Now is as good as any time for all serious punters to start planning for the upcoming Spring carnival in both Melbourne and Sydney. Although the carnival seems quite a time in the distance the reality is the major contenders for the Spring should be in training already and as far as I am concerned one of them has already raced and won last Saturday. This horse is Dreamscape. The question is, "What strategy should I undertake?".There are many paths that can be followed however the first
Now is as good as any time for all serious punters to start planning for the upcoming Spring carnival in both Melbourne and Sydney. Although the carnival seems quite a time in the distance the reality is the major contenders for the Spring should be in training already and as far as I am concerned one of them has already raced and won last Saturday. This horse is Dreamscape. The question is, "What strategy should I undertake?".
There are many paths that can be followed however the first step can be taken this weekend at Caulfield with the running of the first wfa race of the coming carnival, the Sir John Monash Stakes over 1100m.
With wfa races I believe there are three paths you can take. One, do the form as per normal or two, simply back the recognized best horse in the race and forget doing the form. In the Sir John Monash the best horse entered is Orange County (rated 109) and the form horse is Gran Sasso (rated 104) however the punt is not that simple. The "doin' the form" punters may well decide Orange County is the form horse on class.
As we go through the Spring I shall nominate the class horse in every wfa race and in some of the 3yo Set Weights and Set Weights and Penalties events as part of my blogs and podcasts. At the end of the carnivals, towards the end of November, we can sit down and analyze what I have selected, what the punters have selected i.e. the favourite and how the best horse has gone. It should be an interesting study done in real time as we enjoy our own personal punting journey.
The third way to follow these events is to follow a trainer. This involves setting up some sort of file for each trainer of interest and simply making notes of which horses have been nominated, which run and how they go. This Spring I am going to follow several trainers very closely starting with Mick Price, Brian Mayfield Smith and Peter G. Moody on July 18. As I go along the list will increase and will certainly include Peter Snowden and Gai Waterhouse, especially when they travel to Victoria, but along the way others will be added once I assess how many are a comfortable number to track. Oh, yes, a guy called J.B. Cummings can be alloted a spot, as well!!
I guess you can add jockeys if you wish but often enough the top trainers have the same jockeys so you would sort of double dip by adding jockeys. I will leave this up to you at this stage. Perhaps at the end of the carnival we can revisit the jockeys idea with some sort of an eye to the Autumn carnival.
I always look forward with some excitement to this time of the year. There are always new fascinating scenarios to ponder over pre race, then the bets, then the enjoyment of the actual races and then the calculations relevant to the wallet. Hopefully along the way I can help you bypass some wonky selections and reduce the losses accordingly and if a profit can be made that will be even better. Let the journey begin this Saturday.