Welcome to Costa's Turf with Costa Rolfe

I'll be keeping a real eye on the John O'Shea-trained FOXWEDGE in the lead-up to the Lightning Stakes in a fortnight. The handsome son of Fastnet Rock's desperately narrow second behind champion colt Sepoy in the Coolmore Stakes last spring would have been an agonizing result for connections, with a Group 1 win ensuring the future of Dr. Bateman's flagship galloper at stud. A half-head the other way and Foxwedge would have been worth many millions more than he already is.

As a result, securing that elusive Group 1 will be O'Shea's sole focus with this horse this campaign, and the Lightning might just be the most suitable race to target. Sepoy showed a hint of vulnerability up the Flemington straight despite still winning (admittedly he may have had enough at that stage of his preparation) and I think Foxwedge will really appreciate the 1000m straight course fresh. O'Shea prides himself on training his gallopers to the minute for big Group 1 assignments and I wouldn't be surprised if this talented colt will be fully wound-up for a first-up assault on the Lightning, with an extra couple of zeros attached to Foxwedge's price-tag the ultimate reward.

Having studied every runner in the TAB's first market, I have settled on my early 'Top 5' for this year's running of the Blue Diamond. 2yo form is obviously very difficult to line up and I have based my assessment more on the 'style' and potential for improvement in the exposed performances to date.

My top pick at this stage is Mick Price's More Than Ready filly SAMAREADY ($17). I though she was excellent on debut up the Flemington straight and really like the way she extended when asked for an effort. Mrs Gray took some ground off her in the run to the line but she wasn't knocked around by Newitt all and looked to my eye as if she could have won by a much bigger margin. The form has held up well enough with Mrs Gray running some excellent races against some of the other contending 2YO's. Mick Price is an excellent trainer of younger horses and I detected a fair amount of stable confidence about this girl in his post-race interview. Another huge plus is that she was immediately freshened after her debut with the Blue Diamond firmly in mind. At $17 Samaready represents a touch of value and should give us a good run for our money.

Tony McEvoy's JIMANDO ($6) showed some devastating acceleration in claiming the Debutants LR at Caulfield very impressively. He charged right away from them in the final 100m to win by 3.3L, defeating amongst others the easy Maribyrnong Plate (G3) winner Real Stolle. He looks quite bombproof and must go in.

HUSSOUSA ($13) put on a great display of sustained speed to lead the Gimcrack field before holding off Snipzu to win easily. You got the impression that there was plenty left up this Patinack filly's sleeve, scoring with plenty in reserve.

MEIDUNG ($6) looked great winning on debut for Peter Snowden at Rosehill, showing good tactical speed to share the lead at a strong tempo before demonstrating a strong kick in the straight.

I'll throw in ROLLING ZONE ($51) as my roughie. I really liked this Strategic colt's debut behind Cambiaso in the Maribyrnong Trial (LR) when he was badly help up between the 400m and the 200m. He was then found to be shin sore after failing when heavily supported behind Jimando in the Debutants (LR). Is definitely worth a ticket at that price if his problems are behind him...

I'll also be keeping an eye on Jim Conlan's nice filly RHANDARA ($51), who was very strong late on debut behind Applegate, and the well-bred unraced Waterhouse filly THE BROKEN SHORE ($31), who trialled stylishly.

Below are all the horses listed at $51 or under in the Blue Diamond market. I have tracked down the sales price (for the non-homebreds) where possible. Good luck to all those having an early speculative wager!

RACEWAY $4.40
More Than Ready x Claws; chestnut rig
Gai Waterhouse
1 start: 4L 1st of 11 over 1000m at Warwick Farm, defeating Agueda and Emperor Of Rome.

JIMANDO $6.00
Commands x Finko; bay colt
Tony McEvoy
Cost $50,000 at Magic Millions Premier
1 start: 3.3L 1st of 14 over 1000m at Caulfield (Debutants LR) defeating Princeton Miss and Planet Voyage.

MEIDUNG $6.00
Bernardini x Amish; bay filly
Peter Snowden
1 start: 2.8L 1st of 12 over 1100m at Rosehill, defeating Dances On Stars and Kyoto.

