Welcome to Punters Corner with Roman Koz

In this mornings blog I said I would be providing some reasons why some of the top chances in the main races at Scone tomorrow could be considered worth risking (please refer to that blog in conjunction with this one). The punter must ask questions before the race rather than say "I should have noticed that" after the event. One quick rule for eliminating horses is to bag the get back types as they need all the breaks their way so this eliminates Black Piranha, The Jackal, All Legal, Slapstick, Renaissance, Illuminates, Serenissima, Snow Alert, Keepin" The Dream, Keffiya and Parfumier from the races I listed this morning. Personally, I would not mind owning anyone of this list: they have many wins ahead of them but today is about betting and not owning.

Now, one thing has to be said. The running styles of horses is not always an exact science as some horses vary in running styles depending on distance, whether they actually jump cleanly or if drawn poorly and are snagged back rather than go forward and be caught wide. The risk horses I listed above are MY assessment. In the long run I feel I will be about 1/1 in correctly selecting the horses that can vary their styles.

The horses left for further consideration are Border Rebel, Black Prince, Star Of Octagonal, Will To Win and Melpomene. Black Prince is second up and his best run second up was against inferior class than today so out he goes. This is a brutal because BP is quite a good horse but he has not run well second up in this company and that's the way it has to be. Star Of Octagonal has not raced for 27 days and on that basis there is a doubt especially for a horse that might have to work from his wide barrier. Will To Win looks a risk on his run last start but a top chance on his run first up to Latin News. As soon as I say the word "risk" out goes the horse in question.

The two horses left: Border Rebel and Melpomene have all their basic boxes ticked. This makes Border Rebel a true favourite and Melpomene an excellent each way chance IF you are happy enough to consider them capable enough in today's class of race. That, of course, is a personal assessment but isn't that what horseracing is all about.

Good luck to all the people at the Scone Racing Club. They have ALL their boxes ticked and one can only imagine what sort of crowd they are going to get. It should be a beauty and they deserve every accolade possible.

Good luck to Border Rebel and Melpomene, too!

Form work is often more about eliminating so called contenders that have too many form negatives. I have just noted the pre post prices for the meeting at Scone tomorrow and downloaded the form for the four main races for this magnificent meeting (well done, Scone: brilliant effort). Later this evening I will list the negatives I note about the main chances in each race as per the pre post betting. History shows the winners of three quarters of all races are in the first four or five in the betting so theoretically three of the four winners should be in the list. For this exercise I will need to evaluate the following horses from the 3yo Guineas (Star Of Octagonal, All Legal, Will To Win, Slapstick), Quality Hcp (Border Rebel, Black Piranha, The Jackal, Black Prince, Prince Braeman), Jewel Classic (Renaissance, Illuminates, Melpomee, Serenissima) and Scone Cup (Snow Alert, Keepin' The Dream, Strat's Flyer, Keffiya, Parfumier).

If you are a favourites punter then your task is simple: you need to find the true favourites that tick all the boxes. There is no true favourite in the Scone Cup as the favourite (well, actually favourites) are 6/1 (Snow Alert and Keepin' The Dream) In the list above there are three races where there are horses that could be classed as a true favourites: they are Star Of Octagonal ($3.40), Border Rebel ($3.00) and Renaissance ($4.20). Just on the raw price of $4.20 I would eliminate Renaissance as a 13/4 favourite is a favourite with some risk attached to it. That leaves only two horses to consider: Star Of Octagonal and Border Rebel. Easy, isn't it. Alas, if it was only a case of backing the two shortest priced runners on the day or horses quoted at $3.50 or less then life on the punt would be SO easy but we all know the truth: it isn't.

I will be back later this evening and by then I hope to have some form thoughts of mine available for the Scone meeting which might point you in the right direction

Another carnival is on the way: this time the Queensland carnival is really bristling it's teeth with the Group 2 Wfa Hollindale Stakes leading the charge at yesterdays Gold Coast meeting although last week at Eagle Farm the wfa Victory Stakes could have been considered the pipe opener for this year. In the next month or so we will have had the Doomben Cup, Doomben 10000, Queensland Oaks and Derby as well as the Stradbroke to enjoy or stress over or both. Barely a breath will be taken and the first of the sprint Wfa races in July will signal the dawning of another Randwick and Melbourne Cup carnival. Isn't life grand for the keen punter!

