Welcome to Punters Corner with Roman Koz

If you have ever wondered what a contract involves ask the Victorian TAB. A friend of mine had a sizeable bet on Zarita in the Australian Cup based on a dead track, his opinion that the mare would be perfectly suited on a 21 day break and on her recent good runs as well. The bet was made on Saturday at Fixed Odds at Flemington racetrack. Naturally, after the race he presented his ticket for a refund and that's when it all started. He now has to wait for a decision to be made on Wednesday to firstly see if Shocking is reinstated into the field. Why Shocking is allowed back in the field is a bit of a mystery if the same field that was going to race is to race again with the same barriers. If Shocking is reinstated my mate was told, on the phone thus unofficially, that we would get his money back. Time will tell if that happens!

Now, I believe that once a bet is made a contract is formed between two parties based on prevailing conditions at the time. The bets any punter made on the Australian Cup would have been based on several different criteria depending on how a punter read the race. If the race is to be run ONE WEEK later any numbers of different circumstances could occur such as a dramatic change of track conditions, the extra week away from actually racing and even the jockey situation could be different. It IS a COMPLETELY different race one week later. The TAB should refund all monies, which I believe the corporate bookmakers have done or will do, and simply start again and not hide behind legislation or any other twists to commonsense that masks greed.

While I am on the TAB's back here is another reason why serious punters want to deal with the corporate bookmakers rather than with this greedy bunch of people. The Newmarket was the first leg of the quadrella and subsequently a dividend was paid on all holders of tickets that had Wanted, the winner, as their first leg however the deduction was 20% which is the deduction from all quadrella bets. As only ONE horse is involved why wouldn't the TAB show some commonsense and only deduct the standard 15% (actually a bit less) taken from win only bets seeing as only one horse is involved. Is it greed or a lack of commonsense? Add the two together and you have it.

As a postscript news is through that the TAB has shown commonsense and is refunding the monies bet on the Australian Cup if the punter wishes to cancel their bet.

Just testing a few ideas:

March 13: Flemington: All Each Way

Race 2 No 4 Carbon Trader

Race 4 No 6 Mr Riggs

Race 9 No 9 Solchow

Race 10 No 7 Confidence Reef

March 13: Randwick: Each Way

Race 8 No 5 Bejewelled

If you have ever wondered what a contract involves ask the Victorian TAB. A friend of mine had a sizeable bet on Zarita in the Australian Cup based on a dead track, his opinion that the mare would be perfectly suited on a 21 day break and on her recent good runs as well. The bet was made on Saturday at Fixed Odds at Flemington racetrack. Naturally, after the race he presented his ticket for a refund and that's when it all started. He now has to wait for a decision to be made on Wednesday to firstly see if Shocking is reinstated into the field. Why Shocking is allowed back in the field is a bit of a mystery if the same field that was going to race is to race again with the same barriers. If Shocking is reinstated my mate was told, on the phone thus unofficially, that we would get his money back. Time will tell if that happens!

Now, I believe that once a bet is made a contract is formed between two parties based on prevailing conditions at the time. The bets any punter made on the Australian Cup would have been based on several different criteria depending on how a punter read the race. If the race is to be run ONE WEEK later any numbers of different circumstances could occur such as a dramatic change of track conditions, the extra week away from actually racing and even the jockey situation could be different. It IS a COMPLETELY different race one week later. The TAB should refund all monies, which I believe the corporate bookmakers have done or will do, and simply start again and not hide behind legislation or any other twists to commonsense that masks greed.

While I am on the TAB's back here is another reason why serious punters want to deal with the corporate bookmakers rather than with this greedy bunch of people. The Newmarket was the first leg of the quadrella and subsequently a dividend was paid on all holders of tickets that had Wanted, the winner, as their first leg however the deduction was 20% which is the deduction from all quadrella bets. As only ONE horse is involved why wouldn't the TAB show some commonsense and only deduct the standard 15% (actually a bit less) taken from win only bets seeing as only one horse is involved. Is it greed or a lack of commonsense? Add the two together and you have it.

