Welcome to Punters Corner with Roman Koz

It is always great to see someone outside the usual suspects like Freedman, Waterhouse, Hayes, Snowden, Cummings and the new boys on the block in Moody and Price win a top race.
This year the Great Eastern Steeplechase at Oakbank over a gruelling 4950m and two dozen jumps was won by Pentacolo, trained by battling trainer Ciaron Maher from Warrnambool

Although Ciaron Maher has won a Group 1 race (you might remember Tears I Cry winning The Emirates at 100/1) he rates this win right up there with the Flemington win due to his love of jumpers. In a few weeks he will attempt to win the coup de grace of jumping races in Australia, the Warrnambool Grand Annual, on his home track with Pentacolo and what a win it would be. I have not been to Warrnambool for several years but I might wander down this year just to be part of the action and if Pentacolo wins I will be part of a piece of romantic Australian horseracing history.

The win of Roman Emperor in the AJC Derby just adds another chapter to the magic of Australian horseracing that will never be forgotten and the chapter I am referring to is called "Bart Cummings". Apart from the late Tommy Smith and Colin Hayes is there another man in this country that has commanded the respect of every punter in the land the way JBC has?. Here he is at the age of 81, where many people would be buying bulk oil for their wheelchairs or just sitting out in the garden contemplating life, at full bore already dreaming about a "bakers dozen" of Melbourne Cups as well as the pending Group 1 AJC Oaks this coming weekend with Allez Wonder and Think Money. May God give him strength: what a guy.

This Saturday the Doncaster Handicap is the best race on the Randwick program and I am hoping like mad the track will be dry. If the track is wet the top liners like All Silent, Whobegotyou, Alamosa and Hot Danish will find it a struggle but due to their class you cannot totally discount them. A wet track will narrow the chances down a fraction with mudlark Vision And Power clearly at the head of the wet trackers. In situations like this we just have to wait

One of the most annoying factors a keen punter has to deal with is that of a track condition you know borders between dead and slow. What do you do when you have a form guide in your hand and you are not sure of the actual track conditions? This sort of doubt causes the beginning of what I call "punters ulcer".

Sometimes you just wish the heavens would either open up and drop a deluge of rain and get it over and done with or that bright sunshine is the order of the day. At the moment it's 5.00 a.m. Friday morning and although I am not sure of the track conditions for Randwick tomorrow I have made a decision. The decision is to work on a slow track because of the uncertainty about forecast rain today, Friday and Saturday. The report from the track manager is one of optimism that the track might be good IF no heavy rain eventuates but track managers are always over optimistic and I am erring on the side of caution.

Just the same I will start my preliminaries for the Group 1 Galaxy (always a good betting value race) and Group 2 Sapphire Stakes (initially there does not seem to be many chances) by circling the form of the main chances as if the track was actually good to dead. This will, at least, give me a flying start if I am caught out. I am not keen on the Derby due to distance concerns and the lack of damp track form so I will give the race a miss and I am prepared to wait until I am sure of the track conditions for the Chairmans Handicap.

Earlier in the week I was not too keen on two races in Perth: one, the open handicap where Forest Frolic headed the weights and two, the WA Derby. Such is life in the punting world that nothing should be set in concrete and while I was in a quandary about Randwick, and had to stall doing the form, I thought I would have a closer look at the two races in Perth I originally wasn't keen about. Lo and behold, after some prelims, I have had second thoughts and will actually make serious selections in those events.

Now, you may be wondering why I am up at 5 a.m Am I that desperate that sleep becomes secondary? Some would say yes but this is not the case. Yesterday I went to Melbourne to have breakfast in Carlton with one of my daughters and lunch with another in Richmond. As usual I had a lovely time however my youngest left her purse with cash and credit cards under the front seat of the car and guess who has to drive down in the next few minutes to drop off the purse? As I have other commitments this morning I have had to go now and be back by 8a.m. Toodles.