REAL STOLLE $9.00
Elusive Quality x Lemon Ruski; chestnut filly
John Thompson
2 starts: 5.4L 5th of 14 over 1000m at Caulfield (Debutants LR) behind Jimando; 1.3L 1st of 16 over 1000m at Flemington (Maribyrnong Plate G3), defeating Andre Roo Hoo and Magnus Reign.

CAMBIASO $10.00
More Than Ready x Flying Alpha; bay colt
Danny O'Brien
Cost $300,000 at Magic Millions Premier
1 start: 0.5L 1st of 13 over 1000m at Flemington (Maribyrnong Trial LR), defeating Imprimis and Little Red Corvette.

APPLEGATE $13.00
Exceed And Excel x Klamath Falls; bay filly
Peter Snowden
1 start: 0.1L 1st of 16 over 1000m at Flemington (Emirates LR), defeating Snitzerland and Alezan Thunder.

HUSSOUSA $13.00
Husson x Petousa; grey-brown filly
John Thompson
1 start: 1.5L first of 12 over 1000m at Randwick (Gimcrack LR), defeating Snipzu and Jade Marauder.

NO LOOKING BACK $15.00
Redoute's Choice x Mirror Mirror; bay filly
Gai Waterhouse
Cost $500,000 at Magic Millions Premier
2 starts: 0.8L 1st of 10 over 1000m at Warwick Farm, defeating Blazing Snitzel; 0.3L 2nd of 16 over 1200m at Gold Coast (Magic Millions 2YO Classic) behind Driefontein.

ARMED FOR ACTION $16.00
Exceed And Excel x Brave And Bold; bay filly
Anthony Freedman
Cost $90,000 at Australian Easter Yearling Sale
1 start: 3.8L 1st of 5 over 1000m at Mornington, defeating Road Trippin and Bern Bee.

SAMAREADY $17.00
More Than Ready x Samar; brown filly
Mick Price
Cost $150,000 at Australian Easter Yearling Sale
1 start: 1.3L 1st of 8 over 1000m at Flemington, defeating Mrs Gray and Alzora.

MEMBERS JOY $17.00
Hussonet x Rosa's Spur; grey filly
Robert Smerdon
Cost $85,000 at Magic Millions Premier
1 start: 2.5L 1st of 5 over 900m at Sandown, defeating Jacaranda Avenue and Mrs Gray.

RUSAMBO $21.00
Elusive Quality x Lobola; bay colt
Peter Snowden
2 starts: 1.5L 3rd of 11 over 1000m at Randwick (Breeders Plate G3) behind Pierro; 2.5L 2nd of 13 over 1000m at Randwick (Victory Vein) behind Amorino.

SESSIONS $21.00
Lonhro x Seances; brown colt
Peter Snowden
1 trial: 1st of 6 (0.5L) at Cant, defeating Rise To The Top and Ashokan.

MRS GRAY $26.00
Husson Lightning x Body Corporate; bay filly
David Hayes
Cost $95,000 at Western Australian Premier
4 starts (4-0-2-1): 1.3L 2nd of 8 over 1000m at Flemington behind Samaready; 1L 2nd of 13 over 1100m at Rosehill behind Amorino; 2L 5th of 16 over 1200m at Gold Coast (Magic Million 2YO Classic) behind Driefontein.

REPOUSSER $26.00
Choisir x Spurn; bay gelding
Byron Cozamanis
Cost $52,500 at Melbourne Premier
1 start: 0.8L 1st of 7 over 1000m at Moonee Valley, defeating Belisima.

SABIE $26.00
Exceed And Excel x Rondavel; chestnut filly
Anthony Freedman
2 starts: 5L 1st of 8 over 1000m at Cranbourne defeating Shivers; 2.5L 1st of 8 over 1000m at Moonee Valley, defeating Demasheen and Infinite Fortune
.
THE BROKEN SHORE $31.00
Hussonet x Shantha's Choice; chestnut filly
Gai Waterhouse
1 trial: 1st of 8 (3.3L) at Warwick Farm beating Gone Platinum.

