Welcome to Punters Corner with Roman Koz

A major part of the punt involves risk. This is not ground breaking news but the punters who availed themselves of the $7.60 available on Betfair for Shoot Out last Saturday felt quite vindicated when they defied all the risk factors to collect the cash. This weekend risk raises its head again when punters have to weigh up the relative chances of Love Conquers All and Danleigh in the 1200m wfa Missile Stakes this Saturday.

Is the pre post price of $1.70 for Love Conquers All worth taking when compared to $4.20 available for Danleigh? Last start LCA defeated Hay List by 0.8L on a slow track in a run where, at the weights, LCA rated 1.5kg better. At his next start Hay List absolutely slaughtered the most promising Pinwheel who went on to win the Ramornie at Gosford his next start. There can be no denying the class of Hay List hence LCA must also be highly rated. There are no gold stars for working that out.

Danleigh was beaten first up last preparation on a heavy track 1.1L by McClintock and 0.1L by Centennial Park in what was described as a pleasing run. Second up over 1400m ,but this time on a good track, he showed his superiority to just beat Rangirangdoo and Palacio De Crystal by 1,2L. Looking through Danleighs heavy track form it would be silly to suggest he cannot win however his best runs under off conditions at this class level have been on slow or better tracks. The heavy 9 suggested for tomorrow is, pardon the pun, a real dampener for Danleighs chances.

If you were backing LCA to win $100 your outlay would be $100/0.7 = $142 and for Danleigh you would be accountable for $100/3.2 = $32. Classwise LCA is rated at 99 while Danleigh is 118 or 19 points or 8.5kg so Danleigh has over 5.5L start class wise. As they straighten I am fairly confident LCA will be 5L in front of Danleigh therefore the class difference is negated, to a certain extent. When you weigh up $142 versus $32 you are talking about quite a difference which, at the prices on offer today, has me suggesting the smaller bet on Danleigh is where the value lies.

At this stage of LCA career I am prepared to suggest $1.70 is not worth the risk however a three lengths win would not surprise me at all. However, if you punt based on what wouldn't surprise you at $1.70 I think long term you will have your monetary back against the wall.

The entries for the Caulfield Cup, Melbourne Cup and WS Cox Plate have been finalized and here we go again. There are 49 international entries from 30 international trainers spanning seven countries which has all three racing clubs over the moon but for us punters the usual "we don't know them" problem exists. Locally Mr Melbourne Cup Bart Cummings has 12 entries with So You Think and Faint Perfume the obvious leading lights followed by Dariana and Precedence.

A few years ago a regular British correspondent on the "Ausrace" forum, John NB, made it abundantly clear he believed the Japanese would become a major force to be reckoned with in staying races by the mid 2000's. Apparently the Japanese had been buying any European horses with staying blood they could get their hands on and price was not an issue. Their plan was to have top class stayers capable of winning the best staying races with naturally the Japan Cup highest on their wish list. Their performances in Australia have been outstanding with Eye Poppers second in the 2005 Caulfield Cup and the 2006 Delta Blues/Pop Rock quinella in the Melbourne Cup from a handful of Japanese runners.. The equine virus halted further forays to our shores but the shutters are up and all things being equal there may be five Japanese runners in the Melbourne Cup.

It is interesting to note the attack owner Lloyd Williams has mounted this year with eight international buys amongst his 20 nominations. However, there can always be an Australian smokie we have not yet contemplated as a serious Melbourne Cup chance even though we may have had some vague thought this horse could make the next step. Who will it be?

No matter what course we take: the Aussies including New Zealanders , Japanese or Europeans we must also need to consider the issue of price. What is a fair price right now? You can take two courses: one, bet early but at huge odds with massive hope or secondly, bet only on the day and only perspire on one day,

There is no doubt the Melbourne Cup fascinates most Australian punters. These days it is more of a riddle than ever before but if you get it right early the payout can be excellent.

There are some horses you have to sneak up on and back them before they know you have backed them. This type of horse has Superman's x-ray vision because when they see you have backed them they become very coy about putting in a winning effort. Two weeks ago I had a crack at a horse called Bike Aaromba in a race at Perth labeling him a best bet. This noble beast didn't jump all that well but I thought the effort fairly weak as it had its chance in the straight.

