Welcome to "On the Punt" with the Optimist

It's Usually Easier the Day After.

Ah hindsight!. A wonderful sense, that.

Anyway Growl won, easily as it turned out, from De Fine Lago. So that formline analysis came through, at least for two of the five. The other three?

Rathsallagh, the mare which had been racing against mares and had scored one other win in umpteen starts, proved to be out of her depth and ran last. We were right to be very cautious about the class here. Her rider, Glen Boss, had expressed genuine surprise that she'd come up favourite. Bangerang Quikpic led but he had to do much to get there, and then was given no peace by something that caved in. Playwright ran a big race too but was sooled along early.

The track was never going to be heavy. Ultimately declared a dead 4, even that was playing safe. It's a lovely track and enjoys a marvellous setting.

I guess I'm an old school type, but if the frivolities were passed over in favour of the real reason for being there, I'd be happier. But then those 18,000-odd people would be 8,000, and the coffers and all racing would suffer. Maybe some of those young'uns who flitted around will come back...

What did we learn? That it's often all there for us on paper before we go, and we can at least usually fine a field down. That's a BIG start.

Hobart's Hard to Beat

I'm in Hobart for the running of the big race at Elwick. Surely one of the world's prettiest sites, with the hills and the Derwent just beyond the back straight, this is a racing man's delight.

The track itself is designated a Heavy 8. That's hard to work out, given the marvellous weather that's been beaming down all weekend. Ista Kareem loves the wet. Maybe the paper's wrong? Of course, it did rain overnight a couple of nights ago, but there's still a lot of dryness to the north of Hobart (where the track is). We shall see!

The race has some very interesting entries. Remember that Oaks in Brisbane in the slush, when Riva San swept home for PPM readers at about 25/1? Well, she beat Rathsallagh, which also looked the goods.

Neither did another thing all spring.

Rathsallagh came back into training and won two Sandown races in a breeze. Mares events, but easy for her. However, prior to those two wins she had one win from about twenty starts. Now there's a dilemma! She's favourite here, too.

Bangerang Quikpic is every bit as interesting, for different reasons. His trainer Darren Weir is shooting for three successes in four years and Craig Williams is going for the hat trick. The horse looked decidedly unlucky last start and is obviously a very promising sort. If you check the formlines of De Fine Lago, Growl and Playwright you'll see that they can all be compared: a useful punter's tool.

The local hope Assent has drawn way out. That makes it harder still for a horse that doesn't come into the race with the qualifications of the northerners.

So, even if we're not betting, we can always learn by analysing both before and AFTER the race.

Give it a few minutes both sides of its running, if you can.

A Short One and a Question for You...

OK, somebody tell me.

A trainer was rubbed out yesterday for six months.

His horse, a topliner with a recent big win against his name, is worth millions.

The pre-race urine sample revealed a small amount of Altrenogest.

Altrenogest is primarily used to control the sex cycle in females.

However it is also used to settle "excited" males, especially young ones.

It is not a masking drug, nor is it performance-enhancing.

It just helps control sexy males.

I'm blessed if I can see the problem, but the bloke gets six months and the horse is disqualified.

Can someone enlighten me?

To Flex or Not to Flex

As Hamlet didn't say, that is the question.

I've just completed an article for Practical Punting Monthly and while I was researching it I had a sort of change of heart. I was playing with the "flexi" concept, in which the investor can place an amount which is a fraction of a dollar, right down to one cent, on each of a number of combinations. That is to say, he takes a "spread".

I've tended to think it all a bit wishy-washy, but I was doing the maths prior to the article's completion, and I realised that what I had planned to write didn't hold up.

For the average punter, the opportunity to crack a big one is only available via two sources: the flexi bet and your fairy godmother.

The former is a better bet.

Say you want to try for the Big 6 (six winners in six predetermined races... forget the consolation for picking five as it's a pathetic pay).

OK, you are prepared to have $30 or $40 on the Big 6, and treat it as Lotto.

If you have two in each leg you can bet a 50 cent unit for $32.

I'll back myself to get a couple of legs in, but after that no confidence at all.

But give me, say, FOUR chances in each leg.

That's $4000 and a bit for the dollar.

But for a ten cent share it's $40.

A Big 6 often pays $500,000 and more.

Ten per cent of that is $50,000!

And maybe FIVE in each leg?

Fifteen grand.

But for FIVE cents it's $781. A bit rich for most.

So I turned to the Quadrella and wondered about FIVE in each leg.

Five cents' worth is $31.

A quaddie paid $25,000 the other day at a metropolitan meeting.

Five cents' worth of that would be $1250. Nice?

They rarely, if ever, pay less than several hundred dollars,

You need a pay of $640 to cut square. After that you're in profit.

With the chance of thousands.

A lot for a little.

Worth pondering? I think so. I didn't, but I do now.

Wide Barriers? They're Never OK!

On Australia Day I saw a near-perfect ride from a young three kilo claimer at Caulfield.

He rode an in-form chance from a wide draw over 2000 metres (ten furlongs).

Frankly, I thought that apart from the draw it was a certainty. The horse had everything going for it.

Except barrier 13.

The kid got it across, nursing it over 500 or so metres until he could get to the rails, then he set a decent pace. In the final 200 metres he beat off the main threats, but then a lightweight outsider, ironically drawn even wider, but sitting back in comfort and under the control of a senior jockey, cut him down by a neck on the line. It wasn't a just result for such a run and such a balanced ride.

But then, that's how it goes with bad barriers.

I read every so often from one leading journo that "the only thing a bad barrier does is improve the price". It's one of the more amazing racing beliefs, in my view, and represents an opinion held by hopeful punters rather than serious investors.