AGUEDA $31.00
General Nediym x Smoothie; chestnut filly
Anthony Cummings
2 starts: 1.3L 3rd of 11 at Kembla Grange behind Genteel; 4L 2nd of 11 over 1000m at Warwick Farm behind Raceway.

TORMENTED $31.00
Charge Forward x Anapine; bay filly
Mark Kavanagh
Cost $160,000 at Australian Easter Yearling Sale
Unraced/no trials

TIMELY TRUCE $31.00
Brief Truce x Gal Express; bay gelding
Ricky Maund
2 starts: 1.5L 2nd of 9 over 1000m at Sandown (Merson Cooper LR) behind Maximus Moonard; 2.2L 4th of 8 over 1100m at Caulfield behind Ferment.

PIERRO $31.00
Lonhro x Miss Right Note; bay colt
Gai Waterhouse
Cost $230,000 at Magic Millions Premier
1 start: 0.2L 1st of 11 over 1000m at Randwick (Breeders Plate LR) beating Hidden Warrior and Rusambo.

FERRARI STAR $51.00
Testa Rossa x Star Hit; brown colt
Tony McEvoy
Cost $70,000 at Melbourne Premier
2 trials: 1st of 4 (1L) Murray Bridge; 3rd of 5 (btn 2.5L) Morph Parks behind Miss Intensus.

FAST AND LOOSE $51.00
Fastnet Rock x Siren Miss; bay filly
Mark Kavanagh
Cost $360,000 at Australian Easter Yearling Sale
1 start: 2.6L 5th of 8 over 1050m at Morphettville behind Little Ducati.

NARCISSUS $51.00
Exceed And Excel x Hasna; brown colt
Peter Snowden
Cost $290,000 at Australian Easter Yearling Sale
Unraced/no trials

MALASUN $51.00
Red Ransom x Malapert; bay filly
Mick Price
Cost $80,000 at Melbourne Premier
Unraced/no trials

LIBERTY ROCK $51.00
Rock Of Gibraltar x Staten Island; bay colt
Peter Moody
Cost $110,000 at Magic Millions Premier
Unraced/no trials

ZUMOOROODA $51.00
Encosta de Lago x Murjana; bay filly
Mick Price
Unraced/no trials

STRIVE TO EXCEL $51.00
Redoute's Choice x Suggestive; bay colt
Peter Moody
Cost $600,000 at Australian Easter Yearling Sale
Unraced/no trials

SEASIDE $51.00
Redoute's Choice x Living Spirit; bay filly
Peter Snowden
Unraced/no trials

TUSCAN HAZE $51.00
Flying Spur x Halibery; bay filly
Mick Price
Unraced/no trials

ZAHEE $51.00
Dylan Thomas x Zaheeya; bay colt
Mick Price
Unraced/no trials

WINGARA $51.00
Encosta de Lago x In The Past; bay colt
Peter Moody
Cost $200,000 at the Australian Easter Yearling Sale
Unraced/no trials

ROLLING ZONE $51.00
Strategic x Honest; bay colt
John Sadler
Cost $25,000 at Magic Millions Winter Weanling Sale
2 starts: 2.5L 5th of 13 over 1000m at Flemington (Maribyrnong Trial LR) behind Cambiaso (held up badly); 11L 13th of 16 over 1000m at Caulfield (Debutants LR) behind Jimando (pulled up shin sore).

PRINCETON MISS $51.00
Not A Single Doubt x Karalee; bay filly
Robbie Griffiths
Cost $150,000 at Magic Millions Summer Sale
2 starts: 3.3L 2nd of 14 over 1000m at Caulfield (Debutantes LR) behind Jimando; 11.1L

PRINCESS ROYALE $51.00
Casino Prince x Charybdis; bay filly
Cost $85,000 at Magic Millions Premier
Unraced/no trials

PRONTO PRONTO $51.00
Snitzel x Teresa; bay colt
Jason Warren
Cost $160,000 at New Zealand Premier
Unraced/no trials

RHANDARA $51.00
Redoute's Choice x Bhandara; bay filly
Jim Conlan
Cost $430,000 at Australian Easter Yearling Sale
1 start: 1.5L 4th of 16 over 1000m at Flemington (Emirates LR) behind Applegate. Made strong late ground from well back.