Last Saturday it buttered up again and suddenly I was facing the horns of a dilemma. Should I back it to recover what I had lost the previous Saturday or should I back my judgement about the run and not throw any further money away? With three minutes to go it was hovering around 2/1 on Betfair and had my trigger finger ready to hit submit when I decided to check the spell dates of his most recent wins. I breathed a sigh of relief when I noted no 7 day back up wins and the itchy finger slipped back in the holster.

Halfway up the straight I am positive I saw Bike Aaromba turn his head ever so slightly to the right, and thus towards to me watching his run on my television monitor, and stick his tongue out in a defiant moment encapsulating the term "Up yours". Just when I thought he might weaken he raised another effort to just last and there I was weeping uncontrollably for the second week in a row.

What do you do with a horse like this? Do you accept defeat and say to yourself, "Too hard to follow" or do you sit and wait in ambush mode when he least expects it? I have always instilled in my children the Kozlovski motto of "never give up" and I would be Mr Hypocrite if I backed out of this battle. One day soon I will be sitting home with a black stocking on my head, thus fooling Bike Aaromba, having backed him.. I will have a tissue in one hand and a glass of champagne in the other while I watch the race and hopefully the champagne hand will be the one that moves.

Today keen punters face a conundrum in the wfa 1100m Bletchingly Stakes when they have to decide the order in which to rate the top class runners, Shoot Out and Velocitea
Mathematically there is 5.05% difference in price between Shoot Out ($4.40) and Velocitea ($3.60) and cash wise if you backed them to win $100 you would outlay $29 and $38 respectively.

The form guide shows Shoot Out did not win in his only campaign until his fourth race start when he won at Group 2 level over 1200m defeating More Than Great and Viking Legend. On face value he has the job ahead of him to win today except for the fact he just blossomed with every run and on bland assessment he is a better horse than Velocitea.

Velocitea won first up last preparation defeating Valentine Miss by 0.1L when carrying 1kg more and went on to win at Group 1 level, after 43 days, when defeating the above average Catapulted At her previous first up run she ran second to Jaalippy beaten 1.3L at level weights. Even the connections of Valentine Miss and Jaalippy would agree they are just below the top rung so this is where the riddle of this race starts. Which of the two is the better bet?

On distance and track ability it is Velocitea and you would also think she would be ahead of Shoot Out in running. However, Shoot Out has an extraordinary finish and if Velocitea is a fraction underdone watch out. The choice the punter always has to make has to make is between class (Shoot Out) or distance (Velocitea) when this type of occurrence happens.

To solve the problem you can back them both at the equivalent odds of about $2.05 but you have to ask yourself is that value for two horses that have bigger fish to fry later in the season. There are much better $2.05 chances coming up this Spring so I will have to make a betting choice. I choose Shoot Out because I suspect it will drift (= value)and Velocitea will be backed. If I can get 5/1 Shoot Out or better I will take the chance and at the 600m mark it will be considered just a chance. If he loses then I will just set aside a Shoot Out column and back him this campaign until I collect enough to recover any previous lost monies plus a small profit to boot.

Good luck whichever way you go.

The article "Lights on at Money Valley" (Herald Sun , Jul 26) was a magnificent advertisement for Moonee Valley but as hard as I looked I saw nothing for the punter. A $75,000 luxury car for the trainer who horses win more than one million dollars at the night meetings, a $30,000 cash prize for the jockey whose mounts win more than one million dollars at night meetings and the introduction of a 55 second challenge for the fastest horse over the new 955m course would win the trainer a $55000 car and the jockey a $10000 watch.

The ride of the night earns the jockey $500 and an $85000 bonus for any trainer who trains the winner of the 3yo Alister Clarkes Stakes-Wfa Cox Plate double is also on the agenda as well as other jockey and trainer incentives. According to MVRC Chief Executive, Michael Browell, the club has "dared to be different" and different it has become because the initiatives will benefit owner, trainers and jockeys tremendously but what about Mr/Ms Punter?

