Welcome to Costa's Turf with Costa Rolfe

Here is an extract from my latest article on some of Australia's most astute smaller training operations. Read the full article in the upcoming edition of PPM...

The devastating win of Qfighter, a hulking grey 2yo who destroyed them on debut over 900m at the Gold Coast (19th May), is just one example of the steady flow of winners emanating from the Matthew Dunn stable. Based at Murwillumbah nudging the Queensland border, Dunn is another young trainer on the rise, having learnt much of his craft under the tutelage of Gerald Ryan. Ryan himself is held in high regard as one of the best trainers of 2yo's, as well as an excellent judge of a yearling, and it appears both of these qualities have rubbed off on his one-time employee. Dunn has assembled quite a large and formidable team for a 'lesser known' trainer, but the investments have borne good results. Qfighter was backed off the map at the Gold Coast when hammered in from 4's to a prohibitive $1.60, indicative not only of a stable most confident in their horses, but of one able to keep a secret... It would have been all too easy to let slip that the team had such a nice 2yo working the house down at home, but the fact that the bagmen opened Qfighter at such an appealing price suggests that this is a stable the punters might be able to extract maximum value from.

As well as his grey flying machine - who could certainly prove one for the future - Dunn has plenty of other quality horseflesh to work with, among it the Group class filly Hidden Jewel and the well-performed former Sydney galloper Dusty Gold. This season Dunn has reeled off 48 winners (at predominately sprinting trips) at an excellent strike rate of 19% (having been striking at 23% until December), with a small profit on turnover of 3.3% rewarding followers of the yard. Given the head trainer's relative youth and apparent talent, the Dunn stable will almost certainly continue to build on these impressive stats and can be a punters pal for many years to come.

So how about a couple of long-range tips for the Queensland winter, the last chance to dabble in some decent futures markets until the spring?

I've got my eye on a couple of Mike Moroney's runners. Although no concrete plans have been revealed for these two gallopers, this stable are certainly not adverse to taking a big team up north for the winter, so all going well they could both very well bob up in Queensland.

In the Queensland Oaks, CRIMSON LADY looms as a very nice chance at the $16 currently on offer. This daughter of Volskraad was fantastic in the 2000m Oaks at Morphettville, making fantastic ground from last for a 2.6L 5th of 16, despite copping interference at critical stages in the straight. She is nominated for a 1600m race at Caulfield this Saturday, but the Doomben Roses and then the Oaks do loom as a logical target for a promising staying filly. Based on her Adelaide run, the Oaks trip should suit her down to the ground, so hopefully Moroney presses on with her.

The other perhaps more speculative selection is a 2yo colt named MURCIELAGA, who was most impressive winning on debut at Warrnambool over the carnival. This son of Testa Rossa relished the heavy going to run away an effortless 3L winner and though he most likely only defeated a moderate bunch, he appeals as a cheeky TJ Smith horse. The fact that he has already demonstrated a liking for soft ground should hold him in good stead should he end up tackling a Queensland campaign, given the proliferation of wet tracks recently, and I am confident he will get the mile. The fact that this Moroney galloper was heavily backed on debut might also point to a far degree of stable confidence in his ability, so if Queensland does end up on the agenda a strong showing is certainly not out of the question. Murcielaga is currently listed as a $35.00/$9.50 chance for the TJ Smith so definitely keep an eye on him if he reappears on the racetrack any time soon.

As for the Strabroke Handicap, you'd be mad to have a bet now given the ridiculous odds currently on offer about the top chances, but I've got a feeling that PAMPELONNE ($11) is going to prove himself a very, very good horse.

There's been no sign of cider at Tulloch Lodge - only champagne - after an utterly dominant autumn carnival. Pierro's golden run, Laser Hawk's emergence, More Joyous' greatest triumph and a string of minor race successes has once again catapulted Gai Waterhouse to the forefront of punter's minds, reminding all and sundry just how good a trainer this woman is. Sure, it came with the typical Gai bravado - 'There is no possible way this horse can lose,'; 'I'd be very surprised if my three don't run the trifecta and space fourth' - but the fact is she backed up her bluster with results on the track. You've got to love the fact that Waterhouse runners get the services of N Rawiller and are generally ridden forward and out of trouble. Pretty simply, Gai is a big race performer, with her horses generally possessed of the requisite Group 1 profile, and she commands respect at this time of year. Who's to say she won't finish with a parting shot or two this weekend, with the Triple Crown looking to be at Pierro's mercy and More Joyous favourite for another Group 1?