With the Brisbane carnival under way I thought I would list a few runners each week whose runs I thought were full of merit. For some fun I will back each to win a few dollars every start they have this campaign provided the odds are 3/1 or longer for the win or there are not multiple nominees in a race at odds that would mean I would have to take odds on overall per race. For instance, two 3/1 (25% + 25% = 50%) chances are the same as an 1/1 chance (50%) and that is fine but if there was a 9/1 chance (10%) as well then I would be in the odds on range. In that case I would just back the 10/1 chance and not lose any sleep over missing 1/1 about the other two. I will also look at backing them for a place if $2.50 or more is available however I can extend this form of betting to three runners per race and even four on some occasions. Let's see what happens as we go along.

From the May 1 meeting I will nominate The Jackal who sat wide all the way and fought all the way down the straight until he could give no more. This weekend Phelan Ready ran a similar race and was still there at the finish. In the same race Stryker ran out of his skin as well so add him to the list. Graceful Anna is very smart and one of the top Group races is well within reach. The hardy Gold Water was second all the way on a fierce early pace and if she won the Doomben 10000 or the Stradbroke who would be surprised?

So here they are in a list:
The Jackal
Phelan Ready
Stryker
Graceful Anna
Gold Water

As a punter Serenissima has not been my type of horse as she has always shown ability but has not produced winning performances at the next level. She won her first two races and then was spelled for 11 weeks. At her first up run she was blocked for a run to be beaten 0.7 Len at Listed level behind Bhutane Dane and Ahdashim and it was going to be a forgone conclusion several future races were there for her taking. After another two runs (one an excellent 2L defeat by Ortensia) she was spelled to again return for a first up win in an R86 event. Another three runs and again she was spelled after another top run: this time on Melbourne Cup day when beaten by Very Discreet and Seeking Attention.

This campaign she did not fire first up, nor second up or even third up and I wondered on Thursday night, "is she one of these mares that just does not fire after showing so much promise". After she won on Saturday I popped back to the form guide just to check if I had missed anything I should have noted. No, I was quite happy to agree with my self: pre race I was right however here I sit wondering what will I do next time she runs, formwise. Certainly, if the track is good she will be high in my thoughts as she now boasts 4 wins and 1 second under those conditions however how fickle are my thoughts going to be if the track next start is dead or worse. Her bland record now shows 7 runs under dead to heavy track conditions for one win (Saturday) and two thirds.

As I said in my first sentence: as a punter Serenissima is not my type of horse. I have often thought horses like her, that show terrific potential, might best be backed every start to win $x per start. You know she is going to win a race but you are never sure which race it will be. At least by target betting her for a sensible amount per start you will eventually catch her when she wins a race as she did on Saturday at 8/1.

Doing the form on tough fields is always a daunting task but I have a method of attack which helps me find my A selection fairly quickly. What I do is compare TAB 1 against TAB 2, TAB 3 against TAB 4 and so on down the field. I simply imagine both are racing just against one another as in a match race. In a race like this weekends Doncaster there will are 21 runners to consider and by using my comparison system I initially have 10 A selections and 11 B selections. When there are odd numbers of starters involved I make the lowest TAB number a B selection. At this point of the form analysis this has halved my search for the final A selection.

My next task is to compare all the A selections from my initial pairing which will give me 5 A and 5 B selections. Naturally, I start the pairing system again and from 5 A selections I have 2 A selections and 2 B selections. The leftover runners are put aside to be slotted in somewhere later in the process. Finally I have only two horses left to pair up and the "winner" of the imaginary race becomes my top pick for the race. If you require more than one selection per race it is simply a matter of conducting other sets of imaginary match races to sort the runners left. For instance, pair all the original B selections. After the process is finished you can basically have the whole field listed in an order from 1 to 21. The secret is to continually match one against the other.

