Welcome to Punters Corner with Roman Koz

Form wise the key race for the Chelmsford Stakes is the wfa Warwick Stakes run on August 14 as most of the field for the Chelmsford ran in the race. After having watched the replay several times it is difficult not to be impressed by the run of Triple Honour as he sprinted around the field at the 500m mark, naturally ran wide on the home turn and then had the temerity to sprint, and I mean sprint, towards the lead at the 200m. In the final few metres he understandably weakened to just be beaten by stablemate Metal Bender, himself quite a top class horse.

The run by Theseo was all Theseo as he does not know the word defeat while Purple ran home sensationally once she straightened. Running on sweetly was Count Encosta whom I have just backed to win the Caulfield Cup at 65/1 on Betfair based on the run. I always like good wfa runs by handicappers in the lead up to the Group 1 handicaps and he fits the bill quite well. You never know. While I was there I jumped onto Shoot Out for the Caulfield Cup as well (23/1) as his run in the Memsie Stakes, after running three wide all the way, had CCup written all over it.

Sorry about the diversion! The pre post betting for the Chelmsford has Metal Bender at $2.5 (suspect value), Theseo at $3.60 (may need another run but 3/7 2nd up), Triple Honour at $4.60 (fair price) and Purple at $8.50 (just ok pricewise). Count Encosta is at $11.00 (not convinced at that price) and the roughie for the place, Run For Naara, is at $41.00. A price around 1/1 the place Triple Honour strikes me as fair, at this stage, based on a Dead 4 track rating.

Where the race takes on a new dimension is the fact that the Chelmsford is run at the roomy Randwick track whereas the form race was at the tighter Warwick Farm and that certainly adds another dimension to the race.

Down south Love Conquers All tackles Melbournes best but when you have a good look there is only one Melbourne horse realistically able to raise the bar for the locals and that is Doubtful Jack. If he is fit enough, and for a race worth $120,000 to the winner you would like to think he is, he will be there at the finish. At this stage we await for Mr Weather to arrive as the forecast is for plenty of rain and that will favour the mudlark favourite.

Wherever gambling takes place the door to corruption always opens and sadly for the cricket world the door has exploded open. The current allegations of match fixing provide extraordinary reading for a basic non follower of the game, such as myself. While reading an article about this massive problem I could not help wondering how a non follower of horseracing must have pondered over the hysteria involving Betfair a couple of years ago.

At one stage Betfair was being blamed as the beginning of the end for horserace betting, and even the industry, because you could bet on a horse to lose a race. The fact you could already do this by backing every other runner to beat a favourite, the usual "choice" for skullduggery, was seemingly beyond the basic mathematics of Betfairs detractors. We even had the most ridiculous of all statements by Robert Nason, then head of the Victorian TAB, that the Spring carnival should be shut down to stop the advance of Betfair into the Australian betting arena! Holy Batman!

I have always stated from day one that Betfair is the best "product" for the average punter I have ever seen in horseracing in my 40 odd years of involvement. Not only are the odds clearly better but you also have the opportunity to play bookmaker as well. Finally, bookmakers are starting to show serious courage and are betting far more competitively than in the old days when they metaphorically "stuck it up the punters" with their poor percentage figures. The old guard of sheep followers have moved on and the new brigade are taking Betfair on and this is good for the life blood of horseracing, the punter.

It will only be a matter of time before every keen punter will be walking around with Ipads, and the like, logging into Betfair while they stroll around shopping, drinking coffee or even gardening.. All that is stopping the average punter is operational knowledge (not an issue for most) , cost (an issue for most) and confidence in the product (from all reports not a major issue).

One wonders whether the cricket scandal could have been averted if the only betting to take place on the game came from registered corporate bookmakers, the TAB (OTB) venues and Betfair where the word transparency would have to be THE word of their business. From what I have read it seems like the days of the Wild West are the norm for punters in India, Pakistan and other countries in the vicinity and the world cricket authorities need to enact some deep thinking. They could do no worse than seeking the help of Betfair as then any obtuse betting patterns will light up like a Christmas neon sign and scandals such as the current one will be less likely to be instigated.

The toughest problem for a punter is not the actual selections in a race but more so picking the right races. Any punter can make a selection across Australia within virtually seconds based on the flimsy evidence presented at the TAB though I must admit some of their guides are actually providing well written and insightful comments on the chances of each horse.