Elsewhere, first markets have just been released for the SA Derby. We've gone okay this autumn, selecting SAMAREADY on top for the Blue Diamond at $17 and ETHIOPIA as the best roughie for the ATC Derby at 50's, so perhaps have a little something on Team Williams' PRACTICED at the $11 on offer. He was badly held up whilst Vatuvei was busy making a winning run at Flemington on Anzac Day and looks in the race up to his ears.

TAB Sportsbet's first markets are up for the Australian Derby, so in which progressive three-year-olds does the value reside? At this stage I simply can't go past Victoria Derby runner-up INDUNA, at what appears to be a most luxurious price of $17. This son of Elusive Quality and the excellent staying mare Camarena could not have been more unlucky in the 2500m Flemington classic, buffeted from pillar to post before just failing to run down Sangster, who had pinched a winning break whilst the Darley runner was attempting to start his run unimpeded. It was simply a huge run and he should have won easily. Induna ran second-last of 12 first-up in the Hobartville and will probably run ingloriously in the Randwick Guineas tomorrow, but as soon as he gets to 2000m+ will really start to hit his straps. In the lead-up to the Victoria Derby, he won his maiden at Gosford over 2100m by over 6 lengths before destroying an average bunch in the 2200m by 3.5L running away. I am a big fan of this gelding and look forward to seeing how his preparation unfolds as the distances increase.

My second pick has to be gun Kiwi filly SILENT ACHIEVER ($9). I think Roger James has a truly special horse on his hands here with this daughter of O'Reilly (what a fantastic sire of stayers O'Reilly is!), and am very confident she will be the one to beat in anything she contests this autumn. She brained the boys in the New Zealand Derby and was too good for Randwick Guineas contender Ocean Park in the Waikato Guineas. SILENT ACHIEVER is 5 wins from 7 starts and will give it a mighty shake should she head to the Derby. The New Zealand form generally stands up in these autumn races, too.

The wraps on LASER HAWK ($13) are big and I think he could shape as a genuine Derby contender. I do have slight doubts about his stamina (Artie Schiller?) but from what I've seen so far, he might just be top-class. Derbies and Oaks are often won on sheer class alone, so definitely keep this hulking half to champion middle distance galloper Desert War safe.

I've also got a bit of time for Bede Murray's DARCI BE GOOD ($26) and think he might be in store for a nice preparation. He was excellent behind Doctor Doom in the Spring Champion over 2000m last October and is another that will put his best foot forward over those longer trips.

For a roughie, I'll throw in ETHIOPIA ($51). We'll see how he goes in the Alistair Clark at Moonee Valley tonight, but Pat Carey certainly hasn't been afraid to target the AJC Derby in the past and I think the big one could definitely be on the son of Helenus' agenda. This gelding is only very lightly raced, with just two starts to his name to date, but the manner in which he graduated from a third in a Sale maiden to run a competitive third in the G2 Autumn Classic over 1800m at Caulfield suggests better things might be in store. Carey is clearly adept at getting the best out of sons of Helenus (Cedarburg; Ulundi) and Ethiopia is certainly worth a speculator at those odds.

EARLY SELECTIONS:

1. INDUNA ($17)
2. SILENT ACHIEVER ($9)
3. DARCI BE GOOD ($26)

A few eyebrows may have been raised when yet another 'half-brother to a champion!' was knocked down for $1.025 million at the Australian Easter Yearling Sale last year. After all, the $27,500-fee Casino Prince is altogether unproven as a sire. The dam in question does goes alright however - having thrown a nice sprinting filly by the name of Black Caviar - but more often than not in this game one family member seems to 'hog' all the quality, with far more million dollar yearlings busting than doubling-up.