Of course the bad barrier does more than that. Ask anyone drawn wide in the next Golden Slipper.

The horse I'm referring to here was Bangerang Quikpik, by the way, at Caulfield. Catch the run if you can and draw your own conclusions about the fortunes of the barrier draw.

Some Like It Hot...

...and some do not.

Saturday will be a hell of day, literally, in Sydney. It's predicted at around 40 degrees Celsius.

THAT is hot.

It's always been known that fillies and mares are susceptible to heat. Some of course are very, some are just a bit.

We might learn something by (a) not backing any, and (b) watching how they fare.

I frankly had one in my mind and had shortlisted her for a decent bet.

This weather will take care of that.

I've been bitten too many times before.

There'll always be another day, and I for one will be supporting no females in Sydney tomorrow.

If I get egg on my face, so be it. Long term experience has taught me well.

QUIETLY MAKING IT BIG

I was at Rosehill on Saturday and I met a chap whom I'd written about in PPM for the new February issue. He was pleased I'd kept his identity right out, and wanted me to meet a mate of his.

(Oh, a mate? Well, that's a pal, for any overseas readers).

His mate uses a similar approach but has rigid staking rules:

THREE DOUBLES

ONE TREBLE

No place bets, and one selection per track. No frills there. Easy for all.

Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne.

These tracks can be substituted, of course, according to your preferences.

He bets significant amounts by any standards, but let's say $100 for each double and $50 the treble. Call him Jack.

Jack finished tens of thousands in front in the 2009 year and he likes the kudos of someone knowing. So he will share the idea.

He studies the horses like hell to get there.

But he says his profits have increased tenfold since he can take advantage of the national odds; best TAB/SP, or Top Fluctuation.

Yes he goes to the track, to enjoy himself. But over the years he realised that he had to approach his betting as an industry.

$350 a week,

$18200 a year? Actually, add a nought and you're close.

You see, he bets the doubles and trebles by phone and on the net, prior to leaving home. He takes the Top Fluc because he has found that over the past four years it has been a mile in front of the best TAB for him.

This is because he picks favourites. Yes that's right, favourites.

He gave me the three names on Saturday at one o'clock: Bangerang Quikpik, Power and Glory and Sweepstaking.

Two won at $3.80 and $3.20 (top fluc) and the other one lost horribly.

The winning double paid $1216. The others of course all lost.

On our figures, that's $866 for an outlay of $350. I think you'll find that that is 247% on turnover. And he had ten times that with six different services (they get a bit funny if you take large wins out, he says).

I drove home thinking to myself that you can have a great day at the races watching the races and the betting, if only you have the strength to resist other bets!

It also makes even more of a mockery of the mob who claim that punters don't care if they win. All the ones I know sure do!

MIDWEEKERS - When to Bet and When NOT to Bet

I suppose it depends largely on your selections. If you have a top service, then you go when they go.

Sunday, Monday, etc... what the hell?

BUT if you make your own selections and you choose your own destiny, and you work at a job that doesn't allow you to put in those extra yards to study the form, I'd say put the effort in at the weekend and don't kid yourself.

Two other reasons are strong:

1. The best racing (and therefore the best horses) is at the weekend on all but a very few days of the year.

2. The form is more open and available at the weekend.

I'm not saying don't bet midweek.

Just be careful IF you rely on your own selecting and IF time for serious study is not your friend during the week.

The Argument for Shortness

At Randwick on Saturday there was a horse in the first race that simply stood out.

Yet he started at $3.20, and there was a bit better on offer from various bagmen. He'd blown half a point during the betting and the favourite was getting 6.5 kilos from him.

This fellow had won four good races in a row, prior to the injury that put him out for a full year.

The Craven Plate and the Tattersalls Cup were amongst his kills.

He'd come back on Boxing Day with a splendid second (carrying 64kgs!!!).

His trainer (given to vocal enthusiasm about her horses, it's true) had remarked that he was a seriously good horse and would win. That's a big plug, even for Gai.

The risk was only in his ability to run a race second up. Even so, how could he miss a place?

Of course as we know now it was no contest, even when he missed the start slightly. He was simply in another class to the rest of the field and he showed it.

His name is, as locals know, Lorne Dancer.

I haven't seen many horses around at the moment that look as good as he does. Yes, a seriously good horse.

He paid around $1.70 for the place, so a bet of, say, $20 by $30 would have covered the total outlay and returned around $115.

More than double your money and the only risk was his health.

Well, he had one of the best conditioners in the racing world, a great draw, a small field of ordinaries, and a three kilo heavyweight apprentice of notable ability.

I stood after that race wondering why my entire bank for the day hadn't gone on. Marvellous thing, hindsight, but it's a great teacher.

Or it should be!

Watchful Waiting

This weekend in Queensland they will stage the Magic Millions program. The key races will be one for three year olds and one for the babies.

Sometimes - as happened last year - there will be a major clue to the possible winner of a major two year old group race. Other times, the placegetters will settle into lives of moderate success but never set the world on fire.

What we, as investors, can do is to watch and wait. See what happens without going in big-time with a hopeful guess (read: "a crazy bet").

We might miss a winner. We miss a winner every time we let a race go by without having a bet. And we also miss all the losers. I'm all for knowing as much as I can before I part with my money.

It was hard enough to get without treating it with disrespect. I want to KNOW I have a big show of success. Hoping is not enough.

So, this weekend, when we really DON'T know (let's be honest, now... we don't), maybe we should watch, wait, and make some notes in our diaries about future chances.

Sure, we can have a small investment on something that looks over the odds, but treat the races as learning stages.

For many of their trainers and connections they certainly will be just that.