RECRIMINATE $51.00
Redoute's Choice x Castellina; brown colt
Mick Price
Cost $70,000 at Melbourne Premier
Unraced/no trials

EXIMIUS $51.00
Exceed And Excel x Allegra; chestnut colt
Mick Price
Cost $100,000 at Melbourne Premier
Unraced/no trials

CAVES $51.00
Bernardini x From The Cellar; bay filly
Anthony Freedman
Unraced/no trials

BUSH AVIATOR $51.00
Stratum x Sister Patricia; chestnut colt
Danny O'Brien
Cost $140,000 at Magic Millions Premier
Unraced/no trials

AL ANEED $51.00
More Than Ready x Al Anood; bay colt
Mick Price
Unraced/no trials

ANDRE ROO HOO $51.00
Written Tycoon x Solar Song; chestnut colt
Robbie Lang
2 starts: 1.3L 2nd of 16 over 1000m at Flemington (Maribyrnong Plate G3) behind Real Stolle; 1.6L 3rd of 9 over 1000m at Sandown (Merson Cooper LR) behind Maximus Moonard.

DEAR DEMI $51.00
Dehere x Shirley; bay filly
Clarry Connors
Cost $130,000 at Magic Millions Premier
3 starts (3-0-0-1): latest 6.6L 4th of 11 over 1000m at WFarm behind Raceway.

BERN BEE $51.00
Bernardini x Oshi; bay colt
Mark Kavanagh
1 start: 9.8L 3rd of 5 over 1005m at Mornington behind Armed For Action.

BEAUFORT $51.00
Exceed And Excel x Whistles; bay colt
Peter Snowden
Unraced/no trials

BOOM BABY BOOM $51.00
Shaft x Mondo Rock; bay gelding
Anthony Freedman
Cost $35,000 at Magic Millions Summer Sale
Unraced/no trials

DEB'S DELIGHT $51.00
Lonhro x Assertive Sound; brown filly
Peter Moody
Cost $280,000 at Melbourne Premier
Unraced/no trials

DANGER CLOSE $51.00
Written Tycoon x Galactic Honour; bay colt
Jason Warren
Cost $36,000 at Autumn Yearling Sale (Inglis VIC)
Unraced/no trials

COLLIDE $51.00
Bradbury's Luck x Oh Best Beloved; grey gelding
David Hayes
Cost $36,000 at Magic Millions Summer Sale
1 trial: 1st of 6 (2.5L) at Bendigo, defeating The Ancient Order and Sylvan Arc.

LITTLE CRITTER $51.00
Court Command x Gotha; bay colt
Tony McEvoy
Cost $40,000 at Magic Millions Premier
5 starts: (5-1-2-0); latest 15.9L 15th of 16 over 1200m at Gold Coast (Magic Millions Classic) behind Driefontein.

COINS $51.00
Hard Spun x Monetary; bay filly
Peter Snowden
1 start: 2L 4th of 9 over 1000m at Sandown (Merson Cooper LR) behind Maximus Moonard. Featured heavily in stewards report.

COMMANDING JEWEL $51.00
Commands x Regard; brown filly
Leon Corstens
Cost $205,000 at Magic Millions Premier
Unraced/no trials

CLINTON AFFAIR $51.00
Snitzel x Watch My Lips; brown colt
Peter Moody
Cost $80,000 at Melbourne Premier
Unraced/no trials

Greetings all!

