Welcome to Punters Corner with Roman Koz

The spell dates, that is the days between starts, for some horses are a real worry for the punter.This weekend there are two horses racing at Caulfield that fit this worrying pattern. In race two Kwassa Kwassa raced 7 days ago after a 35 day break, which was preceded by 43 days away from the track and the run before was first up from 188 days. His two runs prior to the spell had breaks of 63 and 28 days. There is no doubt this horse has had problems and it is a credit to both the trainer, Shane Stockdale, and the horse to note his prizemoney totals $208,475.

In race 5 Gibraltar Moon has breaks of 98, 28,37, 26 and 113 days peppered within her last five runs again indicating problems. Although her prizemoney only totals $149,339 connections at least have the bonus of being able to breed from her which is not the case with Kwassa Kwassa, who has had the "snip".

From a punting point of view both runners represent the type of horse the punter has to steer clear of simply because it is not known how fit the horse is after each break as their spell dates are not in the comfort zone fourteen days suitable to most horses. In the prepost TAB odds Kwassa Kwassa is $5.50 and Gibraltar Moon is $3.50 and in the long term these are not profitable odds for this type of horse. What the odds are saying is KK is an 18% chance of winning and GM is a 28% chance of winning and for mine that is not value.

I am not betting seriously in both races but if I do it will be for a miniscule amount on a roughie, if there is one at odds worth worrying about. If I am beaten I hope both win as connections certainly deserve a win from their respective runners as I am sure they have had their fair share of worries along the way.

Just testing a few ideas
Randwick: All each way
Race 2 No 1 Mafia Miss
Race 3 No 6 Hus Der Lieften
Race 4 Nos 1 Moatize
9 Lycean Academy
Race 6 Nos 1 Theseo
12 Brilliant Light
19 Snapy Halo
Race 7 No1 Gold Trail

Caulfield: All each way
Race 3 No 9 Knightsbridge
Race 6 No 2 Gran Sasso

Morphettville: All each way
Race 5 No 6 Devil May Care

It always pays to have a look at the photo form prior to a race just to remind you of the strength of the form in the printed guides but it also helps to look after the races as well. The last race on March 27 at Rosehill was the Group 3 Birthday Card Stakes and after yesterdays Randwick meeting this race has become quite a key race for the remainder of the Autumn carnival. Dare I say it at this stage but perhaps the form lines should be noted for the Spring carnival as well.

The race was won by Patronyme beating Beaded, Melito and Jersey Lily. Since then Patronyme was outclassed at wfa yesterday ( ran a fantastic race until the 100m mark) behind Melito while Beaded was just beaten by Renaissance in the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes with Jersey Lily a length behind Beaded. This race certainly has strength written all over it.

In the Phar Lap Stakes run on March 20 Tickets beat Al Dhafra with Descarado 3rd just ahead of Lentini and Shamardashing 0.5L further back. Al Dhafra showed courage to win yesterday, Tickets has been outclassed wfa since in the George Ryder, Descarado ran a bottler in the AJC Derby beaten a by a genuine spring stayer, Shamardashing raced greenly yesterday (gear change needed) to just nab 3rd behind Al Dhafra. This is another strong race.

There is an unanswered question from Saturday. How good is Count Encosta as a future stayer? He beat Descarado home in the Tulloch Stakes but unfortunately had to be scratched due to a barrier mishap. If you keep any sort of punting diary jot down all the names mentioned above for the Spring but do not forget them in the next couple of weeks either.

It always pays to have a look at the photo form prior to a race just to remind you of the strength of the form in the printed guides but it also helps to look after the races as well. The last race on March 27 at Rosehill was the Group 3 Birthday Card Stakes and after yesterdays Randwick meeting this race has become quite a key race for the remainder of the Autumn carnival. Dare I say it at this stage but perhaps the form lines should be noted for the Spring carnival as well.

The race was won by Patronyme beating Beaded, Melito and Jersey Lily. Since then Patronyme was outclassed at wfa yesterday ( ran a fantastic race until the 100m mark) behind Melito while Beaded was just beaten by Renaissance in the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes with Jersey Lily a length behind Beaded. This race certainly has strength written all over it.

In the Phar Lap Stakes run on March 20 Tickets beat Al Dhafra with Descarado 3rd just ahead of Lentini and Shamardashing 0.5L further back. Al Dhafra showed courage to win yesterday, Tickets has been outclassed wfa since in the George Ryder, Descarado ran a bottler in the AJC Derby beaten a by a genuine spring stayer, Shamardashing raced greenly yesterday (gear change needed) to just nab 3rd behind Al Dhafra. This is another strong race.