Mentally there are fewer greater challenges to the average person than to survive the rigors of what we humans call life especially in the raising of a family. There is, however, another great challenge that awaits those choosing this path and that is to "nut out" a hard horserace. One such race is Race 6, the Victoria Handicap, at Caulfield on Easter Saturday, 2009.

In my initial run through, where I just assess the horses that have been running well recently, I "narrowed" the number of chances to a staggering 15 out of the 19 runners!! Starting with a blank sheet of paper I listed the fifteen with their barriers and simply did what any scientist would do: I went to work on the problem.

My usual attack involves comparing a pair of horses against one another and in this race there were 6 pairs and one treble to work on. When comparing Tears I Cry and Cocinero I had Cocinero as the A selection and Tears I Cry as the B selection. This process is repeated all the way down the list of chances. Eventually I ended up with 7 A selections to whom I applied the same technique thus having 2 pairs and one treble of original A selections to work on.

The massive problem I had with this race was the barrier draw because several of the really strong chances were badly drawn and in situations like this it is really important to construct a speed map. In a speed map the punter attempts to determine which horses usually go forward early, those that amble out and those that literally fall out of the barriers. Now, some horses may go forward normally and sit either on the pace or midfield because they do not have the flying early pace to rocket to the actual lead. If such a horse is drawn wide Lady Luck is going to play a huge part with their chance of winning as most likely they will be caught wide all the way. It is not desirable to be caught wide in a 1400m race at Caulfield.

What happens in the finish is that quite a bit of the formwork you attempt in such a race becomes guesswork however it is fair to call this educated guesswork. Normally you do not want to be playing the guessing game as a punter however in races with the difficulty of the Victoria Handicap the pay off can arrive via better odds than a normally straightforward race offers. At around 3.25 pm this Saturday we will all know if I have been rewarded for the effort.

The weights are printed (all 29 pages) for the Easter weekend and I have to be fairly brutal as to which races I retain for serious consideration. Over long weekends like this there are so many tempting races and although small bets for fun are ok it is really a demanding job to make sure your serious bets are in races where you can be confident that all form lines can be assessed with a minimum of guesswork.

In WA the running of the WA Derby and WA Sires holds no interest for this punter. The issue of distance doubts at this level and the improvement young horses produce during a campaign says "stay out". The two open handicaps comprise of an 1800m event with only six nominations (small field, lack of pace) and a 1000m open that looks quite a good race to work on.

In NSW there are three distance races this Saturday (AJC Derby, Adrian Knox and the open class Chairman's Handicap). For similar reasons as in Perth I will drop the 3yo races and will add the Chairman's, a traditional lead up to the Sydney Cup, to my list. Naturally the Group 1 Galaxy Stakes will be worth considering and of the remaining races I will only bother with the 1200m Sapphire Stakes for the Fillies and Mares. On Monday the Hall Mark Stakes is the only event worth considering. I note El Cambio is entered in both the Hall Mark and the Group 1 Galaxy Stakes on Saturday.

In Victoria the Group 2 Victoria Handicap and 2000m Group 3 Easter Cup are the standout events on Saturday while on Monday at Moonee Valley there are four races that fuel my initial interest but, at this stage, I will shelve them until I see the final fields.

In South Australia the massive two day carnival at Oakbank has arrived. On Saturday we have an open 1100m event which is the best race on the programme for the flat runners but for jumping enthusiasts we have the time honoured Von Doussa Steeplechase where leading Victorian jumps trainer Eric Musgrove has 6 runners entered.

In Queensland I have started seriously studying the form and weights of the locals as in a few short weeks the Group races will be in force and I need to know the strengths and weaknesses of the better class runners. On Saturday there are two Listed races on the programme and although I will not be doing the form on these races I will certainly watch them carefully. On Monday, however, the open event of the day has a bit more grunt to it and at this stage I am keen to add this race to my weekend list.

So, all told over the weekend we have WA (1), NSW (4), SA (1) and QLD (1) for a total of 7 races that I will judge for serious betting.

At this stage I will study the form for those nominations I believe will be the main contenders, make some brief notes and have a preliminary selection order in mind.

