Welcome to Punters Corner with Roman Koz

My first recollection of overseas racing was when UK Grand National champion Red Rum beat the gallant Australian Crisp in the 1973 GN. A group of us cheered and cheered for Crisp but alas it was not be and when we saw the replay we just marveled at the effort of Crisp. A few years later we really knew how good the run was after Red Rum retired as Crisp was beaten by a genuine champion. In the years since quite a few Australian horses have travelled overseas and have made Australians proud of our homegrown product matching it on the world stage. The NZ mare Horlicks and Australian champion Better Loosen Up thrilled us with wins in the Japan Cup and in recent times the likes of Choisir and Takeover Target have shown the world what sort of sprinters we can produce. We haven't been too bad in the jumps arena as shown by the exploits of Karasi in Japan and perhaps very shortly we may make our mark in the UK

The Australian Grand Annual winner, Ginolad, is now in the stable of UK trainer Venetia Williams, who trained last years UK Grand National Steeplechase winner Mon Mine, and perhaps he might carry the next banner for Australia. Years ago a horse like Ginolad would have simply stayed in Australia and that would have been that but the tyranny of distance is no longer such a major issue. To add more Australian flavour to the UK jumps scene Ms Williams will takeover one of our best jumpers , Pentiffic, after he has raced in Japan under the care of Fran Houlahan.

At 2am on Saturday morning Australian time I decided to watch two outstanding UK jumpers, Kauto Star (16 from 23)and Denman (10 from 14), attempt the amazing feat of running the quinella for the third time in the prestigious 5310m Cheltenham Gold Cup as I nursed a cup of hot tea hoping to ease the pain of a bad case of flu/head cold. As I watched this race my thoughts flashed through how the racing world, and I mean world, has gradually become part of Australian racing. I was also surprised to note I was actually interested in the result which is something I would not have thought possible a few years ago. I must be mellowing.

Since the introduction of the "you cannot whip a horse any more than X times at spots Y or any other letter" during a race I have been waiting for the inevitable to happen. After the Australian Cup stewards fined the winning jockey Nicholas Hall $1000 for excessive use of the whip however the fine was for whipping indiscretions prior to the last 100m (there is unlimited whip usage in the last 100m).

It seems the owners of the runnerup, Sirmione, were unaware they could have lodged a protest against the winner Zipping They are livid the stewards did not alert them to the possibility of protesting, as part of their job as stewards, and I am assuming the comments attributed to Nicholas Hall that he would not have won the race without excessive whipping would have really caused the owners to go on the warpath.

The defence from chief steward, Terry Bailey, that he thought Sirmione had his chance to win is not the point. The point is a jockey has won a Group 1 race by flounting the rules he was well aware of , due to previous fines, and has won a race unfairly which must be grounds for protest. The stewards should have fired in their own protest as a matter of due course and allowed the owners of the runnerup to plead their case. Terry Bailey should have made the statement attributed to him AFTER considering all arguments for and against in conjunction with his panel as then he would have been seen to at least provide an opportunity for Sirmione's connections to gain a fairer chance of collecting first prize than was given during the running of the race.

The issue is one of all runners being provided with an equal chance of winning and it seems to me that Sirmione has not been provided with an equal chance. The difference in prizemoney is $420,000 plus a $5000 trophy plus the honour of winning the race and connections are considering their options. If they do not protest officially that is their choice but you can bet the next group of owners may not be as gracious. How will it look if this happens in the Spring and God forbid what if it is the Melbourne Cup? Sadly, this should have all been thought out beforehand officially (I know I have read about the possibility) and clear guidelines set out by the stewards re protests over excessive whip use. However it seems it hasn't been and here we have a situation that racing does not need all because of the need to appease a minority group in the first place.

Both Denman and Heart Of Dreams have gone from chocolates to boiled lollies this campaign and both need to become reinvented horses. Although there were excuses made for Denman the bottom line isshows he was terribly disappointing for a horse of his touted ability in Saturdays Australia Guineas. Yes, he did miss the start and was pushed forward to sit outside the leader but his journey towards the lead was not a punishing effort. Yes, he was tuned for the previous Saturday but again is that an excuse for such a lacklustre effort. Surely, the Peter Snowden stable know how freshen up a horse for a one week delay and the 21 days between runs should not have been such a great worry either.

