Welcome to Punters Corner with Roman Koz

There is no doubt Australia stands out as the country with the best sprinters in the world. In 2005 the Global Sprint Challenge series began as a series of six sprint races run in three countries: Australia (the Lightning Stakes and The Age Classic), England (King's Stand Stakes and Golden Jubilee Stakes) and Japan (Centaur Stakes and Sprinters Stakes). I have to admit when the series first began I was skeptical about Australia's involvement but this was more about me not knowing too much about the overseas sprinters. In Australia we have been used to reading or seeing replays of distance races that are traditional lead up races in the UK for the Melbourne Cup and, of course, our personal involvement in the Japan Cup. I cannot remember seeing any of the major Japanese or British sprint races bar on Sky Channel at odd times and even then I did not know the names of the key runners.

In 2006 the Hong Kong International Sprint was added to the series as was the July Cup (UK) in 2008 to make a grand total of eight. I have no doubt the USA, South Africa, New Zealand and Singapore will eventually join the fray to make this series even more of a challenge to the world's best sprinters. The challenge winners have been Cape Of Good Hope, Takeover Target, Miss Andretti, Apache Cat and Scenic Blast, respectively, from 2005 to 2009, and all things being equal we are in with a chance again after Nicconi's excellent Lightning Stakes win last Saturday.

In the past I have been highly critical of the massive shift whereby Australia is becoming a nation whose horses are sprinters as opposed to stayers as I grew up with the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup history from a young age. The Golden Slipper was always there as was the Blue Diamond, and that was fine, but now with the Magic Millions concept well and truly entrenched in our racing scene we will continue to be dominant in the sprinting world. The breeders are sprint oriented as are the buyers seeking a quick return for their investments and as a punter I do not have to contend with the stop start tactics of the staying races. With the likes of John Singleton and Gerry Harvey pushing for massive prizemoney increases towards sprint races for the Magic Million concept one wonders if one day the prizemoney for a sprint race will outstrip the prizemoney for the Melbourne Cup.

Years ago I would have laughed at such an idea but Australia is now the leading sprinting nation of the world and with the success of the overseas Global Sprint Challenge what is stopping the onslaught. Nothing but some imagination as far as I see it.

In the quest for a winner all punters should extend their thinking and searching wider than their normal parameters. It should go without saying, but it still needs reinforcing, that certain trainers should be closely watched when they venture interstate. Last Saturday followers of Peter Moody received a sensible price about Fairy Gem at Randwick following her good run the start before in Sydney. Many of Peter Moody's interstate runners are going to be in the market just because he trains them such is the status he has amongst punters however I am sure every now and then one really good priced winner is going to come along. It is up to the punter to decide what is a good price and also which trainers to follow.

This weekend Lee Freedman has entered two runners in the 1100m two year old event worth $48,000 to the winner while Gai Waterhouse has Kinnersley in the Tasmanian Derby worth $120,000 to the winner. Darren Weir, Robert Smerdon and Danny O'Brien have runners entered in the Derby as well. The 1200m WFA Fillies & Mares event, worth $60,000 to the winner, sees Luke Oliver, John Moloney, Steve Richards and Lee Freedman with runners.

I have not had time to have a good look at all the interstate runners in Tasmania this weekend but rest assured I will have by Saturday morning once the final fields are finalized. I may be guessing about the ability of a couple of the runners these travelling trainers have running but if the prices available remotely resemble value I am quite prepared to join their venture with a wager. As I stated earlier we punters need to extend our comfort zone in such situations as the trainer is offering us his opinion for free.

Many years ago there was a TV series called "Gomer Pyle" where the main character used the term "Gollee" whenever something surprised him or took his breath away. Last night my breath was taken away when Black Caviar strolled away from Here De Angels in an effort that seemed a minor extension to a track gallop. I didn't say "gollee" but instead used a blasphemous word starting with the letter "J" and just sat back somewhat stunned.