Golden Slipper day, 2009 will go down into the history books as the day when ALL the favourites were beaten into submission with not one saluting for the day. The defeats of Faulconbridge ($2.30), Keepin The Dream ($4.60Dr, Doubtes ($4.00), Predatory Pricer ($3.30), Gallica ($4.20), Il Quello Veloce ($4.40), Hot Danish ($2.80), Culminate ($5.00) Viewed ($2.05), All Silent ($3.80), Whobegotyou ($5.00) Real Saga ($4.20), More Joyous ($4.40), Aichi ($3.00), Fighting Fund ($4.80), Racing To Win ($4.20) and Royal Discretion ($3.10) must have brought happiness beyond compare to bookmakers and layers on Betfair. The only runner from a list of 18 runners that started at $5.00 or less was the last winner, Dao Dao.

The silly part about most of the defeats is that they were predictable IF you had any inkling about what causes the defeat of favourites. The issues of first up, distance doubts and especially heavy track concerns would have saved many punters some of their hard earned money.
Although it is difficult to be totally sure I have a strong feeling that if the track was at all dry All Silent would have strolled in with the George Ryder. He had little luck in the run and seemingly did not handle the heavy conditions yet finished a mere 1.1 length from the winner Vision And Power and runner ups Black Piranha and King Mufhasa. With any sort of a clear run in the Doncaster All Silent will be extremely difficult to beat. The other run in the race was that of Largo Lad who received several mentions in the stewards report yet finished 2.8 L from the winner in, at this stage, unsuitable wfa conditions. Time after time good wfa runs equate to equally good runs under handicap conditions especially if any accompanying weight drop is part of the equation.

While I am discussing top performances one has to hand out bouquets to Theseo. I have been a fan and a detractor of this horse depending on the conditions of the races at hand but no longer. This is a genuine fighting horse and I will no longer have any doubts about whatever he runs in and that thought starts with the WS Cox Plate! Time will tell if my faith is repaid but one thing I am sure about - he will give it a go and punters cannot ask for anything more from any horse.

Regulars of this site will soon realize I am not a big fan of 2yo racing especially with the amount of money thrown at races like the Golden Slipper in NSW, the Blue Diamond in Victoria and the Magic Millions in Queensland. All of this money entices owners and trainers to race horses that may be immature in the growth department and consequently they may well end up with horses that develop various stress fractures that inhibit normal development.

Although there are always exceptions the way I feel, as a punter, is that most of the two year olds that are competitive, hence are pushed harder in training and in the actual races, become suspect punting propositions as three year olds and older. I can understand how the owners feel as they are the ones producing the cold, hard cash in the first instance in the sale yard but down the track what do they have left? The lucky ones own the winners of the main two year old races but along the way there are problems for the others.

My cry is like whistling in the wind on top of Mount Everest: I can do it as loud as I like but who is going to climb up and listen? The result is a nation where our sprinters have become competitive world class through the efforts of Choisir, Miss Andretti and Takeover Target but our staying types seem to consistently struggle. I had better lighten off or I will get started on what I think is going to happen in the Melbourne Cup in years to come. I will leave that for another time closer to the race.

In the meantime our focus heads to Rosehill where we have an expected slow track, at least, for the Golden Slipper programme. As usual on wet tracks I literally throw away the form guide and just look for serious wet trackers at or close to the level of todays competition. By this I mean a punter must go beyond just looking at the letter "w " beside the horses name. The questions that must be asked revolve around the class of horse the wet track runs you are checking occurred in. There is little use in accepting Maiden and Class 1 wet track efforts if todays race is an Open Listed or Group event as all that may have happened is that some horse had to win a race where perhaps none of the horses ended up becoming wet trackers themselves.

This is the basis I use for most of the time but racing is not always as dried and cut as that and on occasions we have to take a chance and accept that this horse looks like he is a wet tracker even though the proof is not conclusive.

