Welcome to "On the Punt" with the Optimist

IF WISHES WERE HORSES

Indeed so. If only.

OK then, I wish for a $200,000 quaddie on this coming Saturday.

What are my chances?

Yep, zero, or close enough. Zilch. So close to none it's not even funny.

But then, people do pull it off.

Miracles happen, just as they do with Lotto.

As we hear so often, "someone has to win".

It's a bit like that zebra philosophy in reverse. You know, the zebras all stay in a sizeable herd because, when the lions attack and pull one down, then statistically it won't be you.

Uh huh... but someone has to lose.

And that's why it's the same in racing, only back to front.

You try to be out of the herd, because the herd won't win. OK? Weird.

If you're one of the mob, well, they all lose.

You try to be different.

Trouble is, the only way to that two hundred grand quaddie is by selecting the totally unusual, and then wishing your numbers can come up.

It's illogical, and it will be wrong almost every time. But someone, somewhere, will pick it.

Birthday dates, ages, lucky numbers, car numberplate numbers, whatever you like.

But not form, nor class, nor top rider, nor best stats, nor, well, we could go on and on.

Yes, beggars might ride.But look around you.

Seen any lately?

Oh there they are. See?

On those pink flying pigs up there.

(hoofnote: But I omitted one way to that pile that just might succeed for you,or for me, where all else fails. See if you can spot what I've omitted before next week when, as M. Poirot would say, all will be revealed).

Where Does The Nonsense End?

Dariana was one thing, but Firebolt was quite another.

True, Dariana caused her own problems last weekend and although it was a rotten break for supporters, she repaid the faithful on Saturday.

This Saturday though, Firebolt was denied a fair start.

I could see it on the monitor replay, with SKY World showing the inquiry (regardless of the fact that the person in charge of the transmission didn't seem to get the idea that you don't plaster a "recorded earlier" sign all over the spot where we had the viewers' monitor of the race!).

I saw the attendant's arm going up, similtaneously with seeing the barrier opening. I had it videod and watched it several times. How the stewards thought the horse had a show in Hades after that, I have no idea.

The starter's view of things was quite fairly challenged by Danny Nikolic, in enough stressful bother without this incident causing angst. If the starter could see what we could see head-on, he must have had X-Ray vision.

Yet the whole thing was rejected and the horse was declared a starter. And with it, thousands of dollars disappeared into the bookies' bags without the punters having a fair chance of a run.

It absolutely beats me how they could come to that decision, given they had a closer view than any of us yet we could see the arm rising.

There you go then: Way 191 for the poor old punter to cop a bashing.

MORE ON PREPOST BETTING

Betting prepost but with a declared final field means you get your money back if there's a scratching.

But there's an interesting twist to that.

Which is?

Deductions apply.

Now, I've mentioned this caveat before. If a reserve is taken out, but it's in the market, you have something deducted from your bet.

Fair enough?

Well, how about if it's third emergency and they price it at $5.00 or so?

See what I'm getting at? The market is probably around 130 anyway,as against maybe 110 or so in the real betting countdown leading down the start time.

Yet you are hit with the same deduction that you'd cop in a fairer market!

So, it has to be worth your while to have a shot prepost. Like, worth your while.

At present my quiet fancy for the Stradbroke is $13 (best anywhere). But there's an emergency being offered at around $7 to $8.

And the fave is $3 best.

Nasty deduction if a $7 chance is taken out.

Hmmmm....

Let's watch, and then see what we can see with the benefit of this experience...

BORDERING ON THE SUICIDAL

After the QTC Cup on Saturday last, I was convinced of two things.

1. Border Rebel can run out a strong 1400 metres, and

2. He should have won that race comfortably.

Tim Bell tried everything to extricate his mount over the final three hundred metres. He tried to get around four horses, then switched back, back, until he was on the inside again, and then made a belated rush... too late.

I've seen few as obvious as this one, yet he will be at excellent odds should he make the final cut for the Stradbroke. That's in the lap of the gods as he is 21st. He will make the emergencies but will he make the final 18?