Is there anything like a few $500 free bets or prizes for a punter or two or is there anything like a tipping contest where a common pool is won by the best tipster on the night? What about a few free tickets to the Cox Plate or even a free seasons ticket or two? What about a seasons ticket with reduced costs per meeting? What about, what about, what about????

It constantly amazes me the punter is so often forgotten in promotions yet where are the clubs without them? Just watch the crowds drop anywhere and the first thing lamented is all the outside competition racing has to contend with but nought is mentioned about incentives to head trackwise.

Personally, Moonee Valley is my favourite track by a good two lengths. I love the closeness of the track, the undercover facilities and the nooks and crannies of the grandstand but if I just had a few serious incentives to go I would be there more than just a couple of times per year.

Listen up, Moonee Valley. What about some bonuses for the punter?

For years and years the catch cry of form students has been weights, weights and nothing but weights however in recent times there has been a movement in the punting world that believe this worth challenging. Rem Plante drove a push for weights with his Nomograph ADE Scale, where you had to use a ruler to measure the importance of weight shifts, and immortal Australian punter Don Scott really hammered home the arguments for weights in his series of books. In my early days I was enthralled, as many punters were, by the amazingly analytical discussions on radio each Saturday morning by Cliff Cary. These were out and out weights men.

Whether you believe in weights these days or not is up to you but tomorrow in Race 7 at Moonee Valley there is a classic weights situation that would have had Cliff Cary waxing lyrical and declaring one horse could not beat the other home, at the weights. On July 10 Figure Of Speech, carrying 55kg, beat Crabs, carrying 54.5kg, by one length or, as weight experts say, by 1.5kg.If Crabs had 1.5kg less there would have been a theoretical deadheat therefore there is 2kg between the two, at the weights.Tomorrow, after the claim, Crabs will carry 51kg while Figure Of Speech will carry 59kg thus Crabs is 6kg, or 4 lengths, better off.

Form students will point out Crabs has had 11 runs at MV for 1 win and Figure Of Speech two runs with one of the runs a respectable 4.8 lengths defeat in the Moonee Valley Cup. Not even Crab's mother would believe he could finish as close in a Group race run at Set Weights and Penalties on Cox Plate day.

You know what I am going to ask, don't you. Which of the two do YOU favour to finish ahead of the other?

Far too many punters shy away from favourites yet they offer the punter a better opportunity for profit making than the so called "value" horses. Value horses typically are 5/1 plus and for some punters horses must be 10/1 or longer before they are considered for betting purposes. What has to be realized is the shorter the price the less the punter loses per dollar invested hence it makes sense to seek bets in an area of less volatility.

If a study was to be made which detailed 500 runs for every price range from $1.10 to $101 plus it would show, barring minor variances, an amazingly linear set of profit and loss figures. I mention profit because in some studies I have seen over the years the shortest priced favourites, that is, those at $1.30 or less show a profit yet those are the exact horses Mr and Mrs Public try to avoid by citing they are not "value".

Where a mug punter can turn the corner and become an astute punter is in their assessment of whether a favourite is a true favourite. Broadly speaking the favourite has passed the overall scrutiny of the punting public but as good as the public is overall it still makes mistakes. By the way if you don't think the public is all that good then try and pick 30% winners race after race all year long over all sorts of distances, classes and track conditions. In order to increase the 30% figure the punter must delve deeper into the form lines and start eliminating dodgy favourites.

So what constitutes a false favourite? Clearly lack of fitness must be the leading reason and pre race the first clue we punters have is the date of the horses last start. The worst dates are those for first uppers and the higher the racedate number the riskier proposition the favourite becomes. All previous runs around first up runs must be evaluated especially in relation to distance. A first up win over 1000m is not the same as a first up attempt at 1200m. Any favourite first up at 1200m who has only won at 1000m, or even 1100m, is a false favourite. Keep away from them and you will save money.

The death of a top class racehorse is always a sad moment for the racing fraternity and with the death of Zeditave another chapter of Australian horserace history passes by. The racing world loves a fighting racehorse, who just gives and gives, and Zeditave was one of this rare type of racehorse. I am not sure whether it was one of the jockeys or the trainer, Angus Armanasco, but it was said the jockey needed to be quite strong as Zeditave only needed to see a whiff of a space between two runners and he would start to barge his way through. Timidity was not in his makeup.