Heart Of Dreams simply cannot run out a strong 2000m as in Saturdays Australian Cup he was the horse you wanted to be on as far away from the finishing line as the 1600m mark. I could not make up my mind whether to back him for the place or risk him. I went for the latter and I was spitting chips at the home turn because all he had to do was provide a quick sprint and I felt the place bet would have been a formality. Halfway down the running I was happy as he was weakening, then he kicked for a few strides and I started to curse and then he weakened again to allow the outclassed Moatize to beat him for third.

As a punter, based on Saturdays runs, I need to forget both horses as betting propositions BUT these are two top class horses and a change of tack could find them winning at good odds in races not perhaps first considered as major goals. Denman is approximately $17 for the Doncaster and who is going to be emphatic and say he cannot win a race where the pace will be on early and where he may drop back early and steam home. Heart Of Dreams is not in the Doncaster, looking at Vic TAB odds for the race, which surprises me actually, so will the stable rest him and perhaps target Brisbane for a run or two or just pull the plug and wait for the Spring? Time will tell.

Both horses need reinventing as racehorses otherwise history will show them as potential stars that did not quite make the grade. That would be a massive loss to the horseracing world and one hopes both stables find the keys to future success for both horses.

If you have ever wondered what a contract involves ask the Victorian TAB. A friend of mine had a sizeable bet on Zarita in the Australian Cup based on a dead track, his opinion that the mare would be perfectly suited on a 21 day break and on her recent good runs as well. The bet was made on Saturday at Fixed Odds at Flemington racetrack. Naturally, after the race he presented his ticket for a refund and that's when it all started. He now has to wait for a decision to be made on Wednesday to firstly see if Shocking is reinstated into the field. Why Shocking is allowed back in the field is a bit of a mystery if the same field that was going to race is to race again with the same barriers. If Shocking is reinstated my mate was told, on the phone thus unofficially, that we would get his money back. Time will tell if that happens!

Now, I believe that once a bet is made a contract is formed between two parties based on prevailing conditions at the time. The bets any punter made on the Australian Cup would have been based on several different criteria depending on how a punter read the race. If the race is to be run ONE WEEK later any numbers of different circumstances could occur such as a dramatic change of track conditions, the extra week away from actually racing and even the jockey situation could be different. It IS a COMPLETELY different race one week later. The TAB should refund all monies, which I believe the corporate bookmakers have done or will do, and simply start again and not hide behind legislation or any other twists to commonsense that masks greed.

While I am on the TAB's back here is another reason why serious punters want to deal with the corporate bookmakers rather than with this greedy bunch of people. The Newmarket was the first leg of the quadrella and subsequently a dividend was paid on all holders of tickets that had Wanted, the winner, as their first leg however the deduction was 20% which is the deduction from all quadrella bets. As only ONE horse is involved why wouldn't the TAB show some commonsense and only deduct the standard 15% (actually a bit less) taken from win only bets seeing as only one horse is involved. Is it greed or a lack of commonsense? Add the two together and you have it.

As a postscript news is through that the TAB has shown commonsense and is refunding the monies bet on the Australian Cup if the punter wishes to cancel their bet.

Just testing a few ideas:

March 13: Flemington: All Each Way

Race 2 No 4 Carbon Trader

Race 4 No 6 Mr Riggs

Race 9 No 9 Solchow

Race 10 No 7 Confidence Reef

March 13: Randwick: Each Way

Race 8 No 5 Bejewelled

No staking plan can weather a really bad run of outs without either breaking the bank or the punters heart. For a couple of months I have been testing a target betting plan for small stakes and although there have been some curly moments it has delivered simply because the worst run of outs was sensible. This weekend I ventured up north to Coolangatta, Queensland with three mates, Kibbo, Moonie and Gavin, for a good old fashioned boys weekend. Whereas they sunk enough beer combined to sink three battleships I sipped orange juice, drank tea, coffee and the equivalent of about six stubbies for the whole weekend due to my recent heart issues. As I knew boredom would set in just watching the boys down a few I decided to push my staking plan and bet on horses racing in unchartered territory. "Unchartered territory" is a cute way of saying racetracks I normally do not bet on across the country. With a wallet full of money, an active mind and no beer in my hand what else could I do?

