Welcome to Punters Corner with Roman Koz

In some years during the winter months in Brisbane horses win or race well that are certain to do well in the Spring and we should not dismiss their efforts as just off season racing. Yesterday, at Eagle Farm, there were three winners and one absolute certainty beaten that screamed , "Back me in the Spring because I am good". The wins came from Set For Fame, Pressday and Catapulted and even a blind person would have seen what a good thing beaten Latin News was in his race. Personally, the wins of the three cost me as I laid Pressday (wide barrier, first 1400m run) and Catapulted (see Friday's blog) but backed Set For Fame after laying Wealth Princess as well. I initially laid Latin News ($2.10 seemed too short) but after thinking about the win of Set For Fame and the form line through the wfa win by Albert The Fat I chickened out and ended up backing him to basically stay out of the race.

If that quartet do not make me money this Spring I shall be most surprised. Considering natural improvement and the trainers (Peter Moody, Chris Waller, Mark Kavanagh and a guy named Bart Cummings ) you would like to think one of them, or perhaps even all of them, will win a Group race. When this carnival finishes on Ipswich Cup/Eyeliner Stakes day I shall construct a stable of Spring horses to follow which will include Rothesay, Stryker and Border Rebel as well.

Down south at Flemington I thought the win of Sunday Rose was excellent. After receiving a fair bit of buffering in the run she eased out, sauntered to the lead and it was all over with 100m to go. I am not sure where she is going to race next but if she heads to Queensland I will add her to my list of black bookers. Normally as soon as Bart Cummings wins with a filly the word "Oaks" springs to every punters lips but being by Exceed And Excel and the dam being sired by Marscay it seems the 1600m Set Weights races would be the right maximum distance . Hell, what am I saying: the master JB Cummings trains her so anything is possible!

As you can tell I am getting excited about the Spring already and it is still months away. It is the anticipation of it all which excites a racing nut like myself and that is why my mind will always be bright and alert - sadly, if only the rest of my body could keep up.

One racing publications price assessment for Catapulted in Race 8 at Eagle Farm this weekend was an amazing $7.50 and I am sure all punters would have run barefooted over broken glass to try and get that price. Naturally, that was way out but when I looked this morning I nearly flipped over the $1.90 being offered. On Thursday night I diddled and fiddled with my price assessments for the race and eventually I settled on $4.50 after even considering $5.50. In last weeks blog I made the point of trying to identify false favourites by brutally assessing their chances based on some "rules" I set. Another factor to consider is whether the favourite you are happy to call a true favourite is actually value at the price.

On all basic factors Catapulted is a good A selection as he has drawn well, is trained by a top trainer and is a last start easy winner however the credentials of a few other runners in the race are quite strong in perhaps better class races than what Catapulted has contested. I have the proven open company horses The Jackal, Border Rebel, and Ahdashim as definite chances as well as the class risers Stryker and Graceful Anna.

The question to ask is, "Could Velocitea and Very Discreet win this race?". Both finished around Catapulted in the Goodwood. As Bert Bryant used to say, "The answer is a pineapple" but I do know one thing: if they ran they would not be as short as Catapulted or even close. Catapulted beat Eight Bells easily last start, a horse suspect in a truly run 1200m race , and that horse ran fourth last week, albeit by what I thought a fairly impatient ride. Eight Bells would be 15/1 in this field, if not longer. I am not saying Catapulted cannot win, as his potential is enormous, but if racing was all about just backing winners and disregarding risk versus returns I would say back him. At $1.90, regardless of potential, he is not value which means I am going to lay him.

As for a bet I will be looking towards my stable horses The Jackal and Stryker at their current prices. All told the most interesting race for the day.

I will not be alone in stating Kutchinsky is a Caulfield Cup - Melbourne Cup prospect after one of the most amazing finishes I have ever seen from a budding stayer. Normally horses running home strongly are not my type of horse as often their runs are an optical illusion. Horses normally do not get faster at the end of races, as a study of sectionals generally shows, and it is really the leaders tiring quickly which flatters the run on horses. I don't know the sectionals Kutchinsky ran last Saturday but I have the feeling The Hombre is a fair sort of stayer yet Kutchinsky gave him a decent start and a beating. It was some effort and the finishing burst reminded me, dare I say it, of the type of finish Makybe Diva could produce over ground.

No sooner had we witnessed Kutchinsky's great effort than we were treated to the awesome win by the mighty mare Hot Danish. Gee whizz, if only all the horse we backed could run as consistently. If all things are equal we will see her racing in Melbourne in the Spring: let's hope so.

