As punters we should always be on the lookout to bet against perceived poor value and I feel More Joyous meets that criteria in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap. The history books from Caulfield meetings will show Sydney horses racing at this track for the first time have a task ahead of them as some quite simply do not handle the track layout combined with the reverse way of racing. It is one thing backing a 10/1 plus chance at their first start at the track as at least there is handsome payout for
As punters we should always be on the lookout to bet against perceived poor value and I feel More Joyous meets that criteria in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap. The history books from Caulfield meetings will show Sydney horses racing at this track for the first time have a task ahead of them as some quite simply do not handle the track layout combined with the reverse way of racing. It is one thing backing a 10/1 plus chance at their first start at the track as at least there is handsome payout for the risk but anyone telling me $2.40 is value for More Joyous will get a lecture from yours truly outlining that over the spring carnival, somewhere, there will be better bets at that price by a street.
More Joyous is an outstanding mare but apart from the track layout she has a wide barrier to overcome with and a weight that has not been carried to victory since the Cox Plate runner up All Shot won the Toorak in 1972. In her favour, however, is that the minimum weight back in 1972 would have been lower than this years thus her chance of creating weight history is easier than back in All Shot's year. My speed map actually has her getting over fairly easily from barrier 12 but it all depends on how fast the other forward runners in Response, La Rocket, Poor Judge and Avienus go early. More Joyous may have problems getting in but I suspect she will be pushed hard to cross to the lead. The first 100m will be fascinating.
I am going that have a half a unit each way about the two preceding paragraphs by stating if she won I would not be surprised one iota (in fact I have to have her on top form wise) BUT the major part of the punting game is about value and defying risky odds is a long term path to punting suicide. At $6.50 I would rather back Drumbeats to win $100 (around $20) than More Joyous (about $70) with a saver on Spacecraft at around $6.00. Drumbeats gets back in the run, as does Spacecraft, so he is no super bet but the outlay amounts to win $100 between the two is substantial.
My roughie of the race is La Rocket quoted 50/1 with the corporates but I have just snagged 99/1 for the win and 16/1 the place on Betfair and that is just lovely. A perusal of the form guide will show you he won 3rd up, at wfa, last campaign beating Heart Of Dreams and that horse would be nowhere 99/1 in this field.
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