But when the buyer was revealed, things made far more sense. In one fell swoop, Nathan Tinkler ensured some great promotion for a young stallion Patinack Farm hold high hopes for by securing the publicity that accompanies a sale-topper. And after an ultra-impressive debut win in the listed Talindert Stakes on Saturday, Tinkler already has not only a possible flagship horse for Casino Prince but another valuable stallion prospect on his hands, a value that looks set to soar beyond seven figures should ALL TOO HARD live up to that run in the future. I, for one, am extremely confident that he will. I loved the way this colt extended in the run to the line at Flemington and can see him emerging as a genuine Group 1 force later in the autumn, with the Sires Produce or Champagne Stakes perhaps the most suitable targets. Very rarely do the younger relatives of champions live up to the hype on the track (admittedly, unless All Too Hard wins 20 races in a row, he'll forever be in his big sister's hulking shadow!), but I think this exciting colt will more than justify the dramatic bidding war waged to secure his ownership. Team Hawkes have pledged to take All Too Hard along slowly and were immediately dismissive of any suggestion that the Blue Diamond should be on the agenda, which should hold him in even better stead for the autumn.

Another to watch for in the 2yo Triple Crown in Sydney might be Chris Waller's filly JADE MARAUDER. She is also very well-related (by Fastnet Rock and a half-sister to the talented Western Australian filly BLISS STREET) and an excellent late-closing run last start suggests that the longer sprints will be her go.

I'll be keeping a real eye on the John O'Shea-trained FOXWEDGE in the lead-up to the Lightning Stakes in a fortnight. The handsome son of Fastnet Rock's desperately narrow second behind champion colt Sepoy in the Coolmore Stakes last spring would have been an agonizing result for connections, with a Group 1 win ensuring the future of Dr. Bateman's flagship galloper at stud. A half-head the other way and Foxwedge would have been worth many millions more than he already is.

As a result, securing that elusive Group 1 will be O'Shea's sole focus with this horse this campaign, and the Lightning might just be the most suitable race to target. Sepoy showed a hint of vulnerability up the Flemington straight despite still winning (admittedly he may have had enough at that stage of his preparation) and I think Foxwedge will really appreciate the 1000m straight course fresh. O'Shea prides himself on training his gallopers to the minute for big Group 1 assignments and I wouldn't be surprised if this talented colt will be fully wound-up for a first-up assault on the Lightning, with an extra couple of zeros attached to Foxwedge's price-tag the ultimate reward.

Having studied every runner in the TAB's first market, I have settled on my early 'Top 5' for this year's running of the Blue Diamond. 2yo form is obviously very difficult to line up and I have based my assessment more on the 'style' and potential for improvement in the exposed performances to date.

My top pick at this stage is Mick Price's More Than Ready filly SAMAREADY ($17). I though she was excellent on debut up the Flemington straight and really like the way she extended when asked for an effort. Mrs Gray took some ground off her in the run to the line but she wasn't knocked around by Newitt all and looked to my eye as if she could have won by a much bigger margin. The form has held up well enough with Mrs Gray running some excellent races against some of the other contending 2YO's. Mick Price is an excellent trainer of younger horses and I detected a fair amount of stable confidence about this girl in his post-race interview. Another huge plus is that she was immediately freshened after her debut with the Blue Diamond firmly in mind. At $17 Samaready represents a touch of value and should give us a good run for our money.

Tony McEvoy's JIMANDO ($6) showed some devastating acceleration in claiming the Debutants LR at Caulfield very impressively. He charged right away from them in the final 100m to win by 3.3L, defeating amongst others the easy Maribyrnong Plate (G3) winner Real Stolle. He looks quite bombproof and must go in.

HUSSOUSA ($13) put on a great display of sustained speed to lead the Gimcrack field before holding off Snipzu to win easily. You got the impression that there was plenty left up this Patinack filly's sleeve, scoring with plenty in reserve.