I will add Love Conquers All and Bejewelled to my list of horses to follow. I know the field had a number of runners that failed to handle the heavy conditions, notably Pinwheel, but the way LCA accelerated in the last 100m signaled a horse of above average ability. Bejewelled only just fell in but I thought the run was a power packed effort and more wins are on the cards.

My list stands at The Jackal, Phelan Ready, Stryker, Graceful Anna, Gold Water, Khas Kura, Pinwheel, Love Conquers All and Bejewelled. Both Pinwheel and Khas Kura did not seem to handle the heavy conditions last Saturday while Phelan Ready seemed disappointing on face value behind Hot Danish.

You might remember a week ago plus two days I discussed how much I loved some of the old warriors of horseracing and I highlighted Jungle Ruler and Sir Slick. Well, Jungle Ruler, one of the two mentioned, has just saluted at $10 at Cranbourne carrying 60.5kg and he slaughtered them just to kick the mud well and truly into their faces. It was start 39 at the distance for win ten and 14 wins all told at start number 70. Don't you just love them! Just for the record the 9yo Riceman won the previous race at $13. I am not going to look at what the running double paid - I am too scared.

So what do you do with Sir Slick? Perhaps just keep backing him in NZ as he just does not fire here but maybe I am wrong. What about the Brisbane Cup and Ipswich Cup? Hell, it's only a bit of fun and what's a few bucks. Ditto Jungle Ruler.

In my Friday blog I discussed the issue of trying to find a true favourite, using the $3.00 or less pre post favourites in "The Sportsman", and I listed a range of blockers I use to get rid of the deadwood. The aftermath shows there were 14 runners, after scratchings, with 4 winners coming from those I eliminated. There is one thing you must take into your stride when "bagging" favourites: some of them are going to win.

In the finish you have to look at how you would have gone with the horses you kept and what happened to those eliminated. As it turned out I had no true favourites to back due to the track at Morphettville becoming worse than than the Dead 4 I was prepared to accept. The prices of those I eliminated who lost were $4.00 Temple Of Doom (Qld), $7.50 Danza Doll, $3.30 Pinwheel, $7.00 Informality (NSW), $1.80 Tropic Thunder, $1.80 Bombay Sling (SA) and in WA $1.65 Mabel Grace, $2.70 Pago Rock, $3.80 Liquidation, $3.30 Galaxy Queen. The winners were Mascareri $3.40 (NSW), $1.75 Our Baby Bonus, $3.00 Beyond Pardon (Vic) and $2.20 All About Annie (SA).

If you laid all of the losers on Betfair to lose $100 you would have won about $520 and lost about $400 on the winners based on the SP figures but in all fairness you would have needed to lay better prices than SP on the losers. Time will tell if the reasons for elimination are a stepping stone towards laying the risky conveyances as one swallow does not make a spring but it is worth drawing up a list yourself for future reference. If the list proves itself isn't it easier to make money by laying than trying to find the winner amongst the others.

It is official: I am seeking help about my punting. Before you all go "What!" just be aware there is a slight twist to my first sentence. There is no way I am giving up on the punt but I have to admit to being battered around the old head for quite a few months, since last Spring actually, with my attempts to make a few dollars out of Trifectas and First Fours. Although I am by no means a big bettor the experimenting with different approaches is adding up and is showing me losing for the year even though my win and especially place bets as well as laying horses on Betfair are doing fine. I am thinking about starting an Exotics Anonymous group where other battered punters can call one another in times of temptation.

I guess the first thing I need to say is that I have been trying all sorts of methods of attack on both the Trifectas and First Fours and the toughest part has been deciding which approach is the best. I have tinkered with taking ABCD x ABCDEF x ABCDEFGH in big fields for trifectas but,of course,that's $120 at a pop and I am not outlaying that much when experimenting. I have found this is a tough way to go as you must get the winner in your first four, the second placegetter in your first six and third position in your top eight. By applying this in fields of 12 or less you will strike collects but the raw part of the pineapple shows the dividends need to pay something like $600 at least and with favourites or second favourites placing fairly regularly the chances of those dividends are slim. With this approach I have found you need to have the favourite and second favourite out of the A position and try for a healthy 7/1 or 8/1 plus winner but getting those good price winners is the task that needs defeating. In fields of 13 plus I think a fifth horse needs to be added to the A position thus seven for second and nine for third which totals 5x6x7 or $210 worth. Naturally, a Flexibet option needs to be incorporated.