No staking plan can weather a really bad run of outs without either breaking the bank or the punters heart. For a couple of months I have been testing a target betting plan for small stakes and although there have been some curly moments it has delivered simply because the worst run of outs was sensible. This weekend I ventured up north to Coolangatta, Queensland with three mates, Kibbo, Moonie and Gavin, for a good old fashioned boys weekend. Whereas they sunk enough beer combined to sink three battleships I sipped orange juice, drank tea, coffee and the equivalent of about six stubbies for the whole weekend due to my recent heart issues. As I knew boredom would set in just watching the boys down a few I decided to push my staking plan and bet on horses racing in unchartered territory. "Unchartered territory" is a cute way of saying racetracks I normally do not bet on across the country. With a wallet full of money, an active mind and no beer in my hand what else could I do?

On Friday afternoon I struggled to come to grips with the Friday class horses and lost however a juicy $3.90 place dividend at Moonee Valley night meeting saw me surge back to a slight lead at the end of a frenetic days betting. After my normal Saturday punting, on fields where I actually know the horses, I surged further ahead and was making a delightful 21.7% profit on turnover. I bounced out of bed Sunday with massive anticipation as there were meetings everywhere and my confidence levels were high. After all place betting on well fancied horses is not that big a risk, is it?

By the time I had finished Sunday night at about 7 pm all my profits from the previous two days had disappeared and a cavity had started to appear in my wallet big enough for seven elephants to stampede through. After 28 races, plus some "let's throw in a lazy $10 each and have a go at the trifecta" bets, the statistics showed I had collected a pathetic 11 times with three place dividends at the miserly odds of $1.00, $1.30 and $1.30. Never mind each was showing around $1.60 or better just before the jump: that's what they paid after the race.

Actually, I am exaggerating, as the loss was not that much in the scheme of a weekend away with the boys but it did drive home three gigantic lessons. If you bet on fields where you do not know the relative ability of each runner, how they normally position in a field from certain barriers and where value is difficult, if not impossible, to calculate then you are history. Another lesson learnt (again) is that you just cannot trust dividends, especially in the place pools, to hold up on the lower class meetings. You really are gambling that no one decides to bet a sizeable amount in the last thirty seconds and ruins your dividend.

However, what really mattered was that I had a fantastic weekend with three great mates who love nothing better than to have a beer, a bet and most of all laugh. I do not think I have laughed so much so often in such a short time. I look forward to the next trip wherever and whenever that will be - again I will be tempted for those "throwaway" bets but isn't that part of the fun, too.

What did we learn from Caulfield and Rosehill last Saturday? There were several lessons to be learnt worth storing for the future. The difference 100m makes for some horses was never more evident when Solchow came back from the 1200m she found too far last start to win fairly easily over 1100m in Race 1. It is probably too soon to really can her at 1200m but in future be aware she is best in the 1000m to 1100m range. Race 2 clearly told me Lady Lynette is an extremely classy mare. I knew she was good but her run over an unsuitable 1200m from the widest barrier was exceptional and if she does not win this campaign against mares grade it will be due to bad luck in running or injury.A race like the Doncaster would not be beyond her either.

In Race 3 I learnt that when I bag a horse, like I did for Rightfully Yours, I can still be wrong. There was no way I was backing him 1st up over 1400m at wfa and I was quite confident to lay him on Betfair. Halfway down the straight, when Road To Rock, seemed to have his measure I was about to go the early crow and congratulate myself on an easy pick up when he kicked back/and or Road To Rock ran out of condition and I was suddenly poorer for the opinion. At least I was right with Danzylum. In Race 4 I took on Set For Fame hoping Rostova and Irish Lights would at least make her work but she is good and again I was left lamenting. Race 5 only cemented what we know which is that Denman has the three year old males covered but harking back to Race 4 does he have the measure of Set For Fame in the Australian Guineas? Denman is $1.40 for the race while the filly is $6.00 and $1.71 for the place. As there is genuine chance she could win I suspect the $1.71 for the place is value and for a real blowout the $21 for Hanks seems more than fair. His run was full of merit especially for the AJC Derby which I would think he was set for and an Australian Guineas win is not beyond him.