In the Golden Slipper this sort of chance applies to Real Saga and Rostova who both have 3/3 Dead track wins but no slow or heavy runs at all. The only other horse with consistent dead track form is Our Joan Of Arc with 2 wins from 3 runs and her unplaced slow track run (btn 2.7L) was first up this preparation behind Horizons who beat Melito by 1.0 length. You cannot discount her chance today on a run that may have found her unfit on Feb 14 for a race like the Golden Slipper in early April.

Applying the above wet track thoughts has me entertaining Real Saga, Rostova, Our Joan Of Arc, Horizons and Melito. If you have Melito you must add Marquardt based on the Feb 14 run when finishing 1.0L behind Melito and her excellent run last Saturday.

In Race 1, the Neville Sellwood, the main question to ask is "How does Faulconbridge" handle the wet at this level?

In Race 2, the Tulloch Stakes, we have the problem of 2000m AND a wet track to consider and the same problem occurs in Race 3,the Storm Queen Stakes. Both races are for three year olds and often most have not experienced wet tracks near this level.

Although they have no serious heavy track form several of the fillies and mares in the Queen Of The Turf are quite adept in slow going with Hot Danish, Culminate (oh! my wallet - 29/1 last start but 2nd!!) and Ready To Lift all, amazingly, having 2 from 3.

In the BMW the New Zealnader Mr Tipsy is unbeaten at 5/5 at Dead to Heavy going however what class has he won in? Fiumicino has 2 from 5 in the heavy with one of those winning the AJC Derby from Ambitious General in 2007(not raced since) and the other in a Kembla Grange Maiden. Can these two match the class of Viewed and Theseo?

One of my favourite races on the Sydney calendar is the George Ryder Stakes. Normally it is a beautiful lead up race to the Doncaster plus it always boasts a top class field. This year is no exception with All Silent, Pompeii Ruler, Light Fantastic, King Mufhasa, Alamosa, Sarrera, Mentality and Whobegotyou heading the chances and let me tell you there are a couple of others in the field that could surprise. It's going to be a cracker of a race.

After the Golden Slipper we have two Listed events with Racing To Win and Mr Baritone heading the wet trackers in Race 8 while in Race 9 With A Chance (6 from 6 in the slow!! And 2 heavy track wins) and Mr Baritone (most likely will race in the Scweppervescence Stakes) looking good for the wet as is Royal Discretion with 2 from 3 in the slow.

If there isn't enough action for you in Sydney a quick look at Adelaide shows the 2500m SA Oaks is on (Sparks Fly is the highest average prizemoney earner) while in the 1800m Port Adelaide Guineas on APM Excelltastic and Reprisal lead the charge.

Wait there's more because over in Perth there are two races that look sensational and will have the locals licking their lips in anticipation (actually, that's what I am doing right now). In Race 4 the flying machine Dante's Volonte is attempting to win his 7th straight win on his way to Adelaide where he will contest the traditional lead up to the Goodwood (Set Weights and Penalties, I believe, this year) in the DS McKay later this month. In the wfa Strickland Stakes Marasco is seeking revenge off Tarzi who luckily beat him in the wfa Hyperion Stakes a fortnight ago when Marasco became caught in a zip fastener half way down the straight. Also on the programme is the $250,000 WA Oaks with Delta Gee and Admiring heading the betting. A most interesting runner is Full Moon from the Danny O'Brien camp in Victoria. She is also entered in the SA Oaks!

One of the ways to follow the punt is to hook onto what I call The Travelling Trainer. If you log onto the Australian Racing Board site late Tuesday night or sometime early Wednesday you will be able to access the nominations for races all over Australia. A study of those weights shows there are trainers who enter their horses in two different states and I have even seen three states on rare occasions. Many times you will see dual entries for the one meeting but I must admit to thinking this is far less important than observing a trainer enter horses interstate.

In Victoria Lee Freedman makes it an art form to pillage the Listed two year old and three year old races in South Australia and naturally the odd Group race there has not eluded him either. Now the main problem is at carnival times you will have several of the top trainers travelling interstate as a normal part of their yearly routine however the ones that you need to watch are those that do not do it too often and when they do they are usually very competitive no matter the class level. The likes of Mick Price is a classic example and I suspect Danny O'Brien is one to follow as well. He has won with Valedictum in Sydney and Dubai so respect his travelling visits.