On Friday afternoon I struggled to come to grips with the Friday class horses and lost however a juicy $3.90 place dividend at Moonee Valley night meeting saw me surge back to a slight lead at the end of a frenetic days betting. After my normal Saturday punting, on fields where I actually know the horses, I surged further ahead and was making a delightful 21.7% profit on turnover. I bounced out of bed Sunday with massive anticipation as there were meetings everywhere and my confidence levels were high. After all place betting on well fancied horses is not that big a risk, is it?

By the time I had finished Sunday night at about 7 pm all my profits from the previous two days had disappeared and a cavity had started to appear in my wallet big enough for seven elephants to stampede through. After 28 races, plus some "let's throw in a lazy $10 each and have a go at the trifecta" bets, the statistics showed I had collected a pathetic 11 times with three place dividends at the miserly odds of $1.00, $1.30 and $1.30. Never mind each was showing around $1.60 or better just before the jump: that's what they paid after the race.

Actually, I am exaggerating, as the loss was not that much in the scheme of a weekend away with the boys but it did drive home three gigantic lessons. If you bet on fields where you do not know the relative ability of each runner, how they normally position in a field from certain barriers and where value is difficult, if not impossible, to calculate then you are history. Another lesson learnt (again) is that you just cannot trust dividends, especially in the place pools, to hold up on the lower class meetings. You really are gambling that no one decides to bet a sizeable amount in the last thirty seconds and ruins your dividend.

However, what really mattered was that I had a fantastic weekend with three great mates who love nothing better than to have a beer, a bet and most of all laugh. I do not think I have laughed so much so often in such a short time. I look forward to the next trip wherever and whenever that will be - again I will be tempted for those "throwaway" bets but isn't that part of the fun, too.

What did we learn from Caulfield and Rosehill last Saturday? There were several lessons to be learnt worth storing for the future. The difference 100m makes for some horses was never more evident when Solchow came back from the 1200m she found too far last start to win fairly easily over 1100m in Race 1. It is probably too soon to really can her at 1200m but in future be aware she is best in the 1000m to 1100m range. Race 2 clearly told me Lady Lynette is an extremely classy mare. I knew she was good but her run over an unsuitable 1200m from the widest barrier was exceptional and if she does not win this campaign against mares grade it will be due to bad luck in running or injury.A race like the Doncaster would not be beyond her either.

In Race 3 I learnt that when I bag a horse, like I did for Rightfully Yours, I can still be wrong. There was no way I was backing him 1st up over 1400m at wfa and I was quite confident to lay him on Betfair. Halfway down the straight, when Road To Rock, seemed to have his measure I was about to go the early crow and congratulate myself on an easy pick up when he kicked back/and or Road To Rock ran out of condition and I was suddenly poorer for the opinion. At least I was right with Danzylum. In Race 4 I took on Set For Fame hoping Rostova and Irish Lights would at least make her work but she is good and again I was left lamenting. Race 5 only cemented what we know which is that Denman has the three year old males covered but harking back to Race 4 does he have the measure of Set For Fame in the Australian Guineas? Denman is $1.40 for the race while the filly is $6.00 and $1.71 for the place. As there is genuine chance she could win I suspect the $1.71 for the place is value and for a real blowout the $21 for Hanks seems more than fair. His run was full of merit especially for the AJC Derby which I would think he was set for and an Australian Guineas win is not beyond him.

I just could not back Heart Of Dreams nor could I lay him as I thought he would get exactly the run he actually got from about the 1000m mark but the extra work he did early plus second up at 1800m cost him victory. The query now with him is he able to run 2000m third up? He failed over the distance in the Cox Plate but then again so did a few others with high credentials. Personally, I am going against him. The Blue Diamond Stakes again proved why I seldom have a bet in the race these days though this year I backed Beneteau for the place as I believed he would obtain a wonderful trail off the pace. Just after watching the race I declared he was the best of good things beaten (I am quite one eyed during a race) until I saw the run of Star Witness and clearly the best horse won. However seeing as Star Witness is not running in the Golden Slipper Beneteau will be my selection at this early stage.

One wonders what Starspangledbanner would be like when he runs straight as he wobbled all over the place yet as a 3yo he beat some fairly tough competition. His next run will be in the Newmarket and considering the stable feel he has improvement left this campaign let's hope he handles the straight course at Flemington as well as he handles the turns at Caulfield. I rarely back chronic back markers but I really though Flying Tessie was a top class chance in the last and I am here to tell you she should have strolled in. She was three wide most of the way and even wider on the home turn yet kept coming and coming and my place bet was safe only through her courage.