I make my triumphant return this fine evening after a hiatus of sorts (prison food really isn't as bad as popular culture would have you believe...), excitedly anticipating the return of some quality gallopers as they strive for a share in the rapidly approaching mid-summer/autumn riches. I'll be posting my comprehensive early preview of the 2012 Blue Diamond Stakes tomorrow afternoon, but first, here are a trio of horses that I've got my eye on for the autumn:

MOMENT OF CHANGE
This 3yo looked extremely good in his pair of spring appearances, and I think Peter Moody did the right thing for the horse's future in bypassing the Caulfield Guineas. The son of Barely A Moment strolled home on debut at Murtoa, destroying a moderate field by 10L. Impressive wins are commonplace when Moody juveniles step out for their first race start in the country, but it was the commanding nature of his next outing that suggests Moment Of Change has the makings of a top-liner. Over 1300m at Sandown, Linda Meech again led the field before slipping clear to win by 3.8L with ridiculous ease, leaving subsequent Caulfield winner and stakes-competitive Meethaq wallowing in his wake. Moment Of Change was barely asked for an effort that day and he most certainly appears 'untapped'. The trainer cited maturity issues when opting to bypass the Guineas, but the autumn version of that race should be firmly on the agenda this preparation. A most exciting prospect.

MANAWANUI
It doesn't take a genius to recognise the immense talent within Manawanui, but I think he can emerge as a genuine weight-for-age force in the spring. Indeed, Ron Leemon's gelding is my very early tip for the Cox Plate. Though he didn't quite stay the journey of the Derby, his run in the AAMI Vase was ultra-impressive (albeit against a poor field), and based on that performance I think he could have given Pinker Pinker's Cox Plate a shake with no weight on his back. Connections will take aim at Australia's weight-for-age championship this year, however, and so they should, as this horse definitely possesses the turn of foot required to win at the highest level. Leemon has indicated that Manawanui will have only a light autumn, with the Cox Plate the only real aim for the year. Despite not being set for the autumn, he sprints so well fresh that I'll be backing him anyway...

METALLURGICAL
Perhaps an odd choice given he has failed to win a stakes race from 5 attempts, but this beautifully-bred son of Redoute's Choice (out of Lady Capel) has been getting better and better with age. The $2,200,000 purchase showed only moderate ability in his first couple of campaigns but really started to hit his straps last winter, running a trio of slashing seconds in stakes grade in Queensland before running an ENORMOUS race in the G2 Salinger Stakes during the spring carnival. He finished 4th behind Sister Madly - beaten 1L - but never really saw daylight and couldn't unleash his big sprint. On that performance, Metallurgical would have to come into contention in some of the feature autumn sprints (the one's Black Caviar isn't contesting, of course). I'm not sure what plans John Thompson has for this galloper (or even if he'll be campaigning this autumn), but the 5yo's style of racing looks very much suited to the Flemington straight. Perhaps a Newmarket Handicap isn't out of the question? Definitely worth a speculative wager in early markets if he shows up...

Others to follow this autumn are STREAMA (class filly), SOFT SAND (could be anything!) and the desperately unlucky Victoria Derby runner-up INDUNA (should he follow the AJC Derby trail). I will be posting weekly from here on in so be sure to check in regularly!

The Western Australian Turf Club have poured plenty of money into their Group 1 races of late, and though they haven't managed to attract any genuine 'A graders' from the eastern states this time around, the turn-out remains solid. Kiwi He's Remarkable, Victorian Avienus and the Adelaide-based Spacecraft add an extra dimension to the G1 Railway Stakes. Last year, the unpredictable Tale of the Cat gelding Gathering afforded Patinack Farm a rare Group 1 win with his runaway win, leading all the way under Craig Williams. Some very well credentialed eastern states gallopers, including Trusting, Black Piranha and Sniper's Bullet, were among the well-beaten brigade. It is the locals, however, who appear to be holding all the aces this year. Grant Williams' 5yo Ranger deserves favouritism after his brilliant performance in the G2 Lee Steere over 1400m, charging home out wide from near last to win by a widening 2L. The son of Testa Rossa will find some stiff opposition in the form of rising star Luckygray, however. This horse really could be anything, absolutely murdering a G3 field in the Asian Beau over 1400m. The flashy grey has won 6 out of 8 and looks very much like a Group 1 horse.