The idea of picking the right race was once again soldered into my brain for the millionth time when I launched my biggest bet of the day last Saturday on Stanzout for the place at $1.70. I wasn't really sure about a win bet as Here De Angels, Rightfully Yours and Headway were all solid chances for the A position but I was very confident about the place.The previous Saturday I also backed Stanzout at Moonee Valley, but not as heavily, and like this Saturday past he gave the same gutsy effort to provide me with a nice collect.

There is no doubt, well at least for me, that sticking to bets on horses like Stanzout is where the best chance of winning on the punt lays this time of the betting year Yes, there are much better horses racing, as per in the Memsie Stakes, but more often than not it is the bread and butter horses that help keep the wallet from disintegrating during the awkward months of late July, August and September. During this time the real champs are limbering up either winning or running good races but the problem is we are never sure how fit they actually are nor how much improvement they have in them. When it is all said and done we can flounder badly by trying to assess issues, such as fitness and improvement, until each of the better horses has had at least two runs this campaign.

In the meantime an old warhorse like Stanzout is there virtually begging us to back him because all he knows is how to try. His next start is in the Manikato Stakes where the task is much, much tougher than his last two starts but this old punter is going to have a sentimental few dollars for the place. Why not - he is fit, handles all conditions, likes the track and tries.

Doing the form requires decision after decision after decision. The more decisions we make the more likely we can miss something which is why keen punters have all sorts of systematic methods in place to avoid missing vital clues. With all the checks in place quite often the final A selection becomes akin to a guess, especially if the contention is close.

The Golden Rose, the first Group 1 race this racing season, falls into the "guesswork" type of race as there are unknown factors to contend with when doing the form for the event. When I did the form on the race last night I came up with one set of selections and when I tackled it again this afternoon I came up with another set of selections. In the latter set I had Hinchinbrook on top even though he is first up over 1400m whereas in the former set I had Chance Bye on top even though she has no 1400m form.

So what will I do? First thoughts are often best thoughts in life and often enough in the punting world as well therefore I am selecting Chance Bye to get a softish run on the pace just from Panipque whose defeat of Crystal Lily was no fluke with Hinchinbrook not far behind and Crystal Lily about 1.0 to 1.5 length behind my ABC selections.

As always we should look for a roughie and mine is Kudakulari at $34 based on the great run in the 1600m Champagne Stakes last campaign, as long as the track on Saturday is not too wet. As you can see I am still guessing, even with a roughie.

I am betting against the $4.20 favourite Masquerader as he gets back in the field as does Toorak Toff ($5.00) and I am not sure about Crystal Lily 2nd up at 1400m based on what looked like a slightly disappointing 1st up run. Undoubtedly all three could run the trifecta but they are not value at this stage.

As I said earlier some races are akin to a guess and this is clearly one of those races for me.

Horseracing has always been a personal issue for most punters. Most punters initially start the punt to win money but as time goes by the real horseracing enthusiast extracts the magic moments and adds them to their memories of the sport they have fallen in love with. The win by Mustard last week as a 13 year old was one of those moments while this week an amazing chapter in WA racing took place yesterday with the fourth win from four runs this campaign for a horse called King Kool Kat.

Now, winning four races in a row is not an unusual factor in WA racing but what is amazing is that this horse had won one race in his previous fifty starts. Yes, one win from fifty! Yesterday, KKK was favourite and I watched the race wondering if the bubble was about to burst but lo and behold when the challengers came he actually kicked away in the manner of a horse that can win again next start. I am not going to miss watching his next run.

Although the magic moments are highlights I was disappointed to hear the track manager from Moonee Valley on radio this morning basically dismiss the concerns of all observers of yesterdays meeting about the obvious track bias that existed there yesterday. One of horseracings most difficult riddles is to judge if the track really favoured front runners or back markers. Often it is the pace of the race which is actually the culprit but yesterday this was not the case. As punters we deserve better than this type of head in the grass approach but sadly it will not change while denial exists. All we can do is dismiss the runs of the get back types that could not make up ground out wide next time they start and perhaps recoup any lost monies from yesterday.

Racing can be a strange master at times which I felt quite strongly after the win of Metal Bender. On Friday night I backed Metal Bender to win theCox Plate, for a small amount I might add, but come the race I decided Theseo would do me as the 10/1 speculative bet thinking Metal Bender might just find this field too slick over 1400m. You silly boy Roman! As it now stands I need Julia to win the election to make a profit on the day and that bet is not looking too good. There is no doubt about the punt - it is full of moments of joy and frustration but we love it just the same.