MEIDUNG ($6) looked great winning on debut for Peter Snowden at Rosehill, showing good tactical speed to share the lead at a strong tempo before demonstrating a strong kick in the straight.

I'll throw in ROLLING ZONE ($51) as my roughie. I really liked this Strategic colt's debut behind Cambiaso in the Maribyrnong Trial (LR) when he was badly help up between the 400m and the 200m. He was then found to be shin sore after failing when heavily supported behind Jimando in the Debutants (LR). Is definitely worth a ticket at that price if his problems are behind him...

I'll also be keeping an eye on Jim Conlan's nice filly RHANDARA ($51), who was very strong late on debut behind Applegate, and the well-bred unraced Waterhouse filly THE BROKEN SHORE ($31), who trialled stylishly.

Below are all the horses listed at $51 or under in the Blue Diamond market. I have tracked down the sales price (for the non-homebreds) where possible. Good luck to all those having an early speculative wager!

RACEWAY $4.40
More Than Ready x Claws; chestnut rig
Gai Waterhouse
1 start: 4L 1st of 11 over 1000m at Warwick Farm, defeating Agueda and Emperor Of Rome.

JIMANDO $6.00
Commands x Finko; bay colt
Tony McEvoy
Cost $50,000 at Magic Millions Premier
1 start: 3.3L 1st of 14 over 1000m at Caulfield (Debutants LR) defeating Princeton Miss and Planet Voyage.

MEIDUNG $6.00
Bernardini x Amish; bay filly
Peter Snowden
1 start: 2.8L 1st of 12 over 1100m at Rosehill, defeating Dances On Stars and Kyoto.

REAL STOLLE $9.00
Elusive Quality x Lemon Ruski; chestnut filly
John Thompson
2 starts: 5.4L 5th of 14 over 1000m at Caulfield (Debutants LR) behind Jimando; 1.3L 1st of 16 over 1000m at Flemington (Maribyrnong Plate G3), defeating Andre Roo Hoo and Magnus Reign.

CAMBIASO $10.00
More Than Ready x Flying Alpha; bay colt
Danny O'Brien
Cost $300,000 at Magic Millions Premier
1 start: 0.5L 1st of 13 over 1000m at Flemington (Maribyrnong Trial LR), defeating Imprimis and Little Red Corvette.

APPLEGATE $13.00
Exceed And Excel x Klamath Falls; bay filly
Peter Snowden
1 start: 0.1L 1st of 16 over 1000m at Flemington (Emirates LR), defeating Snitzerland and Alezan Thunder.

HUSSOUSA $13.00
Husson x Petousa; grey-brown filly
John Thompson
1 start: 1.5L first of 12 over 1000m at Randwick (Gimcrack LR), defeating Snipzu and Jade Marauder.

NO LOOKING BACK $15.00
Redoute's Choice x Mirror Mirror; bay filly
Gai Waterhouse
Cost $500,000 at Magic Millions Premier
2 starts: 0.8L 1st of 10 over 1000m at Warwick Farm, defeating Blazing Snitzel; 0.3L 2nd of 16 over 1200m at Gold Coast (Magic Millions 2YO Classic) behind Driefontein.

ARMED FOR ACTION $16.00
Exceed And Excel x Brave And Bold; bay filly
Anthony Freedman
Cost $90,000 at Australian Easter Yearling Sale
1 start: 3.8L 1st of 5 over 1000m at Mornington, defeating Road Trippin and Bern Bee.

SAMAREADY $17.00
More Than Ready x Samar; brown filly
Mick Price
Cost $150,000 at Australian Easter Yearling Sale
1 start: 1.3L 1st of 8 over 1000m at Flemington, defeating Mrs Gray and Alzora.

MEMBERS JOY $17.00
Hussonet x Rosa's Spur; grey filly
Robert Smerdon
Cost $85,000 at Magic Millions Premier
1 start: 2.5L 1st of 5 over 900m at Sandown, defeating Jacaranda Avenue and Mrs Gray.

RUSAMBO $21.00
Elusive Quality x Lobola; bay colt
Peter Snowden
2 starts: 1.5L 3rd of 11 over 1000m at Randwick (Breeders Plate G3) behind Pierro; 2.5L 2nd of 13 over 1000m at Randwick (Victory Vein) behind Amorino.