With the added bonus of the G1 Winterbottom Stakes and a good competitive WA Guineas, Saturday out west looks the perfect tonic to forget the horrors of the carnival just gone, and focus on a new one.

On Melbourne Cup day 2012, I propose that Australia unites against the staying peril from abroad that threatens to overwhelm our nation's greatest horserace. Across the oceans they come for us, come to steal our gold with their superior thoroughbreds, and our women with their effortless class and names like Christophe and Alain. In this year's Melbourne Cup, the first seven horses over the line had not set foot on this big island before this spring (last year's French victor excluded). The much improved Niwot was the only galloper to fly the Aussie colours, running out of his skin for eighth (and his father's an Irishman anyway!). Indeed, if Niwot is this cavalry's most feared warhorse, then our children's future looks decidedly grim... So instead of waiting for the big studs to finally breed a half decent stayer (or annex one from New Zealand and claim it as our own), it's time for the people to take matters into their own filthy hands. That's right, the peasants are revolting. Viva la revolucion!

My proposal is thus:

Instead of wasting your token $5 on next year's Cup day office or barbeque sweep, I suggest every Australian adult instead donates their sweep cash to my National Stayers Fund. The money within will then be used to pay the service fees of the best staying sires in Australia and New Zealand (if any of these mythical white creatures - complete with long, pointed, spiraling horn - do, in fact, exist). $5 from just 15 million parochial Australians, for example, would net $75,000,000 for our coffers. At $100,000 per tryst, that's enough for 750 individual Zabeel matings (although we wouldn't obviously ask that much of the old chap in one frenetic season). A handpicked panel, including myself and Francesca Cumani, will select the local mares best suited to producing the finest possible stayers out of these couplings, and with the offer of a free service and a better future for this nation, we must hope that the breeders embrace our concept and duly accept (said offer will be articulated in the standard Godfather 'brains/signature on contract' methodology). We shall then sit back and wait, for few Melbourne Cups have been won without patience. No National Stayers Fund horses shall race at two, with only the most developed being afforded light preparations up to a mile and a quarter in their three-year-old year. Our army of dour horseflesh shall subsist on the finest feed and be led by strapper Robert Duval on bridles of finely spun gold (we will take Macedon Lodge by force if we have to). Ride of the Valkyries will be played into their barns 24 hours a day. All National Stayers Fund horses are to be trained by Mick Kent, with Glen Boss receiving the pick of the mounts.

As a people, we must act now and embrace the National Stayers Fund. Fight the battle that must be fought; build the dikes of courage. It is my greatest hope that one of our graduates will progress sufficiently to peak on the first Tuesday in November, 2018, and so reclaim national pride with a single crushing blow against the marauders. "Yes we can."

Having heavily invested on Helmet in opening Guineas markets (and with a pretty solid crack at an early Guineas-Cox Plate double to boot), you could say I was slightly agitated as the gates crashed back at Caulfield to decide the big Group 1 at 3.20pm. That's because I wasn't on course or in front of a television, but instead standing before the altar at St Michaels church in Collins Street, one eye trained on the groom in order to make sure he didn't make a sudden last-ditch bid for freedom, the other firmly focused on the chapel door. Marooned in front of the steadily building crowd whilst waiting for the bride to arrive in my role as one of two best men, I had prearranged for a couple of other guests to listen to the Guineas and report back the result by enacting some sign language from the back of the room. I had been tempted to ask the groom whether I might be permitted to duck out and join the others, but the terror in his eyes told me that now was not the time to leave him...

As the groom craned his neck towards the entrance, eyes burning a hole in the door waiting for that magical first glimpse of his bride, I too strained with anticipation for that first (hopefully) wondrous appearance of Jack and Dave. Helmet was racing in their interests, too, and I would instantly know by the look on their faces whether or not the son of Exceed and Excel had got the job done. It is a nerve-wracking experience indeed having a significant investment on a race and not being able to watch, or at least listen to, it. My Year 12 English literature exam happened to fall at the same time as the 2002 Crown Oaks were being run, and I was more anxious about how the $14 Bulla Borghese would go (whom I considered a sure thing!) than the troubled tragic grandeur of Antony and Cleopatra. Bulla Borghese at least proved my reading of that vexing text called the 'formguide' correct that year...