I just could not back Heart Of Dreams nor could I lay him as I thought he would get exactly the run he actually got from about the 1000m mark but the extra work he did early plus second up at 1800m cost him victory. The query now with him is he able to run 2000m third up? He failed over the distance in the Cox Plate but then again so did a few others with high credentials. Personally, I am going against him. The Blue Diamond Stakes again proved why I seldom have a bet in the race these days though this year I backed Beneteau for the place as I believed he would obtain a wonderful trail off the pace. Just after watching the race I declared he was the best of good things beaten (I am quite one eyed during a race) until I saw the run of Star Witness and clearly the best horse won. However seeing as Star Witness is not running in the Golden Slipper Beneteau will be my selection at this early stage.

One wonders what Starspangledbanner would be like when he runs straight as he wobbled all over the place yet as a 3yo he beat some fairly tough competition. His next run will be in the Newmarket and considering the stable feel he has improvement left this campaign let's hope he handles the straight course at Flemington as well as he handles the turns at Caulfield. I rarely back chronic back markers but I really though Flying Tessie was a top class chance in the last and I am here to tell you she should have strolled in. She was three wide most of the way and even wider on the home turn yet kept coming and coming and my place bet was safe only through her courage.

I laid Rangirangdoo in the Apollo Stakes and an apprentice type ride cost him the money. Straight after the race his diplomatic trainer, Chris Waller, cleared Corey Brown by stating he told the jockey to ride him that way, that is, aggressively around the home turn. That's all very well but did he have to shoot him away so far from home as well 2nd up after a hard 1st up wet track run? Years ago current trainer Pat Hyland used to slip them away on the home turn BUT upon straightening he rested his horse for 100m and then kicked again. This tactic won Pat Hyland many races, especially at Caulfield, and I hope Corey Brown gives Pat a call!! Naturally, even though I got the money, honey I thought Rangirangdoo should have won comfortably. It is back to the drawing board for O'Lonhro who had the sweetest run but gave nought. The run by Palacio De Crystal was amazing for a horse that won a Villers handicap, just, with the majority of the field bunched with 4 lengths or so behind her. If she can produce another run like that at wfa or win a lead up handicap she will be very hard to beat in the Doncaster Handicap.

A top days racing once again proving opinion (Rightfully Yours) can be so wrong at times yet when Lady Luck is on your side (Rangirangdoo) grab it with all the energy you can muster. The next few weeks will provide a smorgasbord of mouth watering races in both Melbourne and Sydney. I will be searching for the acceptances within the hour.

It's amazing how quickly a week passes in our lives. Last Thursday afternoon I listened to my doctor saying, "I would like you to go home and pack a toothbrush and get yourself straight to hospital". Over a period of four or five months I had been experiencing mild chest pain, after exertion, which had worsened and being a form student I deduced the blood flow to my heart was not what it should be. I was correct but the extent of the damage was not apparent until after my angiogram, the process where they send special dye into your heart.

The amazing part of the angiogram process was that I was awake during the procedure and apart from some mild pain from the insertion of the wire the doctors use it was all fairly ho hum. What was not ho hum was the finding that I had a 99% blockage in one artery and about 50% in another and it looked like open heart surgery was on the cards. Naturally, everyone close to me was in mild shock, and initially I was surprised to say the least, but I have been a punter for over forty years and as you all know punters are made of material tougher than tungsten. I have always believed the words from the old Doris Day song, later sung by Normie Rowe, called "Que Sera Sera" which means "whatever will be, will be" and I entered into the thought processes about the future with positivity.

After spending a couple of days of lounging around receiving visitors, family and being monitored with various clamps, blood tests and blood pressure checks a team of doctors decided that stents should be slotted into the worst artery. If that was a problem then cut me they would. Well, I had the stents put in about 12pm on Monday and I was home Tuesday afternoon 1pm in what I can only describe as an astounding turn around. I did spend a miserable twelve hours on my back from the start of the procedure through to the excruciating hours where it was vitally imperative my right leg was not moved at all. At 12.30 a.m. I gingerly stepped out of bed and sat down for an hour and a half, with great relief , and at just after 2a.m. I toddled off for a sleep.

So, I am back home with enough tablets to choke a crocodile and more instructions than the pilot of a jet airliner would receive but you know what: it would really take some doing to upset me right at this moment. As for my future, whatever will be will be, and as for yours can I suggest you ask your doctor for a full check up for cholesterol (mines ok at 5.0 but will need to drop a fraction now) , blood pressure ( I have had high blood pressure for a few years - it's those close photos!!) and an ECG test (I had that) for starters. As an extra ask about how to you can get your arteries checked: it's the check that could save you.