SESSIONS $21.00
Lonhro x Seances; brown colt
Peter Snowden
1 trial: 1st of 6 (0.5L) at Cant, defeating Rise To The Top and Ashokan.

MRS GRAY $26.00
Husson Lightning x Body Corporate; bay filly
David Hayes
Cost $95,000 at Western Australian Premier
4 starts (4-0-2-1): 1.3L 2nd of 8 over 1000m at Flemington behind Samaready; 1L 2nd of 13 over 1100m at Rosehill behind Amorino; 2L 5th of 16 over 1200m at Gold Coast (Magic Million 2YO Classic) behind Driefontein.

REPOUSSER $26.00
Choisir x Spurn; bay gelding
Byron Cozamanis
Cost $52,500 at Melbourne Premier
1 start: 0.8L 1st of 7 over 1000m at Moonee Valley, defeating Belisima.

SABIE $26.00
Exceed And Excel x Rondavel; chestnut filly
Anthony Freedman
2 starts: 5L 1st of 8 over 1000m at Cranbourne defeating Shivers; 2.5L 1st of 8 over 1000m at Moonee Valley, defeating Demasheen and Infinite Fortune
.
THE BROKEN SHORE $31.00
Hussonet x Shantha's Choice; chestnut filly
Gai Waterhouse
1 trial: 1st of 8 (3.3L) at Warwick Farm beating Gone Platinum.

AGUEDA $31.00
General Nediym x Smoothie; chestnut filly
Anthony Cummings
2 starts: 1.3L 3rd of 11 at Kembla Grange behind Genteel; 4L 2nd of 11 over 1000m at Warwick Farm behind Raceway.

TORMENTED $31.00
Charge Forward x Anapine; bay filly
Mark Kavanagh
Cost $160,000 at Australian Easter Yearling Sale
Unraced/no trials

TIMELY TRUCE $31.00
Brief Truce x Gal Express; bay gelding
Ricky Maund
2 starts: 1.5L 2nd of 9 over 1000m at Sandown (Merson Cooper LR) behind Maximus Moonard; 2.2L 4th of 8 over 1100m at Caulfield behind Ferment.

PIERRO $31.00
Lonhro x Miss Right Note; bay colt
Gai Waterhouse
Cost $230,000 at Magic Millions Premier
1 start: 0.2L 1st of 11 over 1000m at Randwick (Breeders Plate LR) beating Hidden Warrior and Rusambo.

FERRARI STAR $51.00
Testa Rossa x Star Hit; brown colt
Tony McEvoy
Cost $70,000 at Melbourne Premier
2 trials: 1st of 4 (1L) Murray Bridge; 3rd of 5 (btn 2.5L) Morph Parks behind Miss Intensus.

FAST AND LOOSE $51.00
Fastnet Rock x Siren Miss; bay filly
Mark Kavanagh
Cost $360,000 at Australian Easter Yearling Sale
1 start: 2.6L 5th of 8 over 1050m at Morphettville behind Little Ducati.

NARCISSUS $51.00
Exceed And Excel x Hasna; brown colt
Peter Snowden
Cost $290,000 at Australian Easter Yearling Sale
Unraced/no trials

MALASUN $51.00
Red Ransom x Malapert; bay filly
Mick Price
Cost $80,000 at Melbourne Premier
Unraced/no trials

LIBERTY ROCK $51.00
Rock Of Gibraltar x Staten Island; bay colt
Peter Moody
Cost $110,000 at Magic Millions Premier
Unraced/no trials

ZUMOOROODA $51.00
Encosta de Lago x Murjana; bay filly
Mick Price
Unraced/no trials

STRIVE TO EXCEL $51.00
Redoute's Choice x Suggestive; bay colt
Peter Moody
Cost $600,000 at Australian Easter Yearling Sale
Unraced/no trials

SEASIDE $51.00
Redoute's Choice x Living Spirit; bay filly
Peter Snowden
Unraced/no trials

