Half the Field Gone in One Fell Swoop: The Brisbane StampedeHave you any records as to how you fare in the Brisbane carnivals? I do, and I'm OK. Last year helped me a lot as I supported Riva San in both the Oaks and the Derby, but I gave her a donation on Saturday at Doomben. Maybe she doesn't like Doomben, but if so she doesn't like it in a big way!This year looks to me pretty difficult. It's not the weather so much as the balance. Apart from the Cat, things look so even. The compressed handica
Half the Field Gone in One Fell Swoop: The Brisbane Stampede
Have you any records as to how you fare in the Brisbane carnivals? I do, and I'm OK. Last year helped me a lot as I supported Riva San in both the Oaks and the Derby, but I gave her a donation on Saturday at Doomben. Maybe she doesn't like Doomben, but if so she doesn't like it in a big way!
This year looks to me pretty difficult. It's not the weather so much as the balance. Apart from the Cat, things look so even. The compressed handicaps mean you're faced with unproven types getting small concessions from the top horses. That should lead to wins from the horses higher up the handicaps, as in theory they're better horses and because of one or two outstanding horses there are several crowded around the area one or two likograms over the limit.
The trick is to find them.
One fact I haven't seen anyone cite is that there were eight races last weekend on a heavy track, yet not one was won by a horse on the mimimum limit. However, forgetting the big weight for age event and including all others (set weights, allowances and all), consider this:
1. Horses carrying within 3.5 kg of the limit won all the other seven races.
2. Horses carrying within 2kg of the limit won five of the events.
3. Horses carrying 1kg or 0.5kg above the limit won three of the events.
4. And those on the limit won none at all.
It could be that those on the limit - often half the field and more- are not often genuine winning chances.
And of course it could be that I'm wrong. It happens. I'll keep an eye on this, but my first impression is that "limit weight" in the better Brisbane races could well be a pointer for the punter.
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