My first pairing for the Doncaster has me considering Danleigh versus Theseo. I believe Danleigh will finish ahead of Theseo therefore Danleigh is my first A and Theseo my first B. As I move down the field I have Typhoon Tracy, Rangirangdoo, Wall Street, Allez Wonder, Brilliant Light, Centennial Park, Walking Or Dancing, Drumbeats and Snapy Halo as my other "winners" from the pairing process. It is important to realize just because Theseo is defeated by Danleigh he is not out of contention for a spot in the top selections. In fact, at this early stage I have him as my D selection overall.

Have a play with this approach: it works well for me and will do so for you if applied logically.

ERRATA:

Back on April 14 I doubled up on another blog and this one was supposed to be sent. Although the Doncaster is over the pairing method was the main reason for the blog.

Roman Koz

If you do not know all roads lead to Warrnambool racetrack for the next three days you must be from overseas or another planet. Back in the mid 1970's to the mid 1980's I made the annual pilgrimage (yes, it was like a religious experience) eleven years straight for all three days. This was a test of a man's stamina to depths I never knew I had until I passed with flying colours the first year. That was the year we stayed in a caravan park in Terang, a few kilometres out of Warrnambool, and on the first night the door of the caravan broke off it's hinges and all we could do was prop the door closed. We were unable to stop the wind whistling in and to say the nights were cold would have been an understatement but with alcoholic fortification, lack of sleep due to excessive card playing and journeys to the betting ring we actually managed quite well. I sort of knew how the Alaskan huskies survived by the end of the week. Over the next ten years any inconveniences like blizzards, pouring rain or mud up to your knees paled in significance to that first year.

To survive on the punt for three days was an art form as well as there were about 26 to 27 races to negotiate over the carnival not counting a few interstate races as well. Another art was to dodge the perennial "you couldn't loan me $20" so called friends who didn't mind spending our money but never had any themselves. In typical Damon Runyon style we liked to give those guys "the backs of our necks".
We soon learnt to back the wily jockey Neville Wilson each race especially on a front runner and there were several trainers we watched for if they made a trip from Melbourne. I met Neville one night at one of the pubs and he was a real gentleman: it was a pleasure to have the honour to meet him.We also had little savers on the local trainers and at times were staggered by the improvement of some of their runners from previous runs. We always backed the winner of the Brierly Steeplechase in the Grand Annual on the Thursday and had several collects though mostly we were backing or saving on the favourite. Another selection strategy was to back any horse backing up from the Tuesday that raced on the Thursday in the flat races.

One year this attack yielded the $70 winner of the Warrnambool Cup, Billingsford, trained by by Jack Baillie, a local trainer. I was not at the meeting that year but my screams of joy in the pub I was in at Caulfield were heard at the actual track! With this method do NOT worry about form as I can assure you Billingsford's run on the Tuesday was fairly ordinary. I will give you one more piece of advice if you are in any hotel on the main night, the Wednesday night. Watch for any jockeys partaking in a little too much of the amber fluid. One year it paid off when we watched one of the jumps jockeys rolling around on the floor at about 3am in quite a state. We were amazed to see him front up on the favourite in the first race at about 11.30 am so we backed the second and third favourite extensively. At every jump his mount ran off at the fences (I wonder why) and eventually one of ours strolled away to an impressive victory and all we did afterwards was praise our keen observation techniques. Never mind we could barely see past our own noses after copious amounts of alcohol had passed through our lips for the previous eight hours but that was Warrnambool when I was younger.

I was heartened to read about the return of the Punter's Podium at Randwick two weeks ago as it brought back a few nostalgic moments from the days I frequented the Randwick carnivals some years ago. I am not a big fan about handing over $20 and having someone bet for me but when Alan "Hats" Aitken was running the podium I always handed over a lazy red one. I had bought his book sometime before first seeing him in action and I realized this was a guy who knew the punting game properly. We had some collects and some flops but in the finish it was a line ball moneywise for yours truly but gee whizz it was fun. The number of people entranced and involved in the shenanigans was fantastic. On one of the days the Podium had struggled all day and went all out on the last race, struck gold and returned the punter several times their $20 outlay. Apparently the roar of the crowd increased several decibels in the last 50m. Sadly, it was one of the days when I wasn't there but that's racing.