There is an unanswered question from Saturday. How good is Count Encosta as a future stayer? He beat Descarado home in the Tulloch Stakes but unfortunately had to be scratched due to a barrier mishap. If you keep any sort of punting diary jot down all the names mentioned above for the Spring but do not forget them in the next couple of weeks either.

The stewards in Sydney have really worked for their money in the last fortnight. Apart from their normal work in detailing the various race happenings they have had to take careful steps after the public scathing trainer Tony Vasil gave jockey Jim Cassidy over his ride on Psychologist in the Magic Night Stakes a fortnight ago. All punters viewing the race were staggered to see Psychologist so far in front near the home turn and perhaps wondered if Jim Cassidy thought he was out in front on Might And Power. As it has turned out the stewards clearly felt the addition of blinkers for the first time had an adverse effect on Psychologist who, according to the stewards, overraced in the early stages of the race. The telling factor exonerating Jim Cassidy , as I read it, was that he "visibly changed his hold" on the horse at the 1000m in an attempt to stop it's erratic behaviour. It seems Tony Vasil became a grandstand jockey like us all and was far too quick in his condemnation of the ride. To add to his woes he was fined $500 for certain actions against the jockey as they were leaving the course. It strikes me that Tony Vasil should make a public apology to Jim Cassidy but I think my chances of tipping the quadrella in one this Saturday anywhere would be a better chance of happening but you never know.

While the stewards were sorting through the Cassidy Vasil problems along comes the $2000 fine handed out by Ray Murrihy for excessive whipping by Michael Rodd on Faint Perfume last Saturday. To say the jockeys were upset about the amount would be an understatement according to all reports and it seems the possibility of industrial action is on the cards unless some commonsense takes place. I have made it quite clear in my writings what a load of cobblers I think this all is and what a mistake the powers in charge have made listening to the minority groups trying to bring racing down. They have succeeded in bringing jumps racing to its knees by conning officialdom into lowering the height of the jumps when they should have been heightened. They have the racing fraternity in knots over the usage of whips and you can bet your bottom dollar a campaign against racing two year olds will be next on the agenda.

Due to the furore over Michael Rodds indiscretions the magnificent effort by Faint Perfume to come from an absolutely hopeless position to beat Valdemoro (she was bet at $1.05 in the running on Betfair) has seemingly been forgotten. All keen punters not only await their immediate clash in the AJC Oaks, which the betting indicates they have at their mercy, but hopefully some further battles around Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup time.

Just testing a few ideas

Randwick: all each way
Race 2 No 8 Happy Hippy
Race 6 No 4 Black Ball
Race 7 No 1 Monaco Consul
Race 9 No 4 Absolute Joy

Flemington: all each way
Race 5 No 4 Pre Eminence
Race 8 No 6 Okay Oky

Punters can overdo the "what might happen" scenario to the point where far too many doubts cloud their form work. This weekend yours truly really showed how this "works" with two examples that cost me money.

Earlier in the week I was quite keen on Crystal Lily's chances for the Golden Slipper until after the barrier draw, when she drew the rails, and when I read the track was going to be heavy I caved in and looked elsewhere. My theory was she would possibly become caught up on the fence in perhaps slushier conditions. You will note the word "perhaps" and "possibly" in the last sentence. This is called supposition and is based on a series of "what ifs" and actually has nothing to do with past form.

My "perhaps" and "possibly" thought processes did not stop there as I expanded this line of thinking to the Queen Of The Turf Stakes when assessing the chances of Typhoon Tracy. It was possible she might not handle the slow conditions and perhaps the 35 days break since her last start as well would be of major concern and she would be vulnerable. I also hoped she might be forced to work from her wide barrier to boot.

I was quite happy to lay Typhoon Tracy for the win and for one quarter of my win risk for the place and when she won like the champion she is I looked like a real dill. Anyhow, I just gulped and as all punters must do waited for the next race. Eventually, along came the Golden Slipper and I backed Beneteau for the place and watched Crystal Lily finish on the outside fence after an amazing shift in the straight.

After the Golden Slipper I pondered about how we punters sometimes just get too mesmerized by too many "what ifs" and in the finish outsmart ourselves. Quite often it can be as simple as stating "Who is the best horse in the race?" The answer in the Queen Of The Turf was easy enough but not so in the Golden Slipper although Crystal Lily should have been in most punters top three without too much thinking.

Yes, it was a rough day for some keen analysts but the same form students know that it is all about the end of the year and not just one day's results. I had my reasons: the sort that worry me with the short priced runners and I acted upon those doubts. My laying figures this calendar year have been more than satisfactory so the doubts have paid off in the past and all things being equal will for the rest of the year as well. No one ever said this punting game was easy but I will be there next week and "perhaps" my theories will recoup this weeks losses.