TUSCAN HAZE $51.00
Flying Spur x Halibery; bay filly
Mick Price
Unraced/no trials

ZAHEE $51.00
Dylan Thomas x Zaheeya; bay colt
Mick Price
Unraced/no trials

WINGARA $51.00
Encosta de Lago x In The Past; bay colt
Peter Moody
Cost $200,000 at the Australian Easter Yearling Sale
Unraced/no trials

ROLLING ZONE $51.00
Strategic x Honest; bay colt
John Sadler
Cost $25,000 at Magic Millions Winter Weanling Sale
2 starts: 2.5L 5th of 13 over 1000m at Flemington (Maribyrnong Trial LR) behind Cambiaso (held up badly); 11L 13th of 16 over 1000m at Caulfield (Debutants LR) behind Jimando (pulled up shin sore).

PRINCETON MISS $51.00
Not A Single Doubt x Karalee; bay filly
Robbie Griffiths
Cost $150,000 at Magic Millions Summer Sale
2 starts: 3.3L 2nd of 14 over 1000m at Caulfield (Debutantes LR) behind Jimando; 11.1L

PRINCESS ROYALE $51.00
Casino Prince x Charybdis; bay filly
Cost $85,000 at Magic Millions Premier
Unraced/no trials

PRONTO PRONTO $51.00
Snitzel x Teresa; bay colt
Jason Warren
Cost $160,000 at New Zealand Premier
Unraced/no trials

RHANDARA $51.00
Redoute's Choice x Bhandara; bay filly
Jim Conlan
Cost $430,000 at Australian Easter Yearling Sale
1 start: 1.5L 4th of 16 over 1000m at Flemington (Emirates LR) behind Applegate. Made strong late ground from well back.

RECRIMINATE $51.00
Redoute's Choice x Castellina; brown colt
Mick Price
Cost $70,000 at Melbourne Premier
Unraced/no trials

EXIMIUS $51.00
Exceed And Excel x Allegra; chestnut colt
Mick Price
Cost $100,000 at Melbourne Premier
Unraced/no trials

CAVES $51.00
Bernardini x From The Cellar; bay filly
Anthony Freedman
Unraced/no trials

BUSH AVIATOR $51.00
Stratum x Sister Patricia; chestnut colt
Danny O'Brien
Cost $140,000 at Magic Millions Premier
Unraced/no trials

AL ANEED $51.00
More Than Ready x Al Anood; bay colt
Mick Price
Unraced/no trials

ANDRE ROO HOO $51.00
Written Tycoon x Solar Song; chestnut colt
Robbie Lang
2 starts: 1.3L 2nd of 16 over 1000m at Flemington (Maribyrnong Plate G3) behind Real Stolle; 1.6L 3rd of 9 over 1000m at Sandown (Merson Cooper LR) behind Maximus Moonard.

DEAR DEMI $51.00
Dehere x Shirley; bay filly
Clarry Connors
Cost $130,000 at Magic Millions Premier
3 starts (3-0-0-1): latest 6.6L 4th of 11 over 1000m at WFarm behind Raceway.

BERN BEE $51.00
Bernardini x Oshi; bay colt
Mark Kavanagh
1 start: 9.8L 3rd of 5 over 1005m at Mornington behind Armed For Action.

BEAUFORT $51.00
Exceed And Excel x Whistles; bay colt
Peter Snowden
Unraced/no trials

BOOM BABY BOOM $51.00
Shaft x Mondo Rock; bay gelding
Anthony Freedman
Cost $35,000 at Magic Millions Summer Sale
Unraced/no trials

DEB'S DELIGHT $51.00
Lonhro x Assertive Sound; brown filly
Peter Moody
Cost $280,000 at Melbourne Premier
Unraced/no trials

DANGER CLOSE $51.00
Written Tycoon x Galactic Honour; bay colt
Jason Warren
Cost $36,000 at Autumn Yearling Sale (Inglis VIC)
Unraced/no trials

COLLIDE $51.00
Bradbury's Luck x Oh Best Beloved; grey gelding
David Hayes
Cost $36,000 at Magic Millions Summer Sale
1 trial: 1st of 6 (2.5L) at Bendigo, defeating The Ancient Order and Sylvan Arc.

