PP Q&A

Answer:

I'm in total agreement. I suspect it's money. The starter is under instructions to try to get every horse in and to start a full field. Any withdrawals and the money is refunded (which we don't want to do, do we???).

So, and I suspect the race you refer to is Rostova's, she was fitted out with new shoes, went in, came out, wandered around, had a towel-down, went back in... and meanwhile how many fillies and mares (flighty at the best of times!) got all stirred up?

The answer is "I don't know", but it's very frustrating and it's about time punters shot off emails to the various clubs, grizzling about it.

ANSWER:

Yes I do, with some reservation.

Picking the winners in the upcoming top races (the Group Ones, I mean) won't be easy. Often they won't pay value anyway.

But the next rung down on the ladder is often a better level of investment for the average punter or even the semi-pro. Favourites tend to be overbet by the general public, especially on big days.

So many of the visiting punters want to pick the winner. That's all that matters. Value? What's that?

So I argue (and have done so for years) that, in the slightly lesser races on the program, the favourites will be hammered. As I say, people just want to be able to tell their friends that they backed the winner.

You're more likely to get $10 about a $7 chance there than in the BMW or the Slipper, for example.

The reservation referred to above is that 9/1 about a 6/1 chance is only genuine value if your opinion says it is; and of course your opinion had better be worth something! If it represents the mere hope that you can back a longer priced winner, then it's of little consequence what class level you bet at.

But if you know your stuff, and you've done your professional homework, then I would argue that a genuine overlay is easier to find in a lower grade of race. Remember though that we're still talking about high class racing.

Patience comes into this in a big way. Staying out of the big ones to back the next-in-line races is hard. Very hard. Sometimes it's almost impossible for the average punter.

I guess it can depend on what your real (and primary) reason for betting is. Fun or profit, excitement or cold hard calculation?

It's your call.

Answer:

Of course this is a matter of opinion. The people who backed Makybe Diva, or Van der Hum, or Subzero, as three Melbourne Cup winning examples, would probably argue the contrary, but my view is that IF you can, you avoid race meetings with questionable surfaces.

System users may not be able to. But the best systems have already assessed all track conditions, and the effects - if any - on their success. So that's really not the issue.

If you can redirect your betting for that day, chances are that (long term) you'll be in front. With the wetter months coming up, and the strong chances of dampness in Sydney and Brisbane, we need to have these things on side before the racing commences. It can be done, as we very successfully showed a couple of seasons back with Riva San in Brisbane.

But it's also hairy. The extent to which a track is "slow" can be disguised to get bigger betting response from the public. I believe that it is, whenever possible. That's my opinion, based on observation over many years; I can't prove it.

So, all in all, if you don't KNOW how the wet tracks will affect the horses, best stay out!

Answer:

A good question. I checked the two you mentioned and sure enough they're identical.

It could be coincidence of course, but that's a long bow to draw.

I guess there's nothing to stop them having a discussion and deciding on their single board.

Makes the idea of competition rather silly, though, doesn't it?

Answer:

As I answered privately, no, I don't, but I do recall we did some intense research on horses that won at least three of their first four starts and were unplaced overall.

So their worst figures (three wins and a third) could add up to 6.

It was a long time ago (I'm trying to forget "years") but I do recall the excellent topliner King Phoenix came into the figures.

I think our conclusion was that a significant number of horses with these initial figures went on to get through to their eleventh or twelfth races without missing a place.

That isn't set in concrete and it may be a little damaged by its age, but as I recall that was the situation. It's something for system players to tease out, anyway.