It's easy to forget he won his first six starts as a 2yo, including the Blue Diamond Stakes, and came back to win another eight races to finish with an amazing fourteen wins from just seventeen starts. Amongst those wins were the Futurity Stakes, William Reid Stakes and the Lightning Stakes as well as winning the Champion Three Year Old of his year. Vale to Zeditave.

While trawling through the fields I came across Race 1 in Brisbane where the topweight Hidden Wonder is weighted on 58.0kg with the rest of the field on the 53kg limit. As punters we must always look out for the rising classy types and try and follow them through their careers but the horse not always mentioned is the "class racehorse of the field". This is the horses that has stood out as far as this class is concerned.Would you ever want a clearer indication of a horse the handicapper considers a standout? When you realize the trainer, Kris Lees, has travelled from Newcastle with his mare, and has found what looks a very winnable race, you start to reach for the wallet.

Hold onto your hats because the first faltering steps of the 2010 Spring carnival is about to lurch into action this Saturday. Although the official racing year starts on August 01 the unofficial start, as far as I am concerned, starts with the wfa Sir John Monash Stakes and here it is.

As you know I am in Mark Kavanagh's corner this Spring (wow, that's not hard to do) and I note he has Elusive Touch entered while I have decided to add Joseph Pride and Chris Waller to my trainers list and the former has entered Electric Dreams. Formwise, at the weights, we are guessing as fitness levels versus weight advantage (Royal Ida must have that at wfa) is always just an educated guess but if I am going to follow a couple of stables I need a plan of attack.

The plan will be to back the runners I like from the stables to win $100 each win as long as I receive what I consider a fair price. Naturally, that's when the fun begins because "what is a fair price?" but that will be my decision as the betting progresses. Sometimes it will be 20/1 while other times it will be 2/1. What about you? What are your thoughts about stable betting? What is your minimum acceptable price? Yes, there is a bit to think about, isn't there. If my attack works early in the carnival I shall be raising the objective per win and who knows what amount I will be shooting for by the time the real Spring carnival is in full flight? It could be chocolates or boiled lollies.

The keen ones among you will have had a look at the weights for Saturday and would have noticed two Bart Cummings runners have been entered: the enigmatic Moatize and the Melbourne Cup aspirant, Precedence.

Like I said earlier - hold onto your hats.

I was going to follow up my trainer blog tomorrow, or even Saturday morning, but as I will be chauffering a punting mate from Queensland this weekend and time may be an issue I thought I would have a look at the jockey figures as well this morning. He must be a good mate because he will have me rising about 4am Saturday morning to drive to Cranbourne and for an early Sunday drive to Caulfield not to mention pick up and dropping off at Tullamarine. Guess who is shoutimg me dinner on Saturday night, plus drinks!!

Once you compare the trainer figures with the jockey figures you could easily come to the conclusion following jockeys is a better overall proposition as even though two jockeys stand out across Australia, figures wise, the gap between several of the other jockeys is not as wide as the trainers, the way I look at the stats. If we start from the top we find Australia's best jockey, based on The Sportsman's figures, is Paul Harvey from WA (54.5 wins - 220 runners - 24.77%). Close behind is Nash Rawiller (79 wins - 353 runners - 22.37%) and the next closest is Brent Evans (Vic: 27 wins - 145 runners - 18.62%). There are several jockeys just behind Brent Evans and they include J Parr, M Rodd, J Bowman and C Lever.

What surprises, as with the trainers, are the poorer figures for a few of the higher profile jockeys. In Sydney G Schofield (11.55%), Blake Shinn (10.94%) surprise a fraction while in Melbourne D Dunn (9.48%), D Nikolic (8.52%) C Symons (8.50%) have poor figures but the most surprising is C Newitt (7.63%).

I need to say, however, that the figures, for trainers and jockeys, presented cover all price ranges and some will have better percentages if we use figures closer to the favourites end of prices.

Just the same Rule 1: Jockeys must be "follow Paul Harvey" and Rule 2: Jockeys must be "follow N Rawiller".