You would have few arguments if you suggested Gai Waterhouse, Peter Snowden and Peter Moody really know how to train winners however there would quite some discussions taking place on how to back their runners. Taking one step backwards to nominations, rather than the final fields and you really find yourself deep into some very tough terrain.

This Saturday, just on metropolitan tracks, Gai Waterhouse has 7 nominations at Randwick. Peter Snowden has 10 at Randwick, 3 at Moonee Valley and 3 at Morphettvile while Peter Moody has 7 at Moonee Valley and 3 at Morphettville. This very formidable trio have nominated 33 horses for the Saturday metropolitan tracks. Now if I cared to add Geelong and Kembla Grange there would be more. While I am at it Danny O'Brien has 11 entered just at Moonee Valley and I didn't even look at David Hayes: adding those two trainers to my original trio racks up over 50 just for the metro tracks.

Should, you the punter, follow the big stables and track every single move they make or should you try some other trainers. Personally, unless you are retired and have all day free, I think the answer is a no brainer. Drop the so called top stables and pick a handful of the so called lesser lights and make your life a tad easier.

Excellent trainers ,Mark Cavanagh (1 at Moonee Valley and 4 at Morphettville) and Mick Price (7 at Moonee Valley) have 12 runners nominated this Saturday while in Sydney, Joseph Pride has 2 nominations and Chris Waller has 3 at Randwick and 1 at Moonee Valley. I would be quite happy to follow that quartet across the country over the course of a years punting. They might not have the numbers game beaten but they sure can train and their runners aren't over bet as often as the original trio.

My suggestion is to select two trainers in each state that know how to train a winner (your choice) and follow their every move starting with the nominations through to track work and trials if that information is available. Once you have a database of their movements there will be times when it will feel like the trainer has sent you a personal email suggesting a wager or two on their runners. Consider this as a strategy for your Autumn campaign.

Is life becoming easier for the punter who likes the classy odds on favourites? So far this autumn it seems like it is as the top notch horses like Black Caviar, Denman and now Typhoon Tracy have resumed their preparation and are undefeated after 4 runs. Classy horses always do well first up, as you would expect, but there is always the niggling doubt about first up runs, especially if the horse is being set for the more prestigious Group 1 races further into their campaigns. I backed Here De Angels to beat Black Caviar when the filly was resuming and on Saturday I had another two small bets against the obvious class runners, Typhoon Tracy and Denman, when I backed Danzylum and Carrara.

The value punters will tell you the "v" word is gospel and overall their argument carries a lot of weight however value has cost me lately. I guess the value punters will suggest betting against the likes of the trio mentioned is a path to betting suicide but is it long term? Over the years I have seen some very short priced top class horses bite the dust when first up and second up early in their campaigns but perhaps I am living too much in the past. Perhaps, because there were less options than seems to be available today, more of the better class runners met each other more often in my early punting days and consequently to win a race you had to be both physically fit and have the ability as well.

However, the wins by the above trio could also highlight they are just simply exceptional horses and I, as the punter, should either leave the race alone or back the short priced favourite and not only enjoy their wins but profit as well. Alas, we punters are always looking for value and if you think a favourite, no matter the class of the animal, might be a fraction soft surely we should take it on, long term.

It will be interesting to see how this trio fare as a betting proposition by the end of their preparations at short odds. At the moment they are killing the value punters but we all know value wins in the long run or does it when betting against true potential champions?

The CF Orr Stakes over 1400m is the usual starting point for the serious Group 1 contenders for the Autumn races in Melbourne and Sydney however it is often a headache race for punters due to the unknown fitness levels of the key players.

Although a win would not totally surprise I am happy to risk Viewed, Zipping and Shocking for the win position simply because they have bigger fish to catch around Australian Cup (Flemington) and BMW Stakes (Randwick) time with a possibility of the Sydney Cup an option as well. Littorio, off a 308 days break, and Sirmione, off 350 days, should also be risked.