As you see, prepost betting at this stage would be foolhardy. Same for Graceful Anna if you fancied her, since she needs one horse above her to stay at home. Incidentally, her run on Saturday was also superb from a Stradbroke point of view, so I suggest that you should wait and watch, and see how the marble drops. The prices on offer won't change much; all that will happen is that you'll be assured of a run* on whatever you fancy.

Hoofnote: Almost "assured of a run", anyway...I guess those who said a certain horse was the lay of the day were right... but what a way to lose! I wonder how it feels to see your horse, as the stalls open, with its head stuck over the side rail of the barrier. Not so bad, I suppose, as it feels when you find out you were on a starter!

Well, I've had mine bash his head on some idiot's radio/tv gadget in the stalls on Caulfield Cup day, so anything's possible. At least I got my money back though.

Hoofnote 2: (Wed evening) Well Border Rebel would not have made the 18, and he's not running. Graceful Anna is the last into the 18. Let's see what we learn from all this! - T.O.

AND THAT'S HOW IT IS, BOYO.

A wonderful English teacher and Welshman named Tom Davies, whom I knew in my youth, would end up every one of wise pronouncements with that telling sentence.

"And that's how it is, Boyo", he would tell me sagely.

And it usually was, too.

And we were told not too long afterwards that life wasn't meant to be easy. It stuck to the speaker like chewy. Was he right?

Well, betting can certainly be difficult, especially for any amateur going it alone.

Take the Doomben/Eagle Farm carnival.

You saw that blog about favourites.

And tomorrow I see there are amazing discrepancies in views from the learned judges. The Sydney papers carry three high profile national bookies' "best" and worst" for the day. Wait for it, it's coming... can you guess?

Yes, one bookie names a horse as his best of the day.

And (you're ahead of me, slow down...)

The other two name it as their lay of the day.

My gawd! Sorry punters.

Meanwhile, I have some figures for you, to follow that last lot from a few blogs back. They're again courtesy of the Mystery Pro:

Two horses came from last at Doomben last weekend. Kutchinsky won, Whobegotyou ran 2nd.

Every other winner or near-winner was in the first three coming to the turn. If you think you are good at this Brisbane racing caper, then here are the winners last Saturday:

r1 $7
r2 $18
r3 $3.90
r4 $41
r5 $6.0
r6 $8.50
r7 $5.50
r8 $13

Thank Mate. What can I say? An average punter out on his own must have a real job of it. Thrilling racing, but at a cost?

COFFEE OK, BUT NO CREAM

Well my friend got his money back and made $90. Nice?

Yes, but that was, after all, on a total bet of $2000. Not quite the cream on the coffee. Certainly no sugar.

Had he waited until post time, $5.50 was hard to get. Still a tiny profit each way, but questionable value as it reduced the 9/2 bet to an overall 5/2.

And he couldn't stagger it very much or he faced a loss if the horse only placed.

Again on the other hand, he'd have had $1000 going for the place instead of $800.

That's $125 profit overall if she only places.

On the surface though, I believe that the bet was sound. Under some circumstances Melito would have won.

She was a good bet, except for two things:

1. Had the weather been even nastier, the trainer was set to take the favourite out. The deductions on Melito would have been devastating, and undeserved because the market was around 130 when the bet was struck, and maybe 112 at the start.

2. The reset market may have still offered Melito at better odds than the reduced return our chap would have got.

So it's not all sugar and cream, and the jury remains out.

Next time I see the pro I'll see if he has an overall view on this.

Meanwhile, let's think hard on it.

COFFEE ANYONE?

Yes, well I'd bet that many of you immediately knew I was going to mention Melito, the three year old filly which has maintained her Group One form for Gerald Ryan and has Blake Shinn very confident about the big race.

She's drawn well, and frankly she really should have beaten Albert the Fat last start. Hot Danish? Well read on. Of course there are threats.

A pro pal of mine says that the way to bet on Melito is now, which he's done. The general call was $6, but the TAB offered $7.50. He feels that's generous.

But what he says has grabbed his interest is the PLACE componenent.

