But as they are depended on for so many systems, and let's face it for accuracy, it might be smart for some enterprising newspaper organisation to come to an arrangement with one of the big fellows who are up with their prices so early.

They are able to do it for the fixed prices on the big stuff.

Why not every weekend for every race?

Visitors Welcome

Ask me in October and I'd have said you were mad to even think it.

But then - again - a visitor ran second in the Cup.

Yes, in 2008 there was an eyelash in it.

This year, not much more.

And one ran third.

At the end of two miles of slog.

On their merits.

I like to think that if I am wrong in my attutude to something I might bet on, I can change my view.

I wasn't wrong in the 80's.

Or the 90's.

Or until the last few years...

But now, things have changed.

Those visiting trainers have learnt a thing or three.

Put me down as a convert.

Hang me from a high tree if I write them off in 2010!

Rules for a Solvent December

How much money can you really put out on racing this month?

If you win, well, that's great.

But what if it's a tough month?

(That's my euphemism for a losing month).

We all have them.

I do.

You do.

It's an expensive month anyway, and you want to go on enjoying the game too, so here is an idea:

If you have $200 maximum racing money for the month...

Put $100 in your bank account.

Put $100 in your racing account.

List them BOTH in your racing diary or whatever you use to keep your records.

Every time you do an update, that left hand column will show $100 in the bank.

Forget the interest, just as the bank virtually will. It's not our point.

And the right hand column will force you to be very serious about the progress of the month's betting activities.

Needless to say, if you bet bigger, put more in the bank too, at the start.

Then NEVER touch that left side.

Worst scenario?

Lose half.

But KEEP the other half for brighter days!

Another Thought of the Day

I don't know about you, but I'm a bit prone to waking up during the night and thinking about some assault or other that I'm planning on the enemy.

Last night, I wondered about trainers who set their horses to be at their peak when the pickings are still excellent, but the real strength of the top notchers has gone away.

Like, now.

Well, I'm not tipping here. I'm more into exploring.

But I've taken note of a few horses that are at quite attractive odds on what they can do, at their best. What they have done.

They've been prepared with a handful of runs against the cream, and now they're in their element. Or they should be.

Noticed any racing today? I reckon there are one or two.

A Tale of Two Rebels.

You recall the releasing of weights for the Melbourne Cup, some months back now.

Rebel Raider was very popular, and in the first 24 hours some decent bets went on. Months before the race.

He was installed as equal favourite or near enough in some instances.

One day later he injured a leg and his entire campaign for the spring was aborted. So, with months to go, money had been literally thrown away.

On Tuesday last, a nice little American-bred four year old called Border Rebel returned to the races. He'd recorded seven wins and two places from ten starts prior to this new campaign. He was a certain starter.

He'd won a trial, and prior to the spell he'd won his final two races on two Sydney tracks. One of these had been strong and with weight to carry. The nominal favourite was also resuming, had also won first up and had also won a trial. But it was over 800 metres and anyone who'd seen her on the racetrack would have known she stops as if shot soon after that.

Yet she was the favourite and $5 was available about Border Rebel. His price was gradually trimmed, and then with a rush it became $3.50. He won with his head on his chest, reeling in the mare as they turned and waving goodbye to the others.

Punters who went in early got their 4/1. Even the late arrivals got 5/2 or so. And everyone was assured of a start or money back if a late scratching.

My point is, which Rebel made the more sense? I guess it's a loaded question, but it's it's one to think about, agreed?

The Omen

My wife has little interest in racing. But every once in a blue moon she will say "See if there's a horse with that name", or I will mention a strange coincidence in a horse's name and she's all for having a dollar on it.

Funny thing, she's usually right. It just may be the greatest system I've ever uncovered and it's right there in front of me. I'll give you an example.

We'd been on a holiday. We had hidden the keys so they'd not be acquired by any marauding intruders (who didn't maraud and didn't intrude, but meanwhile we forgot where we'd put the keys).

We searched and we searched.

Nothing.

Fortunately we had another set, so we left a note for the owners of the holiday house and drove home. It was Saturday morning and of course that meant I was very interested in what I was missing by not being at Rosehill. I had the radio on, and Ian Craig was listing the runners for the first. Suddenly he came to a horse that made my wife sit bolt upright.

KEY ISSUE.

"Back it!" she ordered. I stopped the car and read her some comments which agreed with my own assessments, along the lines of "no hope", "maiden and will remain that way", and the like.

Having put my point of view as an expert, I phoned through and had a few dollars on Key Issue. Ian's call is etched in my brain. At the 200, the horse was LAST. I kid you not. As Ian called the field through one more time he specifically called it last.

Then that call of a lifetime:

"What's this flying down the outside? It's KEY ISSUE! Key Issue is going to win!"

Yep. 33/1. Paid more on the TAB.

Omens? Well, I can only tell you what happens. Key Issue never won again in Sydney, and then failed to win in three other states. I'm uncertain if it ever won anything again.