In tomorrows podcast on the PPM site I will provide you with my selections and comments on the Rosehill meeting and selected other races around the country as well as highlighting some the Travelling Trainer movements I feel are worth betting on.

The weights for the Ascot meeting for this Saturday show that the WA champion Marasco is entered for two events. One is a mouth watering challenge to the current WA sprinting star, Dante's Volonte, over 1200m under handicap conditions. Taking a line through the handicappers rating figures both are weighted fairly with Marasco (114) set to carry 60.0 kg and Dante's Volonte (102) weighted at 54.0 kg. Buried between them is the only other chance at the weights in Megatic (107) who is set to carry 56.5 kg. The form shows Megatic first up, at this level, would be a better chance at 1400m but I am not about to dismiss him as a chance.

What adds to the Tuesday night puzzle is that Marasco is entered at wfa in the 1800m Strickland Stakes where on class and form he has only Tarzi to beat. If fit and in form I would have added Forest Frolic to the equation but his run last Saturday was abysmal showing no fight whatsoever and to win he would have to perform the greatest comeback since Lazarus. To yours truly this is going to be a race where I shall need to consider class (Marasco) against my recent love affair with Tarzi whom I have backed, at juicy odds, in his last two wins. Obviously Marasco will be odds on but Tarzi won't be so what will I do?

Before I start stressing too much let's wait and see where Fred Kersley actually runs the champ. If I were him it would be in the Strickland Stakes however he will be second up against an in form fighting Tarzi or will he take on Dante's Volonte? Bring it on at Ascot.!

The acceptances and barrier draw have been posted for the Golden Slipper and the BMW. I will defer on the Slipper until Friday but the BMW looks very much like a rematch between Melbourne Cup winner Viewed and the front running Theseo. I took Theseo on last start and burnt my fingers and a few slips of the folding stuff to learn this horse is better than I first thought. I backed him when he won the Epsom and thought his was a particularly strong fighting run but I must admit to having had doubts about his staying ability at 2000m when he just beat Barbaricus in the LKS McKinnon Stakes. When I backed Niconero in the Australian Cup I felt vindicated but since then I have to acknowledge perhaps it was more the 3rd up over 2000m that made the difference and that the Barbaricus run might have been the effort of a tired horse. Viewed certainly can run the distance but can he give Theseo, who will get a soft lead unless Zarita or Mr Tipsy go forward, a start and a beating at wfa.

Ah, yes: the Sydney carnival is upon us and I cannot wait until I get the form guide Friday morning.

In amongst all the hype about the Rosehill Guineas meeting the races at Broken Hill were almost lost in the ruck except for an occurrence that should be applauded. The 7yo Nozi has been a terrific money spinner for connections having won over $400, 000 in prizemoney with the 2006 Darwin Cup earning this galloper just over $100,000. However yesterday this winner of 11 races added a 12th win when he won the Broken Hill Cup for a record breaking third year in a row. As fate would have it I happened to have Sky Channel on and watched a most courageous effort by the winner. Of all the racing this Saturday it was this virtual non descript event that captured my imagination and you never know he might do it again next year. I hope I remember to watch the race if he does.
The Rosehill Guineas produced a pearler with the favourite Metal Bender getting up in the last bound at $4.40 thus alleviating some of the long term losses favourites have racked up in the last twenty years in this event. It is worth noting the second favourites were Tobique and Rock Kingdom at $4.60 with the third favourite Caymans at $4.80!
I was quite impressed with the winner as he is a real fighter as was Divine Rebel in her event and what about Solo Flyer. To my mind he was ridden poorly yet when I expected him to weaken he became stronger and at odds is worth serious consideration for the Doncaster.