What has to be remembered is that Here De Angels is a top class open age sprinter quite capable of winning a Group 1 handicap and several wfa races. His record of 10 wins from 26 starts with 2 from 6 at the track and 4 from 10 at the distance is not to be sneezed at yet this fitter sprinter (pre race assumption) was treated with contempt by a 3 year old filly. To add to the doubt Black Caviar was coming back from an injury (dangerous to back horses like this in the long term) and was first up over 1200m (also dangerous depending on the circumstances).

As a bettor and layer on Betfair I am always looking for opportunities and here was an opportunity that needed consideration. I priced Black Caviar at $1.80 and was prepared to take her on at the $1.36 quoted earlier in the day but there is one thing I have learned about laying on Betfair worth passing on. If you take on lightly raced horses with obvious potential to rise to greater heights you are gambling . You do not know if that type of horse is going to become another true champion or just another promising runner that falls by the wayside. If you do take them on the price is all important and last night she was close to my assessment and wisely or luckily I stayed out of the laying side of the equation.

I had a small win bet on Here De Angels, as part of a target betting method I am using, and took a single, speculative trifecta with Royal Ida to run second and Black Caviar to run third. It was a cheap lesson.

One of the areas I have been interested in catching up with since my return from Europe is the new handicapping system in place in NSW called Benchmark. In this system each horse is weighted according to it's rating using the weight 58kg as the "benchmark".

In the form guide you will see a race called, for instance, BM (Benchmark) 80, which means that any horse rated 80 by the handicapper will instantly receive 58.0kg. Any horse rated higher is able to enter but will receive 0.5kg above the benchmark 58.0 kg for every 1 point thus a horse rated at 90 (10 points higher than the BM80 race rating) will receive an extra 5kg and will be weighted at 63.0kg. Naturally, the reverse occurs and a 70 rating horse (this time 10 points LOWER than the BM80 race rating) will receive 5 kg less than 58.0kg and will be weighted at 53.0kg.

This ratings/weighting process does not restrict the better class handicappers in NSW from racing in a weaker event as occurs in Victoria. For instance, in Victoria, in a race rated at 80 any horse rated at 81 or higher is ineligible whereas in a BM80 in Sydney that runner is eligible but would have to carry 58.5kg.

Personally, I like the idea of a classier horse racing against the weaker company with the extra weight, which of course can be lessened with a claiming apprentice, as I want to bet on the classier animals in the horse racing world. At present, in Victoria, I rarely bother with a BM80 or numbers close as I know these horses are not the class of animal I personally want to bet on. Obviously some tweaking will need to occur, for whatever reasons, but I suspect this approach is a winner for racing as it will increase betting turnover due to a better spread of prices especially when the classier horses are entered.

Although I have dabbled in the exotics in the past I have made it a bit of a mission to become much wiser in this area in 2010 and beyond, especially with trifectas and first fours. Over the Spring carnival I tackled a few races via the Flexibet option with a minimal loss. I should have done better, especially in the Emirates Stakes where I had the 40/1 winner in my A position, but due to not really studying just how many horses I should have had in the other positions I missed out around 2% of an $80,000 dividend. I can live with that as I was just experimenting but this year I have developed a chart for the Trifectas and First Fours to pinpoint mathematically how many horse I should have in each position.

For instance, with trifectas I am aiming to collect a Flexibet dividend of around 10% each time I get a collect. The formula I have worked out shows me in a field size of 12 I should be taking 4 horses in the A position, 6 horses in the B position and 8 horse in the C position thus I have ABCD, ABCDEF, ABCDEFGH which, if I have it worked out correctly, means I have 4x5x6 or 120 combinations. To get 10% of the trifecta dividend I would bet $12 on those combinations. Extending the mathematics to THE big one, the Melbourne Cup, I have calculated 8 in the A position, 12 in the B position and 16 in the C position which has 1386 combinations calling for an outlay of $139. For the other big one, the Caulfield Cup, which usually has 18 runners, I have 6 in the A position, 9 in the B position and 12 in the C position calling for $48 worth of bets for the 480 combinations.