The tricky runner is Danzylum who will lead with Typhoon Tracey most likely sitting second. His fitness gives him a flukers chance of kicking away and stealing the race if the autumn stars are being ridden too "softly", for want of another word. This savage culling has the main chances as Sniper's Bullet (very capable first up), Heart Of Dreams (an excellent 2.2L defeat 1st up last campaign at wfa behind Predatory Pricer when not ridden well), Raffaello (good thing beaten in Group 1 Rupert Clarke Stakes 2nd up after winning first up and now trained by G (Jim) Marconi) and the mare Typhoon Tracy (1st up last campaign just grabbed by Predatory Pricer in last 50 metres).

The way the race will be run will favour Typhoon Tracy until the 100m mark but after that fitness issues kick in. There is little doubt she will be trained for the Coolmore Classic and based on that assumption she might just be a fraction underdone this weekend. She is a top class mare but just be careful about the price you take if you decide to back her. To add to the selection problems heavy rain is forecast around Melbourne on Friday: let's hope most of the rain misses Caulfield as a wet track is the last thing this top race needs.

There is no doubt Australia stands out as the country with the best sprinters in the world. In 2005 the Global Sprint Challenge series began as a series of six sprint races run in three countries: Australia (the Lightning Stakes and The Age Classic), England (King's Stand Stakes and Golden Jubilee Stakes) and Japan (Centaur Stakes and Sprinters Stakes). I have to admit when the series first began I was skeptical about Australia's involvement but this was more about me not knowing too much about the overseas sprinters. In Australia we have been used to reading or seeing replays of distance races that are traditional lead up races in the UK for the Melbourne Cup and, of course, our personal involvement in the Japan Cup. I cannot remember seeing any of the major Japanese or British sprint races bar on Sky Channel at odd times and even then I did not know the names of the key runners.

In 2006 the Hong Kong International Sprint was added to the series as was the July Cup (UK) in 2008 to make a grand total of eight. I have no doubt the USA, South Africa, New Zealand and Singapore will eventually join the fray to make this series even more of a challenge to the world's best sprinters. The challenge winners have been Cape Of Good Hope, Takeover Target, Miss Andretti, Apache Cat and Scenic Blast, respectively, from 2005 to 2009, and all things being equal we are in with a chance again after Nicconi's excellent Lightning Stakes win last Saturday.

In the past I have been highly critical of the massive shift whereby Australia is becoming a nation whose horses are sprinters as opposed to stayers as I grew up with the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup history from a young age. The Golden Slipper was always there as was the Blue Diamond, and that was fine, but now with the Magic Millions concept well and truly entrenched in our racing scene we will continue to be dominant in the sprinting world. The breeders are sprint oriented as are the buyers seeking a quick return for their investments and as a punter I do not have to contend with the stop start tactics of the staying races. With the likes of John Singleton and Gerry Harvey pushing for massive prizemoney increases towards sprint races for the Magic Million concept one wonders if one day the prizemoney for a sprint race will outstrip the prizemoney for the Melbourne Cup.

Years ago I would have laughed at such an idea but Australia is now the leading sprinting nation of the world and with the success of the overseas Global Sprint Challenge what is stopping the onslaught. Nothing but some imagination as far as I see it.

In the quest for a winner all punters should extend their thinking and searching wider than their normal parameters. It should go without saying, but it still needs reinforcing, that certain trainers should be closely watched when they venture interstate. Last Saturday followers of Peter Moody received a sensible price about Fairy Gem at Randwick following her good run the start before in Sydney. Many of Peter Moody's interstate runners are going to be in the market just because he trains them such is the status he has amongst punters however I am sure every now and then one really good priced winner is going to come along. It is up to the punter to decide what is a good price and also which trainers to follow.

This weekend Lee Freedman has entered two runners in the 1100m two year old event worth $48,000 to the winner while Gai Waterhouse has Kinnersley in the Tasmanian Derby worth $120,000 to the winner. Darren Weir, Robert Smerdon and Danny O'Brien have runners entered in the Derby as well. The 1200m WFA Fillies & Mares event, worth $60,000 to the winner, sees Luke Oliver, John Moloney, Steve Richards and Lee Freedman with runners.

I have not had time to have a good look at all the interstate runners in Tasmania this weekend but rest assured I will have by Saturday morning once the final fields are finalized. I may be guessing about the ability of a couple of the runners these travelling trainers have running but if the prices available remotely resemble value I am quite prepared to join their venture with a wager. As I stated earlier we punters need to extend our comfort zone in such situations as the trainer is offering us his opinion for free.