All racing attention shifts to Rosehill for the running of the 2000m Group 1 Rosehill Guineas and an accompanying set of lesser Group races. I am not a great fan of betting in the Rosehill Guineas because over the years it has been too much of a mixed bag results wise. Since 1989 four outright favourites and one equal 2/1 favourite have won the race returning the punters a loss of approximately 7 units or about 35% loss on turnover. Those sort of figures simply suggest "give the race a miss". When it is all said and done punters are looking for winners and finding it in the Rosehill Guineas has not been an easy chore.
I much prefer the 1500m Group 2 Ajax Stakes as a betting proposition as the form lines around Solo Flyer, Chasm, Playwright and Marching are calculable. The only horses normally with a chance: Reigning To Win, Kingda Ka and All American are a fraction more difficult to assess for a range of reasons but common sense decrees you favour your chances of the winner coming from the quartet mentioned. It is a tough race in that there is nothing between Solo Flyer and Chasm (hampered) on their Newcastle quinella and Playwright has to navigate his first NSW visit around the sometimes tricky Rosehill. Marching has enormous ability but just seems to struggle to find the winning post consistently enough. At this stage I favour Chasm but I will be guided by the prices when I bet and whichever seems the best value will rceive my attention.
Interesting to note disgraced bookmaker Simon Beasley has decided to retire from bookmaking. He is in a fair bit of trouble after some fairly stupid decisions where over 1400 bets were not recorded correctly and it looks like he is jumping before he is legally pushed. He has the same opinion as yours truly has had for quite sometime: there is very little reason for the punters to go to the track with all the cheaper home benefits and all sorts of betting options available via a few strokes of a keyboard. It's my opinion that within the next twenty years all that will be left of the bookmaker ring will be a handful of corporate bookmakers (five or six) for most of the year and around carnival times there will be extra recruits assembled but I don't think it will number too many. Horseracing has some sad times coming ahead.

As the racing world deals with the mind numbing issue of padded whips I really wonder about priorities. Yes, some horses need persuading with a whip but overall the form will work itself out and the same number of favourites will win as they always have done. A greater priority for the racing world is to arrest the issue of declining numbers at the racetrack. For too long officials have been ducking and weaving by blaming the proliferation of other outlets as an excuse for the declining numbers but none, as far as I have seen, have not initiated new strategies to change the decline.

Normally on a Thursday night I am deep into the formguide but last night I decided to support my AFL football team Richmond in what was billed as a match extraordinaire. An excellent pizza plus a drop of Bundy and coke had me settled and ready. Boy, what an insipid performance and I am disgusted from watching some players who cannot even kick a football straight over a distance of fifteen metres and even worse who lack the courage to go in for a hardball. Very, very disappointing and blaming the coach is not the problem. Another year of frustration ahead by the looks of it.

Here I am on Friday morning a little behind the eight ball but I have at least decided which races to tackle. At Rosehill Race 6, the Hyland Colours Ajax Stakes, and Race 9, the Cleanevent Birthday Card Stakes look the two races I see as formful enough to seek a bet from. The main race, the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas, is a race I always steer clear of due to the distance issue for most of the field. It is hard enough picking a winner normally without guessing over distance and class issues. I like races where there is a clear distinction in class for starters and open class events certainly provide this.In Melbourne Race 6, the Open Listed 1400m event fits the bill while in Perth Races 3 and 8 have been ticked by yours truly for serious consideration. I am not enthused by South Australian form, as a rule, so will steer clear while in Queensland I am just starting to watch the form a bit more seriously as their carnival will be upon us in a few weeks.
Last week I had races coming out of my ears but it looks like this week life on the form guide is going to be a fraction less stressful Oh, yes: there is a meeting at Moonee Valley tonight. Buried within what is normally fairly ordinary racing is a $100,000 event for the 3000m plodders and I must say I applaud the MV people for providing this amount of money for this type of horse. It gives hope for the owners of distance horses that can not match the Group level. The class horse of the meeting is Lucky Secret and I will be having a good look at this race. It is well worth noticing that Danny Brereton is aboard Lucky Secret and tomorrow he rides three horses in Perth for top trainer Frank Maynard.

Now, off to the form guide.