LITTLE CRITTER $51.00
Court Command x Gotha; bay colt
Tony McEvoy
Cost $40,000 at Magic Millions Premier
5 starts: (5-1-2-0); latest 15.9L 15th of 16 over 1200m at Gold Coast (Magic Millions Classic) behind Driefontein.

COINS $51.00
Hard Spun x Monetary; bay filly
Peter Snowden
1 start: 2L 4th of 9 over 1000m at Sandown (Merson Cooper LR) behind Maximus Moonard. Featured heavily in stewards report.

COMMANDING JEWEL $51.00
Commands x Regard; brown filly
Leon Corstens
Cost $205,000 at Magic Millions Premier
Unraced/no trials

CLINTON AFFAIR $51.00
Snitzel x Watch My Lips; brown colt
Peter Moody
Cost $80,000 at Melbourne Premier
Unraced/no trials

Greetings all!

I make my triumphant return this fine evening after a hiatus of sorts (prison food really isn't as bad as popular culture would have you believe...), excitedly anticipating the return of some quality gallopers as they strive for a share in the rapidly approaching mid-summer/autumn riches. I'll be posting my comprehensive early preview of the 2012 Blue Diamond Stakes tomorrow afternoon, but first, here are a trio of horses that I've got my eye on for the autumn:

MOMENT OF CHANGE
This 3yo looked extremely good in his pair of spring appearances, and I think Peter Moody did the right thing for the horse's future in bypassing the Caulfield Guineas. The son of Barely A Moment strolled home on debut at Murtoa, destroying a moderate field by 10L. Impressive wins are commonplace when Moody juveniles step out for their first race start in the country, but it was the commanding nature of his next outing that suggests Moment Of Change has the makings of a top-liner. Over 1300m at Sandown, Linda Meech again led the field before slipping clear to win by 3.8L with ridiculous ease, leaving subsequent Caulfield winner and stakes-competitive Meethaq wallowing in his wake. Moment Of Change was barely asked for an effort that day and he most certainly appears 'untapped'. The trainer cited maturity issues when opting to bypass the Guineas, but the autumn version of that race should be firmly on the agenda this preparation. A most exciting prospect.

MANAWANUI
It doesn't take a genius to recognise the immense talent within Manawanui, but I think he can emerge as a genuine weight-for-age force in the spring. Indeed, Ron Leemon's gelding is my very early tip for the Cox Plate. Though he didn't quite stay the journey of the Derby, his run in the AAMI Vase was ultra-impressive (albeit against a poor field), and based on that performance I think he could have given Pinker Pinker's Cox Plate a shake with no weight on his back. Connections will take aim at Australia's weight-for-age championship this year, however, and so they should, as this horse definitely possesses the turn of foot required to win at the highest level. Leemon has indicated that Manawanui will have only a light autumn, with the Cox Plate the only real aim for the year. Despite not being set for the autumn, he sprints so well fresh that I'll be backing him anyway...

METALLURGICAL
Perhaps an odd choice given he has failed to win a stakes race from 5 attempts, but this beautifully-bred son of Redoute's Choice (out of Lady Capel) has been getting better and better with age. The $2,200,000 purchase showed only moderate ability in his first couple of campaigns but really started to hit his straps last winter, running a trio of slashing seconds in stakes grade in Queensland before running an ENORMOUS race in the G2 Salinger Stakes during the spring carnival. He finished 4th behind Sister Madly - beaten 1L - but never really saw daylight and couldn't unleash his big sprint. On that performance, Metallurgical would have to come into contention in some of the feature autumn sprints (the one's Black Caviar isn't contesting, of course). I'm not sure what plans John Thompson has for this galloper (or even if he'll be campaigning this autumn), but the 5yo's style of racing looks very much suited to the Flemington straight. Perhaps a Newmarket Handicap isn't out of the question? Definitely worth a speculative wager in early markets if he shows up...