Finishing on a positive note the six wins by Gold Coast jockey Daniel Griffin needs to be mentioned. It is quite an amazing effort and is well worth recognizing as another great racing moment.

This week Warwick Farm hosts two races for 3yo's where it is absolutely vital the punter really, really and I will say it again, really keeps their hands in their pocket unless they can find a chance at excellent odds. Year in year out the hearts of punters, owners and trainers are broken with indifferent runs in the early 3yo races with the recent defeats of Crystal Lily and Solar Charged, both odds on, highlighting my concerns.

Solar Charged is again challenging Obsequious in the Silver Shadow and on face value you would have to go for Obsequious but the question you still need to answer is how much improvement does Solar Charge have? The first uppers in the market Chance Bye, Parables,Amber Waltz and More Strawberries may have grown and matured and become forces to be reckoned with this campaign. You won't know for sure until tomorrow night.

The same problems exist in the Up and Coming with Skilled first up challenging Brightexpectations and Decision Time both of whom didn't fire up massively first up. These type of events are suck races for the inexperienced punter not used to the usual annual carnage of the so called newspaper champions.

My advice is to look for a runner at about 10/1 or longer and have a small each way type bet to relieve the tension but do not delve too deep into the wallet. It is all right guessing for small investments but guessing when using the heavy artillery is the first quick step to the punters graveyard. The backers of Crystal Lily and Solar Charged will tell you their impatience has been very costly - don't join them.

It was a rare day on August 14, 2010: I was at a racetrack on a Saturday. These days yours truly is very much an entrenched stay at home punter. However, fellow PPM contributor and good friend, The Optimist, was able to secure a couple of passes and an opportunity to spend time together for the Caulfield "shoot out" was too good to pass up.

Apart from the pleasure of spending a day at the track with T.O. the day presented three other highlights, as far as I was concerned, and one sad moment. The sad moment came with the defeat of Tinamou as we both anchored him as a key player in our days betting. We had every chance and he just wasn't good enough on the day.

The first highlight was the amazing win of the thirteen year old Mustard. The oldest horse I remember winning on the flat, in my 42 years on the punt, was Jester Boy when he won a race at Moonee Valley in the early 1980's, I think, aged twelve. I remember a jumper called Contract wining a steeplechase at thirteen at Flemington and that is about it at that end of the age scale. The connections must be so proud.

The second highlight was the win of Shoot Out whose sprint to win the race looked outstanding. It is the sign of a very good horse that can put a race away in the twinkling of an eye. How far can he go this spring? I certainly believe the WS Cox Plate is there for the grabbing but can he truly be considered a Melbourne Cup chance? Only time will tell but at this stage I believe he might just be too brilliant to handle the slog of the Cup at the end of what will be a fairly long campaign.

However, my ighlight for the day was the win of With Ice in Sydney. If you ever wanted to see courage in a racehorse, and don't we all, find a replay of the win and ask yourself what price you would have laid on Betfair at the 300m mark and then again at the 200m mark. I only backed her for the place yet at the 100m mark I was just hoping for something ahead of her to drop off so I could slot into third! The win really fired me up and it wasn't just the issue of collecting.

It was a day to be remembered.

At around 4.05pm on Saturday afternoon the last batch of disappointed faces will stroll around the mounting yard at Caulfield. The disappointed faces will belong to some of the connection of the enormous number horses having their first start this campaign because it is odds on several of the well fancied runners will flop badly. This is to be expected as the track will be akin to a quagmire if anymore rain falls and most of the best horses in the land prefer dry tracks.

As punters we must step back on Saturday and be brutal with our approach to the day. We must be happy to admit some of the well fancied first uppers might well win, and even win easily, but if we wish to protect our wallets from monetary fallout we must not bet on any of them this weekend. Make a pact with yourself and your friends, if you need support, to adhere to the no bet on first uppers strategy this weekend.

The names Star Witness, Toorak Toff, Master Harry, Crystal Lily, Shaaheq,, Avenue, So You Think, Heart Of Dreams, Predatory Pricer, Irish Lights and Lady Lynette will most likely all be seen again this Spring so what's the hurry to jump in now? Wait and watch their runs and wait until they return to a drier track because there is every chance a couple of these horses will win better races at better odds within a run or two or maybe three or four. Be patient and wait.