Back at the wedding, tears of joy were shed when finally, the organ piped up and Jack and Dave stormed the church making wild 'helmet' gestures above and around their heads, just in time to see the bride appear and steal her day's first look at the blushing groom (he had nearly passed out on multiple occasions and was looking decidedly flustered). Do I want Helmet to win the Cox Plate? I do.

The early VRC Oaks markets certainly make for interesting reading. Atlantic Jewel could not have been more impressive in her two most recent wins but she has come up $3.60, and certainly doesn't look certain to run out the 2500m. I'll be looking for some fillies that look better suited to the trip.

My current top-pick is DOWAGER QUEEN ($26), pending how she runs in the G1 Flight tomorrow, of course! I thought she ran a nice race behind Streama in the Tea Rose, getting well back but finding the line well in a race of unsuitably slow tempo. She has put together a very good record racing over sprint-mile distances and I have a suspicion she might flourish over further. She is definitely in the right stable to do so, with the Rogerson's normally having a good handle on their staying juveniles. Definitely one to keep an eye on at a price.

I haven't yet given up on Darley's EURYALE ($21) putting it all together this preparation. She had absolutely no luck second-up over 1400m behind Atlantic Jewel, pretty much going to the line under her own steam having been blocked for a run throughout the straight. She looked strong winning the 1600m Gibson Carmichael at Flemington in the autumn and I am hopeful that she will start improving as the distances stretch out. I expect her to be hitting the line very strongly in the 1600m Chester Manifold on Sunday (Flemington should suit!) and think she is definitely worth a cheeky Oaks bet at the current price.

OUR MISS JONES ($8) is another from the yard of a good trainer of stayers who appears to be crying out for further. She has hit the line strongly in each of her three runs and should at the very least relish a strong mile. Mick Kent has her ticking along beautifully and I would be very surprised if her ultimate aim isn't the Oaks. This daughter of Darci Brahma has been well-found in the market but she is my current top-pick of the early fancies.

BLISS STREET ($10) continues to do nothing wrong but is also looking a little skinny at her current quote, whilst one at a bit of a price might be Our Miss Jones' stablemate PENTIMENTO ($41), who looked quite promising winning over the unusual debut distance of 1750m (she really looks like she'll stay all day).

Finally, good luck all before a truly wonderful weekend's racing, and may So You Think prove his class to the world once again in the Arc!

Derby and Oaks nominations are in, so lets see if we can unearth a few three-year-olds that might be worth an early wager. So which youngsters will be best suited by the 2500m? For the Victoria Derby, my top pick at this early stage is the impressive Leon Corstens-trained colt Zabeelionaire ($12). As his name would suggest, this exciting prospect is by the champion sire of stayers Zabeel. He also just happens to be out of a Carnegie mare, so on pedigree alone he should be suited by the taxing distance. His first start was in the listed McKenzie Stakes at Moonee Valley over 1200m, where he was slowest away and settled last in a field of 12. Zabeelionaire got home along the rails very nicely, however, and gave every indication that he would improve when allowed to compete over more ground. And improve he did out to 1500m (again at the Valley), flying home late behind Whisper Downs in a really eye-catching performance. He ran right away from the well-performed Costly Commitment in the final stages. This horse gives every impression that he will continue to get stronger as the distances get longer and I look forward to monitoring his progress this campaign. It will be especially interesting to see how Zabeelionaire fares away from Moonee Valley, as one would expect a bigger track like Flemington would suit him perfectly.