The return of the Punters Podium is a positive move and cannot do the attendance at the track any harm at all. It is all about involvement and be able to spread the dollar just that fraction further: something we all need to do these days. It amazes me the race clubs do not have more fun punting events going at the track. Each weekend I enter a tipping contest in two hotels where I have to select a horse in each race. If I tip the winner I get 3 or 5 points (different points structure at both) for a winner, 2 or 3 points for second and 1 point for third and if I am the highest point scorer at the end of the day I win the pool. In one hotel it has to be won outright otherwise it jackpots to the following week while the other splits the pool by the number of highest point scorers. I love this type of contest as it gives me an interest in eight races for a $5 ticket and often in races I consider non bettable, such as two year old races with several first starters. There is nothing stopping such a contest occurring at the races. Again no harm will be done to the attendance figures. Can you imagine several hundred people pooling their money and the excitement in the last moments of the last race if you are one of the live chances. The word would soon get around about a tipping contest of that magnitude.

There can be all sorts of other contests or syndicates going as well. It can all add to the days experience so why isn't more done? I guess someone has to be paid to run it and perhaps the raceclubs would say some punters would only bet into this pool and not into the TAB's or the bookies thus robbing the club of revenue. Sadly, it is this sort of negativity that has racing on it's knees.

Based on the TAB Fixed Odds, using Thursday nights prices, there are 15 horses priced at 4/1 ($5.00) or less set to race at Randwick and quite a few of them present punters with problems. In Race 1 (Shannara $2.9, Flying Success $4.6, Zingaling $4.8), Race 2(Al Dhafra ($2.2, Euphemism $3.8) and Race 4 (Beneteau $4.2, Sasa $5.0) the horses listed have no form at the distance of each race. In Race 3 Gold Water ($3.2) stands out on form but has a tricky wide barrier to contend with while in Race 5 Rangirangdoo ($2.3) has yet to win at 2000m and is on a 7 day back up. In Race 8 Alverta ($3.2) has drawn barrier 10 from 11 runners, has not raced for 5 weeks and has a career record at the track and distance of 1 win from 5 runs. In the same race Ego's Dare ($5.0) is first up, though 2 from 3 first up is very good, while Informality ($5.0) is 2nd up from a lower class 1st up run. The only race where the runners quoted at 4/1 or less do not seem to have niggling worries is Race 7, the All Aged Stakes where Mic Mac ($3.6), Hot Danish ($3.6) and Danleigh ($4.2) stand out. See my previous blog re this great race.

It need to be said that every race mentioned can be won by one of the runners listed BUT it also needs to be said there are enough races around in the space of a week where you can back horses with less worries so why take the risk when there is always another day. I know Rangirangdoo was beaten by Theseo but another way to look at the form is that Rangi beat Speed Gifted, better known as a handicapper, in the 2000m wfa Ranvet, and that does not quite convince me as a value bet at $2.30. Al Dhafra, a most promising horse, attempts the 400m rise to 2000m for the first time but is it worth the risk at a tick over the toss of a coin. Hey, if both won by 4 lengths I would not be surprised but if both were beaten I would not be surprised either. I hate to be the bearer of negative thoughts but it is always worth thinking deeply about short odds on horses that have yet to be consistent winners under todays race conditions.

My apologies for not providing todays prices but as I write this at 7.30 a.m. all Sydney races have the suspended sign attached. I have a special breakfast to go to with one of my daughters in Melbourne this morning and need to be there quite early. Regardless, just be wary today.

Late addendum:

It is now 8am and it all becomes clearer. The scratchings of Rangirangdoo and Alverta render my comments there useless but keep the thoughts as to why I wrote them in mind.