I laid Rangirangdoo in the Apollo Stakes and an apprentice type ride cost him the money. Straight after the race his diplomatic trainer, Chris Waller, cleared Corey Brown by stating he told the jockey to ride him that way, that is, aggressively around the home turn. That's all very well but did he have to shoot him away so far from home as well 2nd up after a hard 1st up wet track run? Years ago current trainer Pat Hyland used to slip them away on the home turn BUT upon straightening he rested his horse for 100m and then kicked again. This tactic won Pat Hyland many races, especially at Caulfield, and I hope Corey Brown gives Pat a call!! Naturally, even though I got the money, honey I thought Rangirangdoo should have won comfortably. It is back to the drawing board for O'Lonhro who had the sweetest run but gave nought. The run by Palacio De Crystal was amazing for a horse that won a Villers handicap, just, with the majority of the field bunched with 4 lengths or so behind her. If she can produce another run like that at wfa or win a lead up handicap she will be very hard to beat in the Doncaster Handicap.

A top days racing once again proving opinion (Rightfully Yours) can be so wrong at times yet when Lady Luck is on your side (Rangirangdoo) grab it with all the energy you can muster. The next few weeks will provide a smorgasbord of mouth watering races in both Melbourne and Sydney. I will be searching for the acceptances within the hour.

It's amazing how quickly a week passes in our lives. Last Thursday afternoon I listened to my doctor saying, "I would like you to go home and pack a toothbrush and get yourself straight to hospital". Over a period of four or five months I had been experiencing mild chest pain, after exertion, which had worsened and being a form student I deduced the blood flow to my heart was not what it should be. I was correct but the extent of the damage was not apparent until after my angiogram, the process where they send special dye into your heart.

The amazing part of the angiogram process was that I was awake during the procedure and apart from some mild pain from the insertion of the wire the doctors use it was all fairly ho hum. What was not ho hum was the finding that I had a 99% blockage in one artery and about 50% in another and it looked like open heart surgery was on the cards. Naturally, everyone close to me was in mild shock, and initially I was surprised to say the least, but I have been a punter for over forty years and as you all know punters are made of material tougher than tungsten. I have always believed the words from the old Doris Day song, later sung by Normie Rowe, called "Que Sera Sera" which means "whatever will be, will be" and I entered into the thought processes about the future with positivity.

After spending a couple of days of lounging around receiving visitors, family and being monitored with various clamps, blood tests and blood pressure checks a team of doctors decided that stents should be slotted into the worst artery. If that was a problem then cut me they would. Well, I had the stents put in about 12pm on Monday and I was home Tuesday afternoon 1pm in what I can only describe as an astounding turn around. I did spend a miserable twelve hours on my back from the start of the procedure through to the excruciating hours where it was vitally imperative my right leg was not moved at all. At 12.30 a.m. I gingerly stepped out of bed and sat down for an hour and a half, with great relief , and at just after 2a.m. I toddled off for a sleep.

So, I am back home with enough tablets to choke a crocodile and more instructions than the pilot of a jet airliner would receive but you know what: it would really take some doing to upset me right at this moment. As for my future, whatever will be will be, and as for yours can I suggest you ask your doctor for a full check up for cholesterol (mines ok at 5.0 but will need to drop a fraction now) , blood pressure ( I have had high blood pressure for a few years - it's those close photos!!) and an ECG test (I had that) for starters. As an extra ask about how to you can get your arteries checked: it's the check that could save you.

You would have few arguments if you suggested Gai Waterhouse, Peter Snowden and Peter Moody really know how to train winners however there would quite some discussions taking place on how to back their runners. Taking one step backwards to nominations, rather than the final fields and you really find yourself deep into some very tough terrain.

This Saturday, just on metropolitan tracks, Gai Waterhouse has 7 nominations at Randwick. Peter Snowden has 10 at Randwick, 3 at Moonee Valley and 3 at Morphettvile while Peter Moody has 7 at Moonee Valley and 3 at Morphettville. This very formidable trio have nominated 33 horses for the Saturday metropolitan tracks. Now if I cared to add Geelong and Kembla Grange there would be more. While I am at it Danny O'Brien has 11 entered just at Moonee Valley and I didn't even look at David Hayes: adding those two trainers to my original trio racks up over 50 just for the metro tracks.