If you are going to bet first up make the sure the odds are commensurate to some sort of value. After a look into the first up and wet track ability of all runners in the JJ Liston Stakes I will back two first uppers whom I believe have a chance of toppling the more favoured runners. Neither of the pair are outstanding in this field but they have me thinking their odds are fair and are worth throwing a few dollars at but nothing higher than a low denomination note They are Monaco Consul ($17) and C'Est La Guerre ($21). Both like the sting out of the ground and both are fair to middling first up. I suspect I will be obtaining a better price about both than what is currently on offer and that will do me fine.

Times can be a tricky conveyance in the horseracing game but if you are going to follow them in anyway you must use times on the same day as your guide. At Flemington last Saturday the Group 3 Aurie's Star Handicap was won by Elusive Touch but many punters believed Leica Larrikin should have won the race as the latter was held up at a couple of crucial stages. The sectionals for the last 200m show Elusive Touch was "walking" at 12.68 compared to Leica Larrikins 12.48. Normally 1200m sectionals are better than those at 1400m but if you look at the sectionals for the race won by Moudre you will find his run was excellent, if you believe in times.

Moudre's fastest 200m split was 11.25 from the 400m to the 200m to put the race away in a twinkling of an eye while it was Leica Larrikin's 11.14 between the 600m and the 400m that was the best in that race. On those raw times if Leica Larrikin and Moudre were together at the 500m mark you would expect LL to just win the ensuing next 200m split but the problem normally would be that LL would be further back in the run. In that instance he has to run a faster sectional just to catch up and then an even faster sectional to run past Moudre.

What the times suggest to me is that Moudre and Leica Larrikin are both better than Elusive Touch and for Moudre to run a time just slower than Leica Larrikin, over 1400m ,indicates he is quite a respectable horse. However, when we consider Leica Larrikin was unsuited over 1200m and would be better at 1400m and 1600m you wonder if Leica Larrikin is going to be something special this campaign.

All the two races have shown me, timewise, is that Elusive Touch was lucky to win and next start I will be wary about his chances. However, what times don't always show is the natural improvement lightly raced horses can make, especially under the care of a top trainer like Mark Kavanagh.. All of the above highlights why horseracing analysis is often an educated guess and why, in the finish, you must make sure you get a price equal to or above a fair price, all things considered. Now what that price should be is another part of the conundrum we punters have to solve.

A major part of the punt involves risk. This is not ground breaking news but the punters who availed themselves of the $7.60 available on Betfair for Shoot Out last Saturday felt quite vindicated when they defied all the risk factors to collect the cash. This weekend risk raises its head again when punters have to weigh up the relative chances of Love Conquers All and Danleigh in the 1200m wfa Missile Stakes this Saturday.

Is the pre post price of $1.70 for Love Conquers All worth taking when compared to $4.20 available for Danleigh? Last start LCA defeated Hay List by 0.8L on a slow track in a run where, at the weights, LCA rated 1.5kg better. At his next start Hay List absolutely slaughtered the most promising Pinwheel who went on to win the Ramornie at Gosford his next start. There can be no denying the class of Hay List hence LCA must also be highly rated. There are no gold stars for working that out.

Danleigh was beaten first up last preparation on a heavy track 1.1L by McClintock and 0.1L by Centennial Park in what was described as a pleasing run. Second up over 1400m ,but this time on a good track, he showed his superiority to just beat Rangirangdoo and Palacio De Crystal by 1,2L. Looking through Danleighs heavy track form it would be silly to suggest he cannot win however his best runs under off conditions at this class level have been on slow or better tracks. The heavy 9 suggested for tomorrow is, pardon the pun, a real dampener for Danleighs chances.

If you were backing LCA to win $100 your outlay would be $100/0.7 = $142 and for Danleigh you would be accountable for $100/3.2 = $32. Classwise LCA is rated at 99 while Danleigh is 118 or 19 points or 8.5kg so Danleigh has over 5.5L start class wise. As they straighten I am fairly confident LCA will be 5L in front of Danleigh therefore the class difference is negated, to a certain extent. When you weigh up $142 versus $32 you are talking about quite a difference which, at the prices on offer today, has me suggesting the smaller bet on Danleigh is where the value lies.

At this stage of LCA career I am prepared to suggest $1.70 is not worth the risk however a three lengths win would not surprise me at all. However, if you punt based on what wouldn't surprise you at $1.70 I think long term you will have your monetary back against the wall.