One of the most absorbing races this weekend is the 1400m wfa All Aged Stakes mainly due to the decision punters have to make between Danleigh and Mic Mac. Danleigh has had 9 runs at wfa for four wins and one third with three of those wins at less than a length. His get back style means he just gets there but he gets there!!! Mic Mac has had 6 wfa runs for 1 win and two seconds. The bare stats show Danleigh is the better class horse however he has a couple of factors against him worth considering. Firstly, he is going to be giving Mic Mac about 4 lengths start as they straighten and secondly, he has never been on a 7 day backup. Both factors do not mean he cannot win but giving starts to top class horses is always fraught with betting danger and some horses cannot handle a seven day backup at this class level. If you add the fact that Mic Mac is unbeaten at 1400m from two runs and is also unbeaten second up from two runs (beat Whobegotyou easily at Caulfield) supporters of this horse have some genuine ammunition to call for a Danleigh defeat.

The race map for the race shows Mic Mac and Hot Danish are the only two runners who normally race near the lead. Personally, I would be amazed if Hugh Bowman, jockey of Mic Mac, would fight Hot Danish for the lead if Tim Clark decided he wanted the mighty mare to go to the front. If the pace is on early Nash Rawiller aboard Danleigh will have a smile that wide you will see it from the grandstand as he knows he has the strongest finisher in the race. This race is going to be an absolute corker and really revolves around the early sectionals which is all about patience, patience and even more patience and then who will crack first up the rise? Will T Clark wait those extra few meters Hot Danish will need at this level (she is 0 wins from 7 Group 1 attempts) or will he go for it and gamble on her outsprinting his rivals? When will H Bowman pressure Hot Danish, because he has to at some stage otherwise she will slip away, and when will N Rawiller decide to go? Bring it on - prerace this is the race of the carnival.

There are quite a few friends who pool their money each week into a betting syndicate. The general idea is to contribute $10, $20 or even more amongst half a dozen or more punters and each week one person bets as they wish. At the end of the year there is a split up and each punter walks away with a dollar amount that helps pay for Christmas presents or a trip away. Last year I watched one such syndicate lose about 30% of the years betting pool very closely because I was a member. Why did we lose so much?

Basically, each punter could bet any amount on any bet form and it was not uncommon for our $100 to be split into 5 bets of $10 each way on horses that paid $1.70 for the place. This year I suggested we should have a syndicate that bets $120 per week only on a trifecta at any meeting the weekly punter chose. I also suggested we take selections ABCD for the first position, add another two for second thus having ABCDEF and add another two for third therefore having ABCDEFGH. In discussions with the lads I said I expected us to collect 5 to 6 times per year out of the 43 weeks we would be betting and our success depended simply on the dividends.

Well, so far, we are losing much more than 30% and I am looking like General Custer who led his men to the slaughter called the Little Big Horn. Have I done the same thing punting wise? In the short term it sure looks like it but on Saturday I was at a mates place and his syndicate lost two bets before 1.30 pm and he was not a happy chappy. It wasn't the money, as like me it is a friends thing, but it was more the ad hoc approach taken. The key comment he made was that in all syndicates he had run over the past four or five years had either won or just lost because he "forced" them to have a "go", at odds, in one bet rather than spread the weekly amount available. So far this year they are losing quite handsomely in this particular syndicate (he has three going each week) and he is spitting chips.

I agree with his stance and this Saturday my syndicate nearly proved me right when one of the boys had a crack at the Doncaster. Sadly, for the syndicate, he had Road To Rock in the third position and if he had him for second (in his first six selections) we would have received a dividend around the $2000 mark and all of a sudden we would be all involved in a successful syndicate. I must admit to having been terribly disappointed in our bad luck, if you can call it that, for the guys involved because a couple of them aren't exactly keen punters but joined for the fun of it. I would have liked them to feel the winning experience. It has taken a few weeks for them to understand what the combinations were actually all about. We have been a fraction unlucky in that a couple of other excellent dividends around the $500- $600 mark have just been missed as well but as I told them, "that's punting".

When I see them this Friday all I can say is "keep the faith".