Should, you the punter, follow the big stables and track every single move they make or should you try some other trainers. Personally, unless you are retired and have all day free, I think the answer is a no brainer. Drop the so called top stables and pick a handful of the so called lesser lights and make your life a tad easier.

Excellent trainers ,Mark Cavanagh (1 at Moonee Valley and 4 at Morphettville) and Mick Price (7 at Moonee Valley) have 12 runners nominated this Saturday while in Sydney, Joseph Pride has 2 nominations and Chris Waller has 3 at Randwick and 1 at Moonee Valley. I would be quite happy to follow that quartet across the country over the course of a years punting. They might not have the numbers game beaten but they sure can train and their runners aren't over bet as often as the original trio.

My suggestion is to select two trainers in each state that know how to train a winner (your choice) and follow their every move starting with the nominations through to track work and trials if that information is available. Once you have a database of their movements there will be times when it will feel like the trainer has sent you a personal email suggesting a wager or two on their runners. Consider this as a strategy for your Autumn campaign.

Is life becoming easier for the punter who likes the classy odds on favourites? So far this autumn it seems like it is as the top notch horses like Black Caviar, Denman and now Typhoon Tracy have resumed their preparation and are undefeated after 4 runs. Classy horses always do well first up, as you would expect, but there is always the niggling doubt about first up runs, especially if the horse is being set for the more prestigious Group 1 races further into their campaigns. I backed Here De Angels to beat Black Caviar when the filly was resuming and on Saturday I had another two small bets against the obvious class runners, Typhoon Tracy and Denman, when I backed Danzylum and Carrara.

The value punters will tell you the "v" word is gospel and overall their argument carries a lot of weight however value has cost me lately. I guess the value punters will suggest betting against the likes of the trio mentioned is a path to betting suicide but is it long term? Over the years I have seen some very short priced top class horses bite the dust when first up and second up early in their campaigns but perhaps I am living too much in the past. Perhaps, because there were less options than seems to be available today, more of the better class runners met each other more often in my early punting days and consequently to win a race you had to be both physically fit and have the ability as well.

However, the wins by the above trio could also highlight they are just simply exceptional horses and I, as the punter, should either leave the race alone or back the short priced favourite and not only enjoy their wins but profit as well. Alas, we punters are always looking for value and if you think a favourite, no matter the class of the animal, might be a fraction soft surely we should take it on, long term.

It will be interesting to see how this trio fare as a betting proposition by the end of their preparations at short odds. At the moment they are killing the value punters but we all know value wins in the long run or does it when betting against true potential champions?

The CF Orr Stakes over 1400m is the usual starting point for the serious Group 1 contenders for the Autumn races in Melbourne and Sydney however it is often a headache race for punters due to the unknown fitness levels of the key players.

Although a win would not totally surprise I am happy to risk Viewed, Zipping and Shocking for the win position simply because they have bigger fish to catch around Australian Cup (Flemington) and BMW Stakes (Randwick) time with a possibility of the Sydney Cup an option as well. Littorio, off a 308 days break, and Sirmione, off 350 days, should also be risked.

The tricky runner is Danzylum who will lead with Typhoon Tracey most likely sitting second. His fitness gives him a flukers chance of kicking away and stealing the race if the autumn stars are being ridden too "softly", for want of another word. This savage culling has the main chances as Sniper's Bullet (very capable first up), Heart Of Dreams (an excellent 2.2L defeat 1st up last campaign at wfa behind Predatory Pricer when not ridden well), Raffaello (good thing beaten in Group 1 Rupert Clarke Stakes 2nd up after winning first up and now trained by G (Jim) Marconi) and the mare Typhoon Tracy (1st up last campaign just grabbed by Predatory Pricer in last 50 metres).

The way the race will be run will favour Typhoon Tracy until the 100m mark but after that fitness issues kick in. There is little doubt she will be trained for the Coolmore Classic and based on that assumption she might just be a fraction underdone this weekend. She is a top class mare but just be careful about the price you take if you decide to back her. To add to the selection problems heavy rain is forecast around Melbourne on Friday: let's hope most of the rain misses Caulfield as a wet track is the last thing this top race needs.