This was brought back to me on Sunday when I was at Newcastle races. I had a sandwich with a fellow who backs omens. Only small, fun stuff, but he gets some winners now and then. They staged the Robert Thompson Cup in honour of the gerat jockey. Rob came in last.

"There's the clue" said my acquaintance. "He'll try hard in the next races! He knows the track backwards. This is your omen."

The following race he ran fifth in a field of maybe seven.

"Trust me!" I was told. "Omens work and I feel this one in my blood."

Well, next race he was on a maiden. Timezov Peace. Five year old gelding. Fifteen starts, no wins, ONE third. You could get $31 most places and $41 here and there.

Thommo had this hopeless case placed beautifully, sooled it to the lead about 250 metres out, nursed it like a baby, and won comfortably by nearly a length. And my man won more than $600.

The good thing to report is that he took it home with him. He never expects more than one a day.

After all, he says, "Lightning never strikes twice".

WAYS OF LOOKING

10 to the sixth is a million.

This means if you can multiply your $10 by itself (10) five times, you will have $1,000,000 in the bank.

Sounds so simple, right?

10 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 = a million.

10 x 10 (100) x 10 (1000) x 10 (10,000) x 10 (100,000) x 10 (1,000,000).

That first 10 is the starting point.

It's 10 to the first power.

Then squared, cubed, quadrupled, quintupled, etc.

When there are six tens in the sequence we have a million.

I got thinking about that when I read the article on pages 4-5 in the new PPM.

Now all you have to do is get those multiples of the bank in place. Hmmm... suddenly it's not so easy.

BUT:

Six 10/1 winners all-up will actually get you more than that, as the stakes are carried along for the wild ride.

And, in theory, six 10/1 winners in the Big Six should pay a million dollars.

And the stakes.

Now isn't that interesting?

AFTER THE CUP

Everything is sort of "after the ballish" as I suggested, isn't it? The Sandown Classic is a good race, and the racing for the next month is very competitive and very interesting.

But of course it isn't the Cup. OK, so how do we regroup and set our sights on profit?

Try this philosophy:

We are the regulars. The genuine article. Not the once-a-year mob.

So we should do better now, with the easier racing coming up.

I know the argument that we can benefit from our knowledge when that big money is waved around. I use it. But we are still here! We didn't just come in for the big race.

And so I'm putting THREE suggestions to you. No more, and they're easy to follow.

1. Define your TARGETS for the remainder of 2009.

2. Allocate your bank NOW.

3. STICK to it.

Let's consider these, one by one:

1. Be precise about what you want out of the remaining six and a bit weeks of the calendar year.

2. Work out, and allocate, what you can afford to invest. That means what you are comfortable with. Be realistic.

3. Be adamant. Stick like a strong magnet. Whatever it takes, you must do. If it means stick to your major selector, DO IT. If it means stick to the best systems, DO IT. The key to long-term financial success in racing is not luck; it is in judgement and decision-taking.

By the end of the year, whether or not you won with the Cup, you should not only feel confident about your overall approach, but you will have taken the chance on offer to refocus, ready for 2010.

SOMETHING SHORT AND SWEET

Today, November 7, Vigor races over a mile (OK then, 1600 metres).

He was balloted out of the Melbourne Cup, and the two hopeless types that were allowed in (we were told their form merited it!!! God knows how) ran nowhere and worse than nowhere. And of course another was withdrawn in acrimonious circumstances.

If Vigor was trained for the Cup on Tuesday, can he now turn around and race a field of milers and even beat them? Well, it's his favourite track (five wins from seven goes) and the conditions are right.

I don't know, but I'll be fascinated to find out.

AFTER THE BALL

Well we've had it. Been and gone. And nobody could begrudge the winner his prize, could they? Did it the hard way.

I thought there could be a happy ending for me at the 250 as my earliest PPM nomination, Harris Tweed, moved up with my small 150/1 each way on his back; but he wilted to a decent fifth. Bart was probably unlucky if anyone was, as Viewed carried the weight and was still coming, even after the rough trip. Daffodil was clobbered early and again on the turn. Two visitors ran the minor placings, and frankly they both ran superbly.

So there goes another Cup.

It's worth remembering that Bart tells it as he sees it. What he thinks, what he hopes, what he's planning. Remember Sirmione? We snared him at 66/1 and better for the Mackinnon, and Bart thought he'd get the Cup trip. Didn't though, Just as Allez Wonder didn't. But Bart thought she could. Or at least might.

You can't carry them! If you want the honesty you must also accept the speculation that drives a top trainer. The "what if?" aspect of it all.

What now? It's all a sort of anticlimax, isn't it? The Oaks, and the QE, plus this and that and back to the drawing boards.

Take a day or two to regather your energy and enthusiasm.

Never forget my credo:

A $5 winner at Woop Woop pays exactly the same as a $5 winner in the Melbourne Cup, and it's darn easier to find!