In the podcast I posted today I made mention of backing true favourites but as the focus of the podcast was more on percentages than reasons I thought I would provide some examples of how to find a true favourite. Using "The Sportsman" pre post market as my guide over the five main metropolitan meetings there were 16 pre post favourites quoted at $3.00 or less. If you do not have this paper available use any other market as most will have the same horses on top but if not over the year

In the podcast I posted today I made mention of backing true favourites but as the focus of the podcast was more on percentages than reasons I thought I would provide some examples of how to find a true favourite. Using "The Sportsman" pre post market as my guide over the five main metropolitan meetings there were 16 pre post favourites quoted at $3.00 or less. If you do not have this paper available use any other market as most will have the same horses on top but if not over the year the differences will balance out. You have to draw a line in the sand and I set it at 2/1 ($3.00).

I have been quite brutal with the reasons I have used to eliminate horses from the list of sixteen. The elimination reasons have been 21 days or longer since raced, females versus males, limit weight horses (there weren't any this week), distance (subjective with a couple of horses), track conditions (as of this afternoon) and the ability to either lead or run on the pace (subjective again). In the finish I eliminated 14 of the 16 originals and have been left with two runners at Morphettville on an assumed dead track. The two horse are Tropic Thunder in Race 1 and Bombay Sling in Race 3. If I wanted to be really tough I could have deleted Bombay Sling as he has raced midfield on a couple of occasions but what saved him was that those races were over 1400m or less. In his only 1600m race he was third to the turn and it is only fair I use this race as it is also the race that passed the distance clause.

I might add I will accept a dead track to be a good track as long as the rating is a Dead 4, the current Morphettville rating. However, showers are forecast and if a Dead 5 or worse is posted I will drop both runners. It could be argued Bombay Sling was only beaten 0.8L on a heavy track at Warrnambool two runs ago but my subjective assessment decrees that race was over 1300m thus todays extra 500m causes me concerns. Yes, I am being tough but why shouldn't I be?