Another galloper I'm keen on from a Derby perspective is the South Australian-trained colt Perfect Punch ($51). This son of Starcraft has one win and two thirds from his short three-start career, and is trained (in part, at least) by Leon Macdonald, who is no stranger to Victoria Derby success. After his debut behind the impressive Niconoise over 1200m - when he really ground home doggedly for third - I immediately made a note that this bloke would be suited by a lot further. He put in another late closing effort for third over 1200m before breaking his maiden at Gawler when extended out to 1500m. He looked pretty dour that day and didn't win by much, but it was still a nice enough effort with longer distances in mind. Perfect Punch is nominated for a 1600m race against some far superior company this Saturday at Morphetville, so if he accepts and runs a good race it should be a good guide to his Derby prospects. Perhaps he's worth an early speculator at a good price regardless... Having just reexamined Perfect Punch's last video, you could probably do worse than have something small on fellow South Australian Son Of Caesar ($201), too! This bloke ran a great race at Gawler after hopelessly missing the start by 5 lengths. The son of Holy Roman Emperor also badly missed the start by a similarly hopeless margin at his previous run but still stormed home for third, beaten just one length in the end. He is nominated for the same race as Perfect Punch this Saturday, so hopefully he can improve his barrier manners and give us a truer gauge on what sort of ability he's got.

As mentioned last week, I'll also be keen to see how Collar ($21) measures up in higher grade. He's bred for this sort of race and I didn't mind how he found the line behind Moment of Change last time. I think he'll definitely prove to be one worth following as the trips get longer. Stablemate Salter ($17) and Robbie Laing's Pentire colt Scelto ($26) were both good behind Costly Commitment over 1700m at Caulfield and I definitely have them in the mix too.

It can be very rewarding identifying a staying type early and following them as they slowly progress to eventual riches, so hopefully one of those horses goes on to bigger things! My early thoughts on the VRC Oaks will be posted later this week.

Could we see this season's Victoria Derby winner step out in a 0-72 at Sandown tomorrow? Well we might not, given that Collar represents the nomination-happy Team Williams and has been entered in several thousand other races in the next few days. Ability-wise, however, I think this exciting three-year-old has what it takes to excel over the Flemington 2500m. He's certainly bred to do just that, being by wonderful Kiwi staying sire O'Reilly out of narrow Caulfield Cup runner-up Laebeel (damn you Sky Heights, I was on for plenty!). Collar looked an outstanding prospect winning the Elvstroem Classic by 3.3L. And though it appear that he didn't beat much, he's certainly joined some decent company with the 'Circles of Gold contingent' Elvstroem, Haradasun and Altius all claiming the Swan Hill 1300m event on debut.

Should he line up tomorrow, Collar meets boom Moody galloper Moment Of Change, whose 10-length debut romp at Murtoa set tongues wagging and saw Guineas prices slashed. Though Moment Of Change might well prove a little too speedy for Collar tomorrow, I'll be following the Williams horse throughout the spring, and hopefully all the way to the Victoria Derby.

In the racing game, it is virtually accepted as fact that jockeys are the worst judges. I did find the comments of Glen Boss in the aftermath of Smart Missile's impressive Run to the Rose win, however, quite interesting. When describing the colt's devastating final sectional on Racing Review, Boss referenced the incredible Caulfield Guineas of 2005, when God's Own came from a seemingly impossible position to nail Paratroopers right on the post. This win is without doubt one of my favourite racing moments of all time, so my interest naturally piqued, I put down the Giacometti 'L'Homme qui marche I' exact replica I was fashioning, leaned forward in my chair and listened a little closer to what Bossy had to say (all the while trying not to be distracted by the gargantuan silver pendant/breastplate decorating his chest).

And indeed, his comments made me look at that famous race from a completely different perspective: though God's Own was undeniably motoring home, according to Boss the win only appeared to be as freakish as it was because Paratroopers was running on absolute empty in the final 100m. Although perhaps obvious to most people, over all these years of watching that great race on Youtube I have previously been oblivious to the fact that Paratroopers was going up and down on the one spot and virtually walking to the line - probably because I'd had my eyes fixed on God's Own's torrid passage back in the field for the duration - and been unable to fathom the speed with which the son of Redoute's Choice attacked the line. But sure enough, when I watched it again, it was plain as day that the leader really shortened stride approaching the line, thus making an already mind-blowing win look completely out of this world. It's funny how the manner in which one views a race can change even six years on... I wonder if we'll be talking about a Helmet v Smart Missile Guineas that far down the road?