When you try the First Fours with this approach is when you really start to squeeze the percentages. How many do you take for fourth? If we adhere to the 4x6x8 approach for the trifectas it seems 4x6x8x10 makes sense for the First Fours but at 4x5x6x7 we get $840 worth of combinations per try. In field sizes of 13 plus, by adding the extra horses, the calculation is ABCDE x ABCDEFG x ABCDEFGHI x ABCDEFGHIJK which works out at 5x6x7x9 or $1890 worth of combinations. If you decide you want 5% of the dividend for the Trifectas your bet will be $6 (12 runners or less) and $11 (13 runners or more) which is fine but for the First Fours we find 5% will be $840/20 = $42 and $1890/20 = $95. So far my experience, on the tougher races, has been that the First Four dividend will be about 7 times the Trifecta dividend but that depends on a sensible priced runner grabbing fourth spot.

On that rough basis if I divided my outlay on the First Fours by 7 the minimum bet on the 12 runners or less field would be $9 and at 13 runners or more it has to be $19 remembering that 1% is the lowest figure the TAB allows with it's Flexibet option. The issue is one of a) getting the damn collect and b) having it return value.Well,I have been betting similar amounts or more and my frustration point is just about there. Only recently I have been tinkering with the Roving Banker option (I think Americans call this "wheeling") where all my choice has to do is finish the first three or four and the other numbers fill the placings and fourth spot for the First Fours. I believe this is the way to go, at the moment, as it does give you the chance of striking the good priced winner and by having your value selection in the money as well a good dividend is on the cards.

Alas, yesterday, at Doomben, I risked Ortensia and Whobegotyou for the obvious reasons of their get back style and 10% of a nice $4000+ First Four went astray when I wheeled my A selection, Hot Danish, but left out the runnerup. Now if I had slipped Whobegotyou into contention (not hard to do)I would have received about 6/1 the place and fourth position as well for Hot Danish. In the long run I cannot lose with receiving odds like that about an 1/1 chance ($2.50 on Betfair eased some of the pain) for the place even allowing for the times my selection would run unplaced and I would miss out on the other needed positions. Food for thought, isn't it.

You know something. Give me to the end of the year with the wheeling option and put the Exotics Anonymous group on hold. There was a song years ago that had the words "they're coming to take me away ha ha ha ha" which may become my signature song.

In the podcast I posted today I made mention of backing true favourites but as the focus of the podcast was more on percentages than reasons I thought I would provide some examples of how to find a true favourite. Using "The Sportsman" pre post market as my guide over the five main metropolitan meetings there were 16 pre post favourites quoted at $3.00 or less. If you do not have this paper available use any other market as most will have the same horses on top but if not over the year the differences will balance out. You have to draw a line in the sand and I set it at 2/1 ($3.00).

I have been quite brutal with the reasons I have used to eliminate horses from the list of sixteen. The elimination reasons have been 21 days or longer since raced, females versus males, limit weight horses (there weren't any this week), distance (subjective with a couple of horses), track conditions (as of this afternoon) and the ability to either lead or run on the pace (subjective again). In the finish I eliminated 14 of the 16 originals and have been left with two runners at Morphettville on an assumed dead track. The two horse are Tropic Thunder in Race 1 and Bombay Sling in Race 3. If I wanted to be really tough I could have deleted Bombay Sling as he has raced midfield on a couple of occasions but what saved him was that those races were over 1400m or less. In his only 1600m race he was third to the turn and it is only fair I use this race as it is also the race that passed the distance clause.

I might add I will accept a dead track to be a good track as long as the rating is a Dead 4, the current Morphettville rating. However, showers are forecast and if a Dead 5 or worse is posted I will drop both runners. It could be argued Bombay Sling was only beaten 0.8L on a heavy track at Warrnambool two runs ago but my subjective assessment decrees that race was over 1300m thus todays extra 500m causes me concerns. Yes, I am being tough but why shouldn't I be?

Last Saturday I was hoping two of my "warrior" favourites, Sir Slick and Jungle Ruler, could do the job but, alas, it was not to be. Now don't can them for both have the habit of bobbing up just when you have given up on them. Speaking about old "warriors" it was a pleasure to finally meet our own "The Optimist" for a casual 1.5 hour chat about horses, horses and horses last week opposite the lovely Lake MacQuarie. I can now vouch the photo you see in PPM is not touched up in anyway and despite both of us bemoaning our advancing years T.O. clearly has the advantage of good looks over my good self. We both agreed life for the value punter was once a valued 9/4 chance but these days, due to the intense media scrutiny, the odds had dropped to around 6/4 and you really had to find the gaps in the market before declaring, "I have found value". Nevertheless, we keep on doing our best.

