Is life becoming easier for the punter who likes the classy odds on favourites? So far this autumn it seems like it is as the top notch horses like Black Caviar, Denman and now Typhoon Tracy have resumed their preparation and are undefeated after 4 runs. Classy horses always do well first up, as you would expect, but there is always the niggling doubt about first up runs, especially if the horse is being set for the more prestigious Group 1 races further into their campaigns. I backed Here De An
Is life becoming easier for the punter who likes the classy odds on favourites? So far this autumn it seems like it is as the top notch horses like Black Caviar, Denman and now Typhoon Tracy have resumed their preparation and are undefeated after 4 runs. Classy horses always do well first up, as you would expect, but there is always the niggling doubt about first up runs, especially if the horse is being set for the more prestigious Group 1 races further into their campaigns. I backed Here De Angels to beat Black Caviar when the filly was resuming and on Saturday I had another two small bets against the obvious class runners, Typhoon Tracy and Denman, when I backed Danzylum and Carrara.
The value punters will tell you the "v" word is gospel and overall their argument carries a lot of weight however value has cost me lately. I guess the value punters will suggest betting against the likes of the trio mentioned is a path to betting suicide but is it long term? Over the years I have seen some very short priced top class horses bite the dust when first up and second up early in their campaigns but perhaps I am living too much in the past. Perhaps, because there were less options than seems to be available today, more of the better class runners met each other more often in my early punting days and consequently to win a race you had to be both physically fit and have the ability as well.
However, the wins by the above trio could also highlight they are just simply exceptional horses and I, as the punter, should either leave the race alone or back the short priced favourite and not only enjoy their wins but profit as well. Alas, we punters are always looking for value and if you think a favourite, no matter the class of the animal, might be a fraction soft surely we should take it on, long term.
It will be interesting to see how this trio fare as a betting proposition by the end of their preparations at short odds. At the moment they are killing the value punters but we all know value wins in the long run or does it when betting against true potential champions?