Others to follow this autumn are STREAMA (class filly), SOFT SAND (could be anything!) and the desperately unlucky Victoria Derby runner-up INDUNA (should he follow the AJC Derby trail). I will be posting weekly from here on in so be sure to check in regularly!

The Western Australian Turf Club have poured plenty of money into their Group 1 races of late, and though they haven't managed to attract any genuine 'A graders' from the eastern states this time around, the turn-out remains solid. Kiwi He's Remarkable, Victorian Avienus and the Adelaide-based Spacecraft add an extra dimension to the G1 Railway Stakes. Last year, the unpredictable Tale of the Cat gelding Gathering afforded Patinack Farm a rare Group 1 win with his runaway win, leading all the way under Craig Williams. Some very well credentialed eastern states gallopers, including Trusting, Black Piranha and Sniper's Bullet, were among the well-beaten brigade. It is the locals, however, who appear to be holding all the aces this year. Grant Williams' 5yo Ranger deserves favouritism after his brilliant performance in the G2 Lee Steere over 1400m, charging home out wide from near last to win by a widening 2L. The son of Testa Rossa will find some stiff opposition in the form of rising star Luckygray, however. This horse really could be anything, absolutely murdering a G3 field in the Asian Beau over 1400m. The flashy grey has won 6 out of 8 and looks very much like a Group 1 horse.

With the added bonus of the G1 Winterbottom Stakes and a good competitive WA Guineas, Saturday out west looks the perfect tonic to forget the horrors of the carnival just gone, and focus on a new one.

On Melbourne Cup day 2012, I propose that Australia unites against the staying peril from abroad that threatens to overwhelm our nation's greatest horserace. Across the oceans they come for us, come to steal our gold with their superior thoroughbreds, and our women with their effortless class and names like Christophe and Alain. In this year's Melbourne Cup, the first seven horses over the line had not set foot on this big island before this spring (last year's French victor excluded). The much improved Niwot was the only galloper to fly the Aussie colours, running out of his skin for eighth (and his father's an Irishman anyway!). Indeed, if Niwot is this cavalry's most feared warhorse, then our children's future looks decidedly grim... So instead of waiting for the big studs to finally breed a half decent stayer (or annex one from New Zealand and claim it as our own), it's time for the people to take matters into their own filthy hands. That's right, the peasants are revolting. Viva la revolucion!

My proposal is thus:

Instead of wasting your token $5 on next year's Cup day office or barbeque sweep, I suggest every Australian adult instead donates their sweep cash to my National Stayers Fund. The money within will then be used to pay the service fees of the best staying sires in Australia and New Zealand (if any of these mythical white creatures - complete with long, pointed, spiraling horn - do, in fact, exist). $5 from just 15 million parochial Australians, for example, would net $75,000,000 for our coffers. At $100,000 per tryst, that's enough for 750 individual Zabeel matings (although we wouldn't obviously ask that much of the old chap in one frenetic season). A handpicked panel, including myself and Francesca Cumani, will select the local mares best suited to producing the finest possible stayers out of these couplings, and with the offer of a free service and a better future for this nation, we must hope that the breeders embrace our concept and duly accept (said offer will be articulated in the standard Godfather 'brains/signature on contract' methodology). We shall then sit back and wait, for few Melbourne Cups have been won without patience. No National Stayers Fund horses shall race at two, with only the most developed being afforded light preparations up to a mile and a quarter in their three-year-old year. Our army of dour horseflesh shall subsist on the finest feed and be led by strapper Robert Duval on bridles of finely spun gold (we will take Macedon Lodge by force if we have to). Ride of the Valkyries will be played into their barns 24 hours a day. All National Stayers Fund horses are to be trained by Mick Kent, with Glen Boss receiving the pick of the mounts.

As a people, we must act now and embrace the National Stayers Fund. Fight the battle that must be fought; build the dikes of courage. It is my greatest hope that one of our graduates will progress sufficiently to peak on the first Tuesday in November, 2018, and so reclaim national pride with a single crushing blow against the marauders. "Yes we can."