One way of overcoming the weekly worry of value is to let value work itself out by compiling a list of horses to follow as I have been compiling in the last few weeks and set a minimum acceptable price. So far, I have had four starters from my short list for 1 win (Stryker) and two seconds (The Jackal, Gold Water) and at the $9.00 best fluctuation for Stryker I am mathematically in front quite a nice distance. If I had done the form on the race Stryker won I may well have had Graceful Anna on top and missed an 8/1 winner, especially considering Stryker's wide barrier.. I have to say the $2.25 about Graceful Anna was a bit on the tight side, just the same. Where, I believe, you can get value on each way chances, such as Stryker, is by actually not doing the form and just backing them as long as your minimum price is available. If you are good enough to judge a worthwhile performance and the future price is sensible you have a good chance of turning an overall profit. One extra factor to remember: back yourstable runners in EVERY race it starts in no matter the class. Where else do you think the 12/1 plus winners normally come from that help you win with this approach? I remember all so clearly a punting mate of mine forming a stable some years ago only to leave out two 33/1 plus winners within a month (one beat Sunline in the wet: trained by John Size? - just cannot remember its name) he believed were outclassed on the day. The lesson learned was expensive but he never did it again. Make sure you don't.

I must admit to having a real soft spot for the old warriors of horseracing that front up week after week trying their best to win a race for their owners and us punters. Within the space of about fifteen minutes today two warriors will be competing in two different states. One is the amazing Sir Slick who faces the starters button for start 121 in the Wfa Doomben Cup and a win today sees win 23 enter his record and a placing would notch up placing number 56. In an era where the pressure on the legs of all runners is intense, to say the least, you have to wonder if a horse like Sir Slick is not made of iron instead of flesh and blood. As Sir Slick cannot talk he is unable to convey what must be his mentally tough attitude but I bet he has it. It is rumoured in NZ that Sir Slick no longer needs to be floated to the races because he drives himself to the track!! That is how revered he is in NZ - he is considered quite a package and a half.

His chances of beating Metal Bender and Road To Rock home are rough but you never know and yours truly will give him quite a cheer if he can upset the two favourites. Further down south Jungle Ruler faces the starter at Caulfield for only?! the sixty nineth time (he has 13 wins to his credit)but what amazed me was that he has had 38 runs over the 1400m distance of todays race (9 wins) which all things considered is a really remarkable effort. Jungle Ruler is a really live chance in this race and a win would just add another notch to his fine career, so far. I wonder just how many more starts he will have before retirement but he is only a six year old so another three seasons is not out of the question. I will be a most interested viewer this afternoon: join in and if possible give them both a cheer if they look any hope at all at the 100m mark.

This weekend I felt the runs of Khas Kura and Pinwheel in Sydney were worthy of listing for the future. Both had to work during their respective races and fought on tenaciously to go down but with honour. A visit to Brisbane would not surprise. There has only been one runner for my stable with The Jackal running an excellent second to the most promising Border Rebel - certainly no disgrace to be runner up to that horse. The list stands at
The Jackal Phelan Ready Stryker Graceful Anna Gold Water Khas Kura Pinwheel

The pace should increase for my list over the next few weeks.

I was most interested to read Neil Evans column in "The Sportsman" where he stated that "three lengths can just cover the field... unless you have a real star or two" as far as Group races are concerned. I know respected form analyst Steve Moran has also said much the same thing for quite some time. Neil adds, "the days of picket fencing in good company are long gone" and apart from the likes of standouts like Typhoon Tracy one has to admit both writers have quite a good case. Neil Evans quite rightly feels the lesser class races offer the punter a better chance of winning due to the fields containing two or three genuine winning chances. As a keen punter on Perth races I know, due to the restricted horse population, that several times per year there are horses that can string a trio of wins together, and on occasions even more, when going through the grades. This rarely happens in the Eastern states.

However, on the other side of the punting coin I have a punting mate who has had magnificent set of profit figures by just betting in Group 1 races over the last five years. His opinion is that all the runners are at their peak for their respective Grand Finals and that the best horses win enough times at good odds to make just concentrating on Group 1 races his future punting path. He now knows he can still lose on one season or maybe even two as we are talking about just under 70 Group 1 races per year but after 300 odds races and a nice profit he is feeling very confident. All this goes to prove is that there are two roads punters can travel on and in the long run their individual performance figures tell their own tale.