It's $2.62, give or take a cent. About 13/8 in real odds.

He says that, when they are ideally drawn with a top rider on top, young horses of this calibre repay his faith year in, year out.

He's staggered his bet to collect the lot back if she misses the win, but runs second or third.

So I understand he's had $1200 to win, returning him $9000.

And $800 to place, returning a small margin of profit overall.

If you want to look at it the way he does, he says he's got 9/2 with full insurance.

I know that some people avoid place betting, but that staggered bet is interesting, isn't it?

Anyway we can watch it first, and talk about it afterwards.

DOOMBEN TURNS IT ON

When answering a Q&A yesterday, I started to think about this blog, and what I could say that we haven't said about "bad" barriers.

Well, try this.

Saturday at Doomben presents a great program. Wonderful racing.

But (yes there's a but, and it's for you, the punter):

The barrier draw causes me deep concern.

It hasn't happened as I type this, so I can just speak freely with you and we can look at the issue again when it has happened.

I'm at a loss to work out how the Doomben 10,000 will be run.

It's as simple as that, and as difficult as that too.

Class, class, all class. Lovely horses.

But will the onpacers put paid to the rest, once the field has gone a few furlongs? It's more than possible.

With a barrier draw that favours the early speedsters, what hope have the rest got, on a track that so often favours the ones in a good position at the turn?

Sure, there are ways of coming from the rear, and it might happen.

But then, what's a good draw if you're going to drop out anyway?

As you know, I don't tip here. I'm just into probing for you and for me.

Think on it, consider what the chances are from the early market(s), have a look at their prices, then wait for the barrier draw.

And then we'll come back, and see what we can say that we can't say yet.

THE ROMAN INVASION

I had a most pleasant morning today with Roman Koz. Of course we talked racing.

What else?

Anyway, we exchanged all sorts of ideas on making money at the track, and we went over that old ground of Place Betting again. I was interested to find that the late E.J.Minnis, a great friend of Roman's and also of Practical Punting, was very keen on place offerings and had pursued the magic elixir for years.

We also spoke of the virtues of weight for age racing, and of Group One weight for age in particular. Neither of us could imagine a situation in which the two Doomben Cup favourites could miss a place this coming Saturday, but of course, as two hardened old punters, we also agreed that "it happens".

And it can, you know.

But... if you were forced to declare, on your life, the results of a race this coming weekend, where would you look? The only top show in town is on at Doomben.

And there's just one Group One weight for age race there.

And arguably it's pickable. I may retract this after the race, and I'm sure we all agree that what I'm saying is obvious and not new or any sort of revelation.

But back to that proviso above. If your life depended on it, wouldn't the weight for age Group One events be the ones you'd try to unravel?

Regardless of Saturday's outcome, this is a long term point I'm making. Roman told me of a pal who only bets on the sixty or so Group Ones and has done well now for the past five years.

Thinking about that, we don't need to be Einstein to realise that there are roughly 63 or so races over 52 weeks. True, Flemington and Randwick knock out several on their premier days, but if we were patient enough, I wonder how we'd go if we were to at least experiment on paper from now until, say, Christmas.

All you need to do is enter the name of the horse you think will win Saturday's big race, and then do this every time there's a Group One race. There won't be many more this season, so I'll give you a reminder in the early spring.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT? YOU'D BETTER BELIEVE IT!

"Hi T.O.

Your blog readers may be interested in this. I spent a bit of time on it this morning and frankly I'm staggered by it.

OK, in Brisbane on Saturday:

1. One favourite managed third in eight races.

2. Every other favourite missed out.

3. The track was "good".

4. So... WHAT IF IT HAD BEEN HEAVY??? Winners would probably have been even harder to find. Agreed?

5. Lining up Sydney, Melbourne, Kiwi and local form yet again proved a nightmare.

6. So... The ONLY way to travel for the next SEVEN (yes seven!) weeks is SLOWLY.

Just thought I'd run that by you!

Al the best."

Well! I'm signing off now, and you can have a think about it.

I'm certainly going to.