I have gone quite wide as while in the testing stage with smaller amounts I want to at least get a collect and conserve the bank more than anything else. Time will tell if I am going too wide. So far this year I am losing but I was very close to getting an excellent return in the Perth Cup, for both the trifecta AND the first four if the favourite, Lords Ransom, had run second but that's the punt. The tide will go my way with the right price on top and the favourite 2nd or 3rd or even 4th and then my calculator will go into overdrive.

The publication of the nominations for major Autumn races always puts a spring in the step of the keen punter. Scanning the Australian Cup nominations I wonder to what level Heart Of Dreams, Purple, Road To Rock, Raffaello and Roman Emperor will reach and have we seen the bottom of Speed Gifted yet.? Can Lorne Dancer overcome his injury problems (he displayed some guts winning an ordinary handicap last Saturday) and what about the old warrior, Zipping: an Australian Cup is not out of reach for this marvel.

The Newmarket has me salivating about the younger brigade in Headway, Irish Lights, Nicconi,Avenue, Black Caviar, Denman and Eagle Falls just to name a few: which of these will kick on and which will fall by the wayside? Each week a new story, a new set of combinations and even an emerging star we may have glossed over will add to the enjoyment we punters will experience.

I note another huge pre post plunge is in the news with one punter plonking $18000 on the double Bank Robber (tonights Canterbury Classic) into Secession in the Blue Diamond Stakes to win $250000 at the odds of $14.30. There is an old saying the great racecaller Bert Bryant used to use: "where there's smoke there's blue cod" which translated means if someone is betting $18000 they are not doing so just for the exercise. Considering Bank Robber will be close to $2.00 tonight (he is $2.70 but betting is suspended no doubt to scratchings issues) and Secession is $5.50. $10 on Bank Robber (say 1/1) into Secession would return you $110 or 10/1 which is a bit over 2% of overs compared to the $14.30 taken.
Personally, I would back Bank Robber tonight and wait until Blue Diamond Stakes day if I were that punter but then again I am not that punter. We will know tonight at some time after 9pm.

One of the ways of making money at the racetrack is to become a bookmaker on Betfair, that is, you lay a horse to lose. Last Saturday a golden opportunity arose for Gold Coast layers in Race 8 when O'Lohnro started $2.50 SP favourite and was convincingly beaten.

At his first preparation he won twice and all of a sudden he was being hailed as a possible future star. Last preparation he was beaten 1st up, at 1200m, by the smart Swift Alliance but in the run began slowly and was wide on the turn to be beaten 0.4L. Second up he was beaten 0.75L ,at WFA, by the 3yo Trusting, who came from behind O'Lohnro, himself midfield early, conceding 8kg to the winner. Third run in he beat the mare Miss Marielle by 0.75L, who won her next two starts at WFA beating Pacino and Nom De Jeu, respectively. O'Lohnro's two runs before a spell were disappointing runs all things considered especially the unplaced run to Drumbeats when he was on the pace but weakened.

Last Saturday O'Lohnro was first up, but this time at 1400m, drawn 9 of 18 runners with 58.5kg in a handicap. I won't argue about the weight allotted but any sensible punter who had worked out O'Lohnro was not a fast beginner (every chance of being caught wide) nor had won second up over 1400m (fitness risk) should have realized he was worth gambling against.

Obviously some punters did not do their homework because after drifting from $3.20 to $4.20 he was sensationally backed to start $2.50. History may show him to become a really top class horse but on Saturday he was grossly under the odds.

Hi all
I am posting todays Pensioner Plan selections as normal however in the future I will be posting a monthly list of all the selections with the updated profit and loss figures. Those of you who have been following the process know what I am doing and how it all works so perhaps you can start to generate your own PP selections! This has all come about due to some changes in how I intend to use my time with the blogs and podcasts and freeing up some Saturday morning time. I intend to close the Pensioner Plan project just after this years Melbourne Cup carnival as by then we would have had a substantial number of occurrences to either prove or disprove the value of Plan 3. So far the Plan is looking ok but tough times will be ahead as bad runs must occur.
Here they are:

Plan 1:
Gold Coast 5-6-5-7-4-3-9-7-10-3
Randwick 2-3-9-5-1-5-5-1
Caulfield 5-6-2-6-4-8-1-5
Morphettville 3-1-5-2-9-8-3-6
Ascot 1-1-3-4-1-5-1-4

Plan 2:
Gold Coast R3 No 5 R6 No 3 R7 No9 R9 No 10 R10 No 3
Randwick R1 No 2 R4 No 5 R5 No 1
Caulfield R1 No 5 R3 No 2 R4 No 6 R6 No 8 R7 No 1
R8 No5
Morphettville R2 No 1 R7 No 3 R8 No 6
Ascot R1 No 1 R2 No 1 R4 No 4 R5 No 1 R6 No 5
R7 No 1

Plan 3
Gold Coast R3 No 5 R6 No 3 R7 No 9 R9 No 10
Randwick R1 No 2 R5 No 1
Caulfield R3 No 2
Morphettville R2 No 1 R7 No 3
Ascot R2 No 1 R4 No 4 R5 No 1 R6 No 5

Good luck
Roman Koz

The 2000m Listed Tattersall's Club Cup at Randwick on New Years Day is what I call my bread and butter type of race. I have long learned open company races of this type are where I can make money. I especially like this type of race if I have a firm opinion that one of the well fancied runners has several factors against it as if I am right then the other well fancied runners must be value.

The prepost betting in "The Sportsman" had Rabbuka at $2.80, Rainbow Styling at $2.90 and Spinney at $4.60 and I felt the market had it right as they were the top three I came up with as well in my initial "these are the chances" process. I felt the Ballargarney formline from the Gosford Cup and the defeat by Macknuckle in the Canberra Cup was not strong enough so I was down to two for the A position. A look at the chartform showed Rabbuka had 2 runs at 2000m for 1 second but I am aware at this distance you need to investigate further just to make sure about distances like 1900, or 2100m which can be omitted in some chartforms due to distance range factors. The real form showed Rabbuka had run at 1800m to 2400m eight times for 2 wins at 1800m and 1900m. A deeper look showed the 1900m win was in a Class 3 event, the 1800m win was third up (like today) when he beat Wittgenstein by 0.2L (a Class 5 winner the start before and the 2400m run was the run before a spell, which I usually forgive.

The fact was that although he had run some excellent on face value runs around 2000m he was still a 2000m maiden at this level. The run that made me risk him was the 2nd in Listed company behind the fairly good horse Ballack in Group 3 company in Queensland on May 09. On face value that should have been good enough for this race except for one key factor: it was Rabbuka's sixth run from a spell = rock hard fit yet he was beaten by Ballck who was 2nd up. Just on fitness alone Rabbuka should have finished ahead of Ballack. Here he was today 3rd up over 2000m with 58kg and he started to look a worry.

Rainbow Styling's fresh form (that's 1st and 2nd up to me) was an abysmal 0 from 9 but with 5 seconds buried in the statistics. If we eliminate those 9 runs we find the raw figures show 4 wins from 9 runs at his third run plus from a spell. His previous run, 3rd up was at 2000m (Rabbuka had won 3rd up at 1800m beating a Class 5 winner) beating an average horse in Delago Star (beaten 1.3L to Spinney in the Gosford Cup) but what swung me totally was his two runs around Joku (just won a Listed race in Doomben on Dec 26)last campaign when beating that runner by 1.3L over 1800m. It was the sort of form I want to see.and the result was just perfect: Rainbow Styling won and I laid Rabbuka on Betfair.

To some punters the $3.60 was just a well fancied horse price but on the above form lines $2.50 would not have been unreasonable in a race of few chances. The difference in percentages (27.7 versus 40.00) gave me what I thought was value.

Pensioner Plan selections
Hi all,
Due to the massive number of what I rate as lower level races I am not preparing any Pensioner Plan selections for today. Yesterdays meetings were basically the normal Saturday meetings just reversed to Friday because of New Years day. All will be back to normal next Saturday.
I am doing a very short podcast this morning as it is a metaphorical minefield out there today and personally I will only be having two bets and one of them will be only if the price is right.
See you next week

Roman Koz