A few months ago I mentioned a project I had in the pipeline I called "Generic Ratings" where it was my intention to grade the better class horses according to my interpretation of their relative abilities over a range of distances. The distance ranges were 900m to 1100m for Pure Sprinters, 1200m-1300 for Sit Sprinters, 1400m-1500m for Not Quite Milers but not just sprinters, 1600m for Milers, 1900m-2050m for the Middle Distance runners, 2400m-2600m for Stayers and 3000m-3200m for Dead Set Stayers.

Due to travelling, health and time reasons I had to drop the project for three months but this week I hopped back into the fray and can I tell you the intensiveness of the calculations involved can be quite confronting. I thought I would share some "hints" if you wished to start a similar project.

First of all you MUST use a spreadsheet (Excel) as the Z to A sorting ability is a Godsend. Secondly, start with the two ranges covering 900m to 1300m, followed by the 1600m range and then the 2400m to 2600m range. They are three completely different ranges and it will amaze you how brutal you can be when it comes to assessing the ability of a top class 1600m runner when it runs at 1200m. Thirdly, assess the Mares separately.

Once you have the Mares rated sensibly you must mentally assume your top mare (it has to be Typhoon Tracy, doesn't it) is in a race against the top males at level weights. Does she win or run a placing? Who is your second best mare, then third and so on to the point where you confidently feel you have the order of mare, male, mare , male correct. It is simply (well, not actually but you know what I mean) a matter of mentally running races and deciding who finishes where. Constant use of the Z to A sorting function becomes extremely helpful as you can keep adjusting and adjusting to your hearts content.

Next, you can adjust the ratings for the other ranges fairly easily at this stage as some will only change marginally i.e. 1400m-1500m range when compared to the 1600m range though for the 2400m-2600m range further thinking needs to be done as there is quite a difference between 2000m and 2600m.

One last thing. I was quite happy to split the ratings into tenths of 1.0 thus I had horses rated 62.0, 62.1, 62.2, 62.3 and so on. This IS splitting hairs but I want to rate one ahead of the other as much as possible as part of my strategy for punting on the ratings. With the Autumn carnival well under way NOW is the time for you to decide if you want to start a similar method yourself.

Just testing a few ideas:
Rosehill: April 3: all each way
Race 5 No 12 Purple
Race 7 No 4 Beneteau
Race 9 No 2 Kroner

Caulfield: April 3 : all each way
Race 5 No 4 Running Riot
Race 5 No 7 Pink Shimmer
Race 6 No 7 Orbit Express

I normally give the Golden Slipper a miss but this year I believe the winner is within punting reach for three good reasons. Crystal Lily (Br1), Decision Time (Br2) , Chance Bye (Br3), Brightexpectations (Br4), Lohan (Br7), Military Rose (Br8) and Solar Charged (Br13) are all capable of leading therefore the early pace will be H for hectic. The question we cannot answer is which jockeys will be sensible and ease out of any suicidal battle for the clear lead and take their chances of getting a run upon straightening. If the pace is suicidal both Military Rose and Solar Charged will have to work early and will be vulnerable in the last 100m.

The horse I am selecting is Beneteau because I believe he will receive a cosy run about 5-6 lengths off the pace and he has the ability to run the excellent sectionals he will need to win the race. I also believe he has beaten better horses heading to the Golden Slipper than several of the other main chances as he has beaten Willow Creek, Crystal Lily and Shaaheq who have won races since Benteau's great Blue Diamond Stakes run.

Crystal Lily is my second selection (main worry crowding from barrier 1) from Military Rose (might be caught wide) and Chance Bye (not raced for several weeks) with my roughie Carved In Stone (improver on excellent first race start).

VicTAB has Military Rose at $3.60 which means I will be playing bookmaker on Betfair as, in my opinion, this is a poor price. I am prepared to consider Crystal Lily ($5.50), Brightexpectations ($5.50) and Chance Bye ($9.50) to be fair value but naturally my value is Beneteau ($13.00) as I have him price around 5/1. With forecast rain I will be watching the early races very keenly to note how horses racing near the fence are handling the conditions. If the fence is off Military Rose will become a better chance and horses like Crystal Lily and Chance Bye may well become riskier propositions. This is what the punt is all about, isn't it: calculations, observations and then the ultimate - the bet.

Would you follow the lead if you saw an owner have a very large bet on one of his horses? I am of the belief that most punters would consider this a tip of the highest order and would reach into their wallet, extract several notes and hop on as well. By now respected owner David Moodie and connections will have paid the $150000 late entry fee for their filly Crystal Lily to run in the $3.5 million dollar Golden Slipper. The first prize in the Golden Slipper, forgetting trophies and other minor incentives, is $2 million thus the connections are getting 12.33 to 1 about their "bet" on a horse quoted $6.50 for the race which is a nice bit of overs.The connections of Masquerader ($13) and Decision Time ($21) are also paying the late fee.

If you look at it mathematically the connections of Decision Time are taking unders their outlay but, and it is a huge but, what needs to be considered is the value of their horse if it wins the race. Now, all of a sudden, their investment looks less like a gamble but more like an investment albeit there is a subtle difference between the two.

These days I am not a huge fan of 2yo races like the Golden Slipper firstly from a punting viewpoint as lining up the improvement factor on the basis of a handful of runs is fraught with punting danger. I also wonder whether all the runners are actually physically mature enough to contest this high pressure race. I guess you have to leave it to the trainers to judge the maturity issue but I am sure the lure of the quick dollar is a massive incentive just the same.

Personally, I will be having Crystal Lily in my top three chances (she was there anyway before the late payment) and whether she becomes the A selection quite clearly depends on the barrier draw. Add Brightexpectations (what a win last Saturday),Military Rose and I have not given up on Beneteau (poorly ridden last start) to find my four top chances. The barrier draw tomorrow will decide many punters A to D order.

The 2010 AFL Aussie Rules season started on Thursday night and this season I am starting a many pronged, punting attack on this magnificent game. I will be the first to admit my football knowledge is fairly average however I do know about odds and in a quaint way I feel I have a gut feel for what represents value on AFL matches, most times.

I barrack for Richmond and according to all the odds makers we are in for a tough year however punting wise there is more than way to skin a tiger on the punt. Actually, there are many, many, many ways as evidenced when I logged onto Sportsbet to find there were 23 betting options on the ONE match at face value. What will boggle your mind is how many options there are within the 23 betting options. The simplest was the Head to Head 2.75 for Richmond and 1.47 for Carlton to possibly the hardest the Exact Winning Margin. The next easiest would be the Line where points in are given with Richmond at +14.5 pts.

My next step was to log into Betfair and I found Richmond at $3.15 and Carlton $1.44 so I started my 2010 football betting with $5 to win on Richmond. This is $0.40 better than what Sportsbet are offering hence for my $5 Sportsbet returns $13.75 while Betfair returns $15.75 less $0.54c for their 5% deduction on winnings or $15.21. Now, the extra $1.46 is not a massive amount but multiply this by x wins per year and it adds up. I like a little more action than just the one bet so I had another $5 on Richmond to win the First Quarter on Betfair at 2.38.

I have drawn up a page for each team and will apply some simple Target Betting to win $5 per bet over the course of the season. I will apply a safety break that decrees anytime I am winning 10% profit on turnover I will draw a line in the sand and start again.

Alas, the Tigers, although showing some promising moments for such a young team, were crunched in the first quarter with Carlton scoring 5 goals in the first 13 minutes and finally beaten into submission in the last quarter. There goes $10 but I saw enough to know Richmond will surprise a few of the better teams once they learn to capitalize more on their opportunities.

Just testing a few ideas.

Rosehill: all each way
Race 2 No 8 Call Me Chrissie
Race 5 No 9 Milanesa
Race 6 No 13 Brilliant Light
Race 7 No 4 Extra Zero

Caulfield: all each way
Race 3 No 3 Belleza Veloz
Race 5 No 3 Orbit Express

It is time the Australian Racing Board (ARB) and the handicappers settled on some sort of symmetry between the allotted weights and the Handicapper Rating figures.

This Saturday in the 3yo Open 2000m handicap at Caulfield Kidnapped, trained by Peter Snowden, has been allotted 62kg and a Handicapper Rating (HR) of 94. Chartreux and Keep Control (HR74) have both been allotted 56kg, Red Colussus (HR72) has 55.5kg while Safety In Numbers (HR68) has 54.5kg.

Now this is where it starts to be silly. The HR figures suppose 0.5kg = 1 point thus Kidnapped is rated 10kg better than Chartreux and Keep Control therefore both should have been weighted on 52kg. A simple workout also shows there are problems in either the HR figure or the allotted weight for Safety In Numbers. Either way, if Kidnapped runs, they are all poorly handicapped IF the HR ratings are to be trusted and Kidnapped becomes a weights special. What will happen on Saturday, I suspect rather strongly, is that Kidnapped will start in the Rosehill Guineas thus making the Caulfield race just a normal 3yo event and the race will just pass us by.

Just for the record, as of 4.30pm Wednesday, Kidnapped has a HR figure of 97 in the weights for the Rosehill Guineas or 3 points more than in the Caulfield race. Am I to assume the HR figure comes from two sources? I guess a case like this highlights what a load of cobblers